Morning Macro 13th November
Silver hits a new all-time high, gold and equities rally with S&P500 now within 1% of an all-time high as Trump signs legislation to end the longest government shutdown in US history. Brent falls 3.7% while UK bond yields remain on the cycle lows on more weaker than expected data, GDP this time. And some relief in Australia with stronger employment data, with the unemployment rate falling to 4.3%.
Slowing trend in UK GDP growth since H1 2024. Just +0.1% QoQ in Q3, and flat on a per capita basis. GDP deflator at +3.8% YoY undermining relatively strong nominal GDP growth. The UK is in a private sector recession due to disastrous interventionist policies. (Chart 1, @Frencheconomics)
US Card Spending Rises Most Since Early 2024, BofA Data Show – Bloomberg ….. meanwhile regarding credit card debt, over 12% of balances are now 90+ days delinquent — the highest in 14 years. with interest rates above 21%
U.S. 71% believe that unemployment will go higher over the next 12 months, the highest level in 45 years
FED ’s Perli Says Won’t Be Long Before Fed Starts Buying Assets – Bloomberg …..
*FED’S COLLINS FAVORS HOLDING RATES STEADY ‘FOR SOME TIME’
*COLLINS: SEE RELATIVELY HIGH BAR FOR FURTHER EASING NEAR TERM
GOLDMAN SACHS: GLOBAL STOCKS TO RETURN 7.7% ANNUALLY OVER THE NEXT DECADE
GOLDMAN: U.S. STOCKS TO TRAIL GLOBAL PEERS OVER NEXT DECADE: Goldman Sachs strategist Peter Oppenheimer expects U.S. equities to post the weakest returns among major regions over the next 10 years, projecting 6.5% annual gains for the S&P 500.
*DEPT OF ENERGY: BUYING ROUGHLY 1 MILLION BARRELS OF CRUDE OIL
While S+P500 sits just 1% below all-time high we continue to see a wobble in the AI power generation theme. Uranium sits 15.7% from it’s high (having rallied 279% since April) and CoreWeave falls again (cloud computing company purpose-built for artificial intelligence workloads) now down 53.3% from its June high……
Meanwhile MORGAN STANLEY WARNS OF U.S. POWER SHORTAGE FOR DATA CENTERS BY 2028 Morgan Stanley says surging AI demand could create a power shortfall of up to 20% — about 13–44 GW — for U.S. data centres through 2028.
A staggering statistic. Americans aged 70 and above now own 39% of all stocks and mutual funds (which mostly invest in equities), almost twice as much as was common from 1989 to 2009.(Chart 2, Federal Reserve)
White House: There will be NO U.S. CPI and Payrolls data for October.
