The North Sea is flipping and flopping between being driven by buyers and sellers in a pattern as decipherable as Trump’s moods. It leapt in late September, flattened for a while, dumped hard in mid-October and rebounded in the late month sessions.
The Saudis cut the highly anticipated OSPs for Asia by $1.20 for Extra Light and Light grades, and for Medium and Heavy by $1.40. They held OSPs to Europe (both NWE and Med) unchanged but cut across the board by 50c for the US Gulf.
The Jan’26 Brent Futures contract rallied this morning to $64.33 at 09:30 GMT before softening to $63.88/bbl ay 10:30 GMT (time of writing). In the news, India’s Reliance Industries is attempting to re-sell some Middle Eastern crude oil it recently purchased to replace Russian supplies affected by new US sanctions, according to trade sources. The firm, which has a long-term agreement with Rosneft for 500 kb/d, said it would comply with Western sanctions while maintaining relationships with other oil partners. While Reliance is estimated to have bought as much as 16 mb of spot crude in total, it has begun offering part of these volumes for re-sale, including 1 mb of Basrah Medium sold to a Greek refiner at a profit. In other news, ExxonMobil has signed an agreement with Energean and Helleniq Energy to explore for natural gas offshore western Greece. The project covers Block 2 and could see first gas production in the early 2030s if exploration and testing prove successful. The investment is expected to range between $50 – 100 million. ExxonMobil will hold a 60% stake and assume the role of operator should test drilling confirm viable gas reserves. A fire at the Naftan oil refinery in northern Belarus was extinguished without injuries, the emergency ministry said. The state Belta news agency reported it was caused by an incident involving diesel fuel at a technological unit. The Novopolotsk refinery processes over 200kb/d. Finally, the front-month Jan/Feb and 6-month Jan/Jul spreads are at $0.23/bbl and $0.33/bbl respectively.
In the week ending 4 Nov, the M1 Brent futures contract traded relatively rangebound between lows of $64.05/bbl (29 Oct) and highs of $65.30/bbl (4 Nov). Over the weekend, OPEC+ announced a modest output increase of 137kb, along with a pause in output increases for Q1’26, contributing to directionless prices this week. The LS gasoil swap crack also saw inconsistency, falling from $31.40/bbl on 28 Oct to $28.55/bbl on 29 Oct. Prices then met support here, recovering to the $31/bbl handle on 30 Oct before reversing and falling to $28.25/bbl on 04 Nov. RBOB prices saw consistent strength this week, rising from $12.80/bbl on 28 Oct to $14.55/bbl on 03 Nov.
This week money managers are anticipated to be risk off in Brent and RBOB, trimming longs in the former and adding to shorts in the latter. In contrast, these players are expected to be risk on in gasoil by adding to their longs.
Further detailed information on other categories and contracts can be found in the report.
Morning Macro 6th November:
We are officially in the longest US shutdown in history – consensus estimates are that shutdown would cost the economy around $15 billion each week; we have now entered the 6th week of the shutdown! Meanwhile, the US Department of Transportation announces mandatory flight cuts at major airports from Friday. The US may cut air traffic by 10% if no deal is reached to end the shutdown.
The US Supreme Court heard arguments this week on the legality of Trump’s sweeping tariffs, and many justices looked sceptical. Polymarket is now pricing only a 30% chance of the Court ruling in favour of Trump! If the tariffs are ruled out, this would cost the US around $30 billion per month in lost revenue!
But elsewhere the party is still going – the question is how long until the music stops? Globally the proportion of stock indexes at an all-time high is the highest since 1999! (Graph 1, Macrobond)
Now with lacking data in the US, everyone’s attention was on the ADP employment data, which showed that in October, private sector employment rose by 42k, marking the first monthly gain since July and surpassing expectations of 25k. Despite the positive data, US treasury yields didn’t even flinch, showing the little importance ADP data have in the market.
In the Eurozone, PMI data were positive for Spain (56) and Italy (53.1), recording their strongest expansions in over a year, driven by resilient services, new orders, and easing cost pressures. Germany (53.9) showed its fastest growth since mid-2023, supported by a rebound in services despite softer sentiment. Meanwhile France (47.7) remained mired in contraction, reflecting weak domestic demand. Overall, Europe’s private sector recovery is being powered by services strength amid lingering manufacturing weakness. Outside continental Europe, the UK (52.2) also regained momentum, but the expansion was driven by the services sector as the manufacturing side remains in contraction!
