The Feb’26 Brent futures contract eased this morning from $61.48/bbl at 06:30 GMT to $61.14/bbl at 10:00 GMT (time of writing). In the news, official data show that Chinese refiners processed 14.9mb/d of crude oil in November, a slight decrease m/m partly due to maintenance. However, independent refiners have also reportedly boosted their runs after new crude import quotas were issued, which is likely to maintain strong output rates in December. Elsewhere, Reuters reported that oil tanker rates are expected to stay high in the first half of 2026 due to an ageing global fleet and an increasing number of vessels affected by Western sanctions. Due to high demand by OPEC and its allies, the cost of shipping oil in recent weeks has risen by roughly $130k per day for VLCCs. Next year, VLCC fleet utilisation is projected to increase to 92%, reaching the highest level since 2019, up from 89.5% in 2025. In other news, Kpler data suggests that Venezuelan crude exports are set to fall to 702kb/d in December, the lowest level since May. This decrease follows the US’s intensified efforts to restrict Venezuelan oil shipments aboard the dark fleet. In South Korea, petrochemical company DL Chemical has proposed shutting down Yeochun NCC Co.’s No. 1 plant (capacity 900kt) under a restructuring plan. In macro, the BOE and BOJ are both anticipated to announce rate hikes this week; meanwhile, the ECB, Riksbank, and Norway’s Norges Bank are expected to keep interest rates on hold. Finally, at the time of writing, the front-month Feb/Mar’26 and 6-month Feb/Aug’26 spreads are at $0.29/bbl and $0.52/bbl, respectively.
