In the week ending 21 Oct, the M1 Brent futures contract fell from highs of $63.56/bbl on 14 Oct to lows of $60.10/bbl on 17 Oct, amidst OPEC and IEA cuts to demand forecasts. A scheduled Trump-Putin meeting further lent a bearish hand, but prices found a floor as the meeting was shelved. Prices then met support at the $60/bbl psychological level as UK sanctions on Russian oil majors emerged, rising to $61.62/bbl on 21 Oct. In contrast, the Nov’25 RBOB swaps crack saw decent strength this week, rising from $12.77/bbl on 15 Oct to $13.82/bbl on 20 Oct. ICE gasoil cracks, like Brent, were initially pressured to the week’s low of $22.29/bbl on 17 Oct before rallying to $24.68/bbl on 21 Oct.
This week in Brent, money managers are anticipated to take a risk-on stance, marginally adding to longs and shorts. In contrast, they are expected to turn risk-off in RBOB futures and gasoil by trimming length and adding to shorts. Producers/merchants are anticipated to be strongly risk-off in RBOB futures but heavily risk-on in Brent and gasoil.
Further detailed information on other categories and contracts can be found in the report.