And the US showed steady growth on the PMI front too; the S&P Composite PMI rose to 54.6, driven by solid gains in both manufacturing and services activity. New business strengthened and employment edged higher, though confidence slipped to a six-month low. Inflation pressures continued to ease, with costs and prices rising at their slowest pace since April. Meanwhile, the ISM Services PMI climbed to 52.4, signalling the strongest expansion since February. Business activity and new orders rebounded sharply, though employment remained weak amid uncertainty linked to the shutdown.
Data today – Bank of England interest rate decision
ADNOC couldn’t wait to get their December OSPs out and sped ahead of the Saudis. Murban, as set as the average of IFAD Murban futures settlements, got a hefty cut to $65.79, down $4.43 from November. But the big mover was Upper Zakum, which dropped to a $1 discount against Murban for December loading, against the 30c discount set for November! See the full breakdown here.
This report reviews the key data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report
As crude structures weaken almost universally, the market feels as many of the big wigs are busy at ADIPEC. Even so, Brent recovered somewhat from its drop to $64 and seems to be happy in its post-sanctions range. In the meantime, the ADIPEC chatter is united in consensus. Hopefully it’s not just an echo chamber. It’s all about rebutting the ‘peak demand’ and ‘sub-100 mil b/d’ stories coming from the illustrious forecasting agencies, with the pack led by the IEA.
The Jan’26 Brent Futures contract rallied all morning to $64.91/bbl at 10:50 GMT (time of writing). In the news, Russia’s Black Sea port of Tuapse has suspended fuel exports and its local oil refinery stopped processing crude after Ukrainian drone strikes on 2 November damaged port infrastructure, according to industry sources and ship tracking data. Prior to the strike, Tuapse had planned to increase oil product exports in November, with three tankers docked at the time to load naphtha, diesel, and fuel oil. The facility has been targeted by Ukrainian drones multiple times and mainly supplies markets in China, Malaysia, Singapore, and Turkey. In other news, Western sanctions on Russia and Iran are leading to record amounts of oil being stored on ships, preventing a major oversupply in global markets, according to Gunvor Group CEO Torbjorn Tornqvist. Speaking at the ADIPEC energy conference in Abu Dhabi, he said the sanctions have disrupted trade flows but kept market conditions stable and reduced price volatility. Tornqvist noted the situation is unprecedented and warned that lifting sanctions could cause a glut, as the current storage on water is effectively smoothing out supply imbalances. ADNOC Drilling announced plans to acquire an 80% stake in MB Petroleum Services for an enterprise value of $204mn, expanding its operations across the Gulf region. CFO Youssef Salem noted that despite pressure on oil prices, drilling activity remains strong in the UAE, Oman, and Kuwait, with Saudi Arabia rebounding. The deal is set to close in the first half of 2026, pending regulatory approvals. Finally, the front-month Jan/Feb’26 and the 6-month Jan/Jul’26 spreads are at $0.40/bbl and $0.84/bbl, respectively.
Bitcoin is now down 20% since October 6th (Chart 1, TradingView) – yesterday’s selloff, saw it reaching the lowest point since June! The move was driven by an almost $1.3 billion liquidation in leveraged crypto positions.
In the stock market, global equities slumped yesterday and have continued this morning in Asia, as investors are unwinding positions in overheated AI and tech stocks. The Nasdaq fell sharply, with Nvidia, Palantir, and other chipmakers leading declines amid fears that valuations had run far ahead of earnings and both S&P and Nasdaq e-mine futures even traded lower post New York’s close (Chart 2, Bloomberg). Meanwhile, the Nikkei closed 2.5% lower on the day.
China’s private RatingDog General Services PMI declined to 52.6 in Oct 2025 though still above expectations. This is the softest reading in the services PMI since July, pressured by a slight decline in foreign sales and a decline in employment. Input cost inflation rose to a year high due to higher wages and increasing prices of raw materials, while selling prices fell slightly amid higher competition. Taking this with the reported decline in manufacturing PMI earlier this week, the RatingDog Composite PMI stood at 51.8.
