The front-month (Feb’26) Brent futures contract rose to a high of $62.15/bbl at 13:50 GMT this afternoon, but has since eased to $61.85/bbl at 17:25 GMT (time of writing), meeting support at $61.60/bbl at circa 16:00 GMT. This afternoon’s support stems from a rising risk of disruption to Venezuelan oil exports amid the US’ pursuit of an oil tanker near Venezuela, marking the third such operation this month. Tanker loadings in Venezuela have reportedly eased on 22 Dec, with most ships moving oil cargoes only between domestic ports. According to LSEG monitoring data, some tankers approaching Venezuela’s coast, either to load oil exports or to deliver naphtha imports, have also made U-turns or suspended navigation, awaiting further instructions. Elsewhere, according to Reuters, Russia’s Gazprom expects natural gas exports to China via the Power of Siberia Pipeline to have risen by around 25% y/y to 38.7 bcm in 2025, exceeding the pipeline’s planned annual capacity of 38 bcm. However, as a note, Russia’s economy ministry estimates that revenue from gas exports to China will be 30-40% lower than European exports in 2025-28. Meanwhile, US oil and gas firms plan to keep capital spending flat or slightly lower in 2026, according to a survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, as they struggle with lower oil prices and heightened uncertainty. Finally, research provider Rhodium Group expects China’s economy to grow by just 2.5% to 3% in 2025, driven by a decline in fixed asset investment in the second half of 2025. However, Chinese officials are expected to announce that the country successfully met its full-year growth target of 5% when they gather in March 2026 for an annual parliamentary session and unveil the next five-year plan. In 2026, the Rhodium Group expects China’s growth to be 1% and 2.5%, respectively, far below the IMF’s forecast of 4.5%. Finally, at the time of writing, the Feb/Mar’26 and the six-month Feb/Aug’26 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.47/bbl and $1.02/bbl, respectively.
