The Jan’26 Brent futures contract initially rose this morning, from $64.25/bbl at 05:00 GMT to $64.77/bbl at 07:00 GMT before reversing to $63.98/bbl at 08:30 GMT. Prices have since recovered to $64.58/bbl at 10:30 GMT (time of writing). In the news, local media outlets have reported Ukrainian drone strikes on the NS-Oil refinery (capacity 300kt/y) in the Ulyanovsk region. Regional governor Alexei Russkikh has said on Telegram that the attack caused “no significant” damage. Drones also targeted a Stavrolen petrochemical plant in Budyonnovsk, which is a part of Russia’s Lukoil group, though Reuters has been unable to confirm these reports independently. In India, state-run refinery Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd has no immediate plans to purchase Russian crude due to US sanction risks, per a company executive. In Japan, the Nekkei business daily has reported that Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi told US President Trump that banning Russian energy imports would be a challenge. Citing government officials, the report stated that PM Takaichi has asked Trump for an understanding of Japan’s energy needs. Elsewhere, the American Petroleum Institute has estimated that US crude inventories saw a larger-than-expected drop of 4mb in the week ending 24 Oct (estimated 2.9mb). According to Oilprice calculations of API data, this puts US crude oil inventories at a net loss of 6.4mb for the year. In other news, a report by Deloitte has stated that Trump’s tariff spree will impact the oil and gas industry in 2026, estimating delays of around $50 billion in final investment decisions and offshore project starts. Finally, at the time of writing, the front month Jan/Feb’26 and 6-month Jan/Jul’26 spreads are at $0.40/bbl and $0.58/bbl, respectively.
