Feb’26 Brent futures reached a high of $63.74/bbl at 08.37 GMT this morning before slipping to $63.45/bbl at 10.32 GMT (time of writing). OPEC+ agreed to leave oil output levels unchanged for the first quarter of 2026. Despite easing some cuts earlier this year, the group still has more than 3 mb/d of reductions in place to prevent a potential supply glut. Ministers also approved a new mechanism to independently assess each country’s maximum production capacity, which will be used to set fairer output baselines from 2027. The move reflects ongoing tensions within the group, as members with increasing capacity seek higher quotas, while others struggle to maintain their output levels. Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro has urged OPEC to help protect Venezuela’s vast oil reserves from what he described as growing and illegal threats from the United States. In a letter to OPEC and OPEC+ members, he accused the US of attempting to “seize” Venezuela’s oil reserves. He called on the bloc to act to safeguard the “balance of the international energy market.” The appeal comes amid tensions after a statement by US President Trump declaring Venezuelan airspace closed, a move Caracas condemned as a “colonialist threat.” Swiss trading firm Gunvor is exploring US oil and gas asset deals to strengthen ties with the Trump administration, according to Reuters sources. The company had previously attempted a $22 billion purchase of Lukoil’s international assets, but Washington signalled it would block the deal, prompting Gunvor to withdraw. Now, investing in US energy assets could help improve its standing in the US while supporting the expansion of independent producers. India may reduce its imports of Russian crude by about 50%, according to former Foreign Minister Kanwal Sibal. He said flows have already declined and will continue to fall as New Delhi adjusts to US sanctions pressure, though some Russian oil will still enter the market. Sibal added that both countries are likely to seek ways to circumvent restrictions and maintain at least limited trade. India has resumed importing crude from Guyana as it seeks alternatives to Russian barrels amid tighter US sanctions. Two supertankers, Cobalt Nova and Olympic Lion, departed Guyana in late November carrying a combined 4mb, marking India’s first such crude shipments from the country since 2021. Finally, at the time of writing, the front-month Feb/Mar’26 and 6-month Feb/Aug’26 spreads are at $0.43/bbl and $0.85/bbl, respectively.
