The Feb’26 Brent Futures Contract fell from $61.56/bbl at 13:22 GMT to $60.85/bbl at 16:30 GMT. Prices have since recovered slightly to $61.04/bbl at 17:20 GMT. In the news, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has raised the possibility of a referendum or elections to let Ukrainians decide on any territorial concessions in eastern Donbas, under rising US pressure to accept a Trump administration peace plan. Russia is demanding Ukraine withdraw forces from all of Donbas, including areas it has failed to capture, but Zelenskiy insists Kyiv will not simply surrender territory. In other news, OPEC’s latest report projects that global oil supply and demand will be nearly balanced in 2026, unlike the IEA which predicted a 3 mb/d hike. OPEC+ production reached 43.06 mb/d in November, just 60 kb/d above expected 2026 demand levels. The group plans to pause output increases in early 2026 amid oversupply fears. Russia’s Lukoil is leaning toward US bank Xtellus Partners’ bid for its $22Bn global assets because it offers a cashless swap, returning US-held Lukoil securities to the company. The US Treasury extended Lukoil’s deadline to sell by January 17 after sanctioning it and Rosneft to pressure Moscow over Ukraine. Xtellus’ proposal is more complex, requiring disclosure of share ownership and potential approval from President Putin due to Russia’s share-trading ban. Finally, the front-month Feb/Mar’26 and 6-month Feb/Aug’26 spreads are at $0.24/bbl and $0.42/bbl respectively.
