Morning Macro 24th October
The precious metals bounce has failed, and the down trend resumes albeit in a volatile market, a classic positioning pain trade, remember last week’s retail panic buying? They’re hurting now. Meanwhile the S+P500 and Nasdaq both rally to just below previous all-time highs. Make or break time, break out attracts new buying, failure sees profit taking and potential double top reversal. (Chart 1, Nasdaq on Bloomberg)
UK September retail sales +0.5% vs -0.2% m/m expected……..Interesting line at the top of the Sept UK retail sales report – “online jewellers reported strong demand for gold”. Better than expected data but UK yields follow the US in highlighting a weakening economy, while the Labour party have a dire by-election result. (Chart 2, UK 10-year yield, Bloomberg)
France October consumer confidence 90 vs 87 expected
French flash PMI meet expectations, but German flash PMIs jump from 52.0 to 53.8 (mfg 49.6, services 54.5)
White House Press Sec says Trump will meet China’s Xi next Thursday.
President Trump: Cancels ALL trade negotiations with Canada
The Trump Administration’s equity purchases are up at least +80%, with two investments nearing +150%. Next up quantum computing stocks. INTC +80.35%, MP +132.67%, LAC +97.35#5, TMQ +148.89&
CHINEXT INDEX UP OVER 3% CHINESE ROBOTICS-RELATED STOCK CONTINUES THEIR RALLIES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON
JPMORGAN SAYS GOLD COULD DOUBLE IN THREE YEARS AND EXCEED $8,000/OZ BY 2028 …… shame they didn’t predict that last year!…..Analysts and traders are different, analysts DON’T manage risk.
Deflation in China’s producer prices for durable consumer goods (blue) is the most extreme since 2004. That’s US tariffs, which are causing goods that would have gone to the US to build up everywhere, including in China. China is going into deep deflation. (Chart 3, @robin_j_brooks)
Data today – Global flash PMIs, US CPI U.S. September CPI with expectations: Headline CPI: +0.4% MoM, +2.9% YoY and Core CPI: +0.3% MoM, +3.1% YoY (excludes food & energy)