But China’s 10-year yields dropped near its lowest level in three months at 1.73%. The PBoC announced it will resume its government bond purchases after a 9-month hiatus, net injecting 20 billion yuan ($2.8 billion) of liquidity via buying government bonds.
What Fed rate cut? When a central bank cuts short-term borrowing rates but interbank lending remains at the same levels, something already screams in the money markets. SOFR was seen yesterday trading at a 32bps above the IOER set by the Fed (Chart 3, Bloomberg) – banks are screaming for cash, hence no surprise the Fed is restarting the printers at a current balance sheet of $6.6 trillion! Last week, the spike was attributed to fiscal year ends etc, but when a $4-5 trillion market in daily flow experiences these widening rates, something is about to crack.
Gold prices remain pressured around the $4,000/oz marker, with the 10-day MA now presenting near-term resistance (Chart 5, TradingView). A wave of persistent ETF withdrawals has driven gold’s pullback. Short-term support now sits around $3,940/oz, with more significant support at the $3,900/oz handle.
2025 has now been the year with the most job cuts since COVID! YTD approximately 950k jobs have been cut (Chart 4, Challenger, Gray & Christmas) – although the US government has contributed to nearly a third of those cuts. “We’re not just in a low hire, low fire environment anymore. We’re firing.” – Dan North, Allianz Trade. Amazon, Target, Starbucks and Paramount have all announced recently that they are cutting jobs!
Meanwhile, German factory orders rose 1.1% m/m in September, marking the first increase in orders since April. This rise was driven by increases in the manufacture of electrical equipment (9.5%), aircraft, ships, trains, military vehicles (7.5%), and the automotive sector (3.2%). Orders for metal products fell 19% following large orders in August. Still, on a Q/Q basis, factory orders declined 3.3% in Q3 2025.
And French industrial production surprised to the upside, as it came at 0.8% higher m/m in September, driven by strong recoveries in transport equipment and electronics manufacturing.
Data releases today – Euro Area PMI, GB Services PMI, ADP Employment, US ISM PMI
If you push your rival away, don’t complain if he makes friend with your enemy. After the US spanked Russia with sanctions, President Xi rolled out the red carpet for Russia’s PM Mikhail Mishustin in Beijing, doubling down on the “no-limits” partnership. They lambasted “illegal” Western sanctions and are busy getting cosy. If you hear from the market that China will or has already stopped purchasing Russian crude, think again! There are rumours knocking around that big Chinese refiners are trimming purchases of Russian crude but this united front looks rather contradictory!
In this podcast, our Onyx Commodities Head of Trading Desks discuss the latest trends and developments in the oil, gas, power and carbon markets in which Onyx Commodities trades. This episode was recorded on Tuesday, 4 November 2025, at 11:00 a.m. London time. Please listen to the end of this podcast for important disclaimers.
This communication is for informational purposes only and based on the information available at the time the podcast was recorded. This is not an offer to buy or sell, nor a solicitation, and no recommendations are implied. It does not consider your financial circumstances or objectives and may not be suitable for you. Copyright 2025, Onyx Capital Group – all rights reserved.
This report aims to provide a position index for energy futures between -50 and 50, with 0 as the neutral position. The full methodology is at the back of the report. When the position index is at the extremes, above 40 or below -40, the market is overstretched relative to its average position in the previous 3-year rolling window. As such, it is ripe for mean reversion. Consequently, when the index is high, deleveraging will follow, having a negative impact on price, while when the index is low, we expect accumulation that will push the price higher.
In the week ending 31 October 2025 as traders were rolling their positions due to expiry, exchange traded futures volumes were largely down w/w across all instruments for the December tenor. In the following two futures contracts, volumes were up across all instruments, except Brent and WTI. Brent volumes in January and February tenors were down 4.79%
M1 Brent futures trended down from $63.55/bbl on 14 Oct but failed to reach $60/bbl on 17-20 Oct. The contract then inched up to $61.30/bbl at the time of writing on 21 Oct. Still, the 10-day moving average (orange line) remains critical **short-term resistance**, with longer-term resistance at $66/bbl, where the 50-day moving average meets the resistance level from 08 Oct. **Support** lies at the psychological $60/bbl level, as seen this week. Past this, $56.00/bbl proved a fairly firm resistance in the sideways trading over Jan’21.
