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China’s September trade data surprised sharply to the upside. Exports surged 8.3% y/y to $328.6bn, well above the 6.6% consensus, while imports rose 7.4% y/y, beating expectations for 1.8% and reversing August’s soft patch (Figure 1, TradingEconomics). The strength points to resilient global demand and aggressive front-loading ahead of possible tariff escalations. Still, beneath the headline, the geographic breakdown tells the real story: exports to the US collapsed 27% y/y, extending August’s 33% plunge, while shipments to the EU jumped 14.2% and those to Southeast Asia 15.6%, underscoring how China is rerouting supply chains around American tariffs.
The rare earths trade – the latest flashpoint in the US-China standoff – fell 31% m/m in September, nearly halving from June’s record. Beijing’s grip on these critical minerals has clearly rattled Washington; the Pentagon has reportedly moved to stockpile up to $1bn of key metals used in defence manufacturing. Meanwhile, China’s iron ore imports hit 116m tonnes in September, up 10.5% m/m, marking the strongest inflow in four months as steel demand stabilised.
Markets reacted violently on Friday as trade war rhetoric peaked. Beijing had launched an antitrust probe into Qualcomm, imposed new port fees on US-owned vessels, and restricted exports of certain battery components – And Trump reacted in usual fashion by threatening another 100% tariff.
10-year US Treasury yields sank, gold hit fresh records, and equities sold off hard. But weekend comments from both sides struck a de-escalatory tone – TACO time. Trump said on Truth Social “Highly respected President Xi just had a bad moment. He doesn’t want Depression for his country, and neither do I.” That tone was enough to lift S&P mini futures +1.3%, reversing part of Friday’s 2.7% slump, which was itself the steepest drop since April (Figure 2, Bloomberg).
Still, Asia opened bruised. With Japan closed, China set the tone: the CSI 300 slid another 1.7%, adding to Friday’s 1.9% fall – the worst two-day stretch since April’s trade war flare-up. The Hang Seng tumbled 3.3%, slicing through the 20- and 50-day EMAs and now flirting with the 100-day level.
Gold briefly dipped early in APAC hours on Trump’s softer rhetoric but snapped back above last week’s record to $4,060/oz. Silver surged 2.3% to $51.47, clearing its all-time high on tight liquidity in London and renewed safe-haven buying (Figure 3, Bloomberg). Bitcoin also clawed back ground, trading around $115,000, after tumbling below $105,000 post-tariff threat.
Data today: India inflation

Morning Macro Wednesday 10 October 2025
Precious metals are all trading down – except silver! With a steep move shown in Figure 1, beware of a correction coming soon once logistical tightness unwinds. ETFs added 621,684 troy ounces of silver to their holdings in the last trading session. The one-month silver lease rate jumped to an all-time high of 35%. That compares with close to or below zero in the years prior to 2025. That’s tightness in the physical, giving whiffs of the LME gold squeeze earlier this year
While silver breaks above $50, gold fell from its all-time high and is now well below the $4000 mark. Gold has now gained 52% YTD and the selloff was likely due to stops being triggered after exceeding the $4k mark and now has broken below its trend line (Figure 2, TradingView). Gold-backed ETFs trimmed 55,669 ounces from holdings in the latest session, about $221 million at spot prices, bringing net purchases this year to 14 million ounces, according to bbg. Total ETF holdings are up 17% in 2025 to 97.4 million ounces. Despite a 52% year-to-date surge to $3,976.86 an ounce, gold slipped 1.6% in the latest session.
Senate Republicans are weighing the cancellation of next week’s recess if the current stalemate continues, according to a person familiar with the discussions. Meanwhile, some House Republicans are questioning Speaker Mike Johnson’s decision to keep the chamber out of session during the impasse, highlighting growing frustration within the party. The BLS is working to get data out for the CPI report due to be released Wednesday 15 October. Polymarket is pricing a 92% chance the shutdown lasts to 15 October or later!
Japan’s cost pressures remain sticky! Producer prices rose 2.7% y/y in September, matching August’s pace but exceeding forecasts of 2.5%. Gains were broad-based, with stronger increases in non-ferrous metals (9.6%) and food and beverages (4.7%), offsetting weaker momentum in transport equipment and machinery. Prices rose 0.3% m/m, reversing August’s 0.2% fall and beating expectations. Overall, the data reinforce the view Japan’s upstream inflation is still running hotter than markets, and the BoJ can’t fully relax.
AMD continues to rally, up to record high yesterday, now up nearly 45% from open of October trading! More broadly, equities continue to hit record highs, with the S&P 500 setting new intraday ATH for 3 consecutive sessions.
Argentine markets rallied after the US stepped in with a $20 billion financial rescue package, including peso purchases and a currency swap aimed at stabilizing the economy ahead of midterm elections. The move marks a rare US intervention in foreign exchange markets and underscores Washington’s concern over Argentina’s recent currency slide.
Data today: Michigan Consumer sentiment

