The Jan’26 Brent futures gapped higher above $65/bbl on Monday morning’s open, seeing highs of $65.30/bbl around 06:40 GMT before sliding towards $64.50/bbl by 09:15 GMT (time of writing). OPEC+ agreed on Sunday to raise output by 137kb/d in December but will pause the output hike in Q1 next year, especially considering the seasonal demand weakness. In other news, Chinese oil refiners (including state-owned giant and smaller private refiners) are buying fewer Russian cargos, which has seen ESPO prices decline, with Rystad estimating around 400kb/d affected by the buyers’ strike. BPCL has switched to Abu Dhabi’s Upper Zakum for December as new US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil force Indian refiners to trim Russian intake and turn to Middle Eastern spot barrels. At the ADIPEC energy conference in Abu Dhabi, UAE officials said oil demand is set to rise into 2026, supported by energy needs from data-centres and AI, with OPEC+ pausing planned output increases to avoid oversupply and preserve investment momentum amid sanctions-driven uncertainty around Russian output. Finally, the front (Jan/Feb) and 6-month (Jan/Jul) Brent futures spreads are at $0.54/bbl and $1.16/bbl, respectively.