Palladium rose +7.85% yesterday, up +14.3% in 3 days, as S&P500, Nasdaq and Gold made new all-time highs. All too easy but watch out for the resurgent U.S. dollar, a clear double bottom with USDJPY +3.86% this week, and EURUSD down -1.1%. (Chart 1 U.S. dollar Index, Bloomberg). The real risk here is the Fed not cutting as aggressively as the market expects with 44bp cuts priced by year end.
FED: MAJORITY EMPHASIZED UPSIDE RISKS TO INFLATION OUTLOOK
*FED: A FEW OFFICIALS COULD HAVE SUPPORTED NO RATE CUT IN SEPT.
*FED: MOST SAID LIKELY APPROPRIATE TO EASE POLICY MORE THIS YR

Strange things going on in private credit with a 14.5% drop in private equity stocks (Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, Carlyle) in just 3 weeks, while the S&P 500 dances higher every day.
Copper rises +10.1% in 12 days, following the precious metals rally or a sign a rising demand from China? Probably the former but worth considering.
CHINA TO TIGHTEN EXPORTS OF RARE EARTH AND RELATED TECH……. watch out: REMX, MP, NB, USAR, UAMY, TMQ, TMC
AMD jumps another 11.4% on the open AI deal, up +43% on the week.
USDJPY has broken form the 10-year interest rate differential, the BOJ has let the currency go to save the bond market (Chart 2, USDJPY vs 10-year interest rate differential, Bloomberg)
Israel’s Channel 14 reported the Israel-Hamas ceasefire will come into effect today at 12:00 noon (10:00BST/05:00EDT), according to Al Arabiya.
*INDONESIA’S 10-YEAR BOND YIELD FALLS TO LOWEST SINCE DEC. 2021
BMW shares slumped 9% on Tuesday, after the German automaker said volumes in China were below expectations and that the U.S.-European Union tariff agreement has yet to materialize.
Power grid stocks consolidating after their big run earlier this year, look for a new break out higher: VEG, NRG, CEG, VST.
Nvidia, a perfect breakout, retest of support and then a break higher. I think it’s over-priced, but the market doesn’t care what I think! It’s going higher, trade the price action. (Chart 3, Bloomberg)

We have just witnessed the largest Retail Investor buying EVER. Retail has bought over +$100B of US stocks in the last month, the largest 1M buying on record. (Chart 4, Morgan Stanley QDS, Exchange Data Feeds, Marlin Capital)

The private credit cesspool…. First Brands Lehman moment….*FIRST BRANDS CREDITOR SAYS UP TO $2.3 BILLION ‘SIMPLY VANISHED’, SEEKS INVESTIGATION

Breaking down Russell 2000 Index:
57% of index is currently profitable 4
1% of index is currently unprofitable
2% of index doesn’t currently have earnings data available
Since 4/8/25 closing low:
Profitable part of Russell 2000: +22%
Unprofitable part of Russell 2000: +53% (Source, @LizAnnSonders, Bloomberg)

Ken Griffin Calls Flight to Gold ‘Really Concerning’ “We’re seeing substantial asset inflation away from the dollar as people are looking for ways to effectively de-dollarize, or de-risk their portfolios vis-a-vis US sovereign risk”
No key data today – US government shutdown!