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Morning Macro Wednesday 10 October 2025
Precious metals are all trading down – except silver! With a steep move shown in Figure 1, beware of a correction coming soon once logistical tightness unwinds. ETFs added 621,684 troy ounces of silver to their holdings in the last trading session. The one-month silver lease rate jumped to an all-time high of 35%. That compares with close to or below zero in the years prior to 2025. That’s tightness in the physical, giving whiffs of the LME gold squeeze earlier this year
While silver breaks above $50, gold fell from its all-time high and is now well below the $4000 mark. Gold has now gained 52% YTD and the selloff was likely due to stops being triggered after exceeding the $4k mark and now has broken below its trend line (Figure 2, TradingView). Gold-backed ETFs trimmed 55,669 ounces from holdings in the latest session, about $221 million at spot prices, bringing net purchases this year to 14 million ounces, according to bbg. Total ETF holdings are up 17% in 2025 to 97.4 million ounces. Despite a 52% year-to-date surge to $3,976.86 an ounce, gold slipped 1.6% in the latest session.
Senate Republicans are weighing the cancellation of next week’s recess if the current stalemate continues, according to a person familiar with the discussions. Meanwhile, some House Republicans are questioning Speaker Mike Johnson’s decision to keep the chamber out of session during the impasse, highlighting growing frustration within the party. The BLS is working to get data out for the CPI report due to be released Wednesday 15 October. Polymarket is pricing a 92% chance the shutdown lasts to 15 October or later!
Japan’s cost pressures remain sticky! Producer prices rose 2.7% y/y in September, matching August’s pace but exceeding forecasts of 2.5%. Gains were broad-based, with stronger increases in non-ferrous metals (9.6%) and food and beverages (4.7%), offsetting weaker momentum in transport equipment and machinery. Prices rose 0.3% m/m, reversing August’s 0.2% fall and beating expectations. Overall, the data reinforce the view Japan’s upstream inflation is still running hotter than markets, and the BoJ can’t fully relax.
AMD continues to rally, up to record high yesterday, now up nearly 45% from open of October trading! More broadly, equities continue to hit record highs, with the S&P 500 setting new intraday ATH for 3 consecutive sessions.
Argentine markets rallied after the US stepped in with a $20 billion financial rescue package, including peso purchases and a currency swap aimed at stabilizing the economy ahead of midterm elections. The move marks a rare US intervention in foreign exchange markets and underscores Washington’s concern over Argentina’s recent currency slide.
Data today: Michigan Consumer sentiment

Palladium rose +7.85% yesterday, up +14.3% in 3 days, as S&P500, Nasdaq and Gold made new all-time highs. All too easy but watch out for the resurgent U.S. dollar, a clear double bottom with USDJPY +3.86% this week, and EURUSD down -1.1%. (Chart 1 U.S. dollar Index, Bloomberg). The real risk here is the Fed not cutting as aggressively as the market expects with 44bp cuts priced by year end.
FED: MAJORITY EMPHASIZED UPSIDE RISKS TO INFLATION OUTLOOK
*FED: A FEW OFFICIALS COULD HAVE SUPPORTED NO RATE CUT IN SEPT.
*FED: MOST SAID LIKELY APPROPRIATE TO EASE POLICY MORE THIS YR

Strange things going on in private credit with a 14.5% drop in private equity stocks (Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, Carlyle) in just 3 weeks, while the S&P 500 dances higher every day.
Copper rises +10.1% in 12 days, following the precious metals rally or a sign a rising demand from China? Probably the former but worth considering.
CHINA TO TIGHTEN EXPORTS OF RARE EARTH AND RELATED TECH……. watch out: REMX, MP, NB, USAR, UAMY, TMQ, TMC
AMD jumps another 11.4% on the open AI deal, up +43% on the week.
USDJPY has broken form the 10-year interest rate differential, the BOJ has let the currency go to save the bond market (Chart 2, USDJPY vs 10-year interest rate differential, Bloomberg)
Israel’s Channel 14 reported the Israel-Hamas ceasefire will come into effect today at 12:00 noon (10:00BST/05:00EDT), according to Al Arabiya.
*INDONESIA’S 10-YEAR BOND YIELD FALLS TO LOWEST SINCE DEC. 2021
BMW shares slumped 9% on Tuesday, after the German automaker said volumes in China were below expectations and that the U.S.-European Union tariff agreement has yet to materialize.
Power grid stocks consolidating after their big run earlier this year, look for a new break out higher: VEG, NRG, CEG, VST.
Nvidia, a perfect breakout, retest of support and then a break higher. I think it’s over-priced, but the market doesn’t care what I think! It’s going higher, trade the price action. (Chart 3, Bloomberg)

We have just witnessed the largest Retail Investor buying EVER. Retail has bought over +$100B of US stocks in the last month, the largest 1M buying on record. (Chart 4, Morgan Stanley QDS, Exchange Data Feeds, Marlin Capital)

The private credit cesspool…. First Brands Lehman moment….*FIRST BRANDS CREDITOR SAYS UP TO $2.3 BILLION ‘SIMPLY VANISHED’, SEEKS INVESTIGATION

Breaking down Russell 2000 Index:
57% of index is currently profitable 4
1% of index is currently unprofitable
2% of index doesn’t currently have earnings data available
Since 4/8/25 closing low:
Profitable part of Russell 2000: +22%
Unprofitable part of Russell 2000: +53% (Source, @LizAnnSonders, Bloomberg)

Ken Griffin Calls Flight to Gold ‘Really Concerning’ “We’re seeing substantial asset inflation away from the dollar as people are looking for ways to effectively de-dollarize, or de-risk their portfolios vis-a-vis US sovereign risk”
No key data today – US government shutdown!

Gold breaks above $4,000 (now $4,030) though with an RSI at 91 it’s extremely overbought, when the correction comes it will be aggressive, but palladium has now joined the precious metal party, rising +8.9% in 3 days (Chart 1, Bloomberg).
The problem for 2026 isn’t recession, stagflation or debasement, it is electricity generation…The next gen data centres will be so powerful as to need their own power grid; indeed, authorities may even require that they do not draw on the national power grid for fear of crowding out home users. There is already a view that supply will be in deficit for 2026. The OpenAI deals announced require huge levels of both capital and electricity to fulfil. These may be unobtainable but nevertheless, electricity is the variable that will become more valuable. In the meantime, watch power grid ETFs because it is likely there may be a correction to the amazing surge in the chipmaker and AI sector. (LinkedIn Neale Muston)
And yet more weak data from German this morning with Industrial production down 4.3% MoM (est -1.0%,) (Chart 2, Bloomberg). The German industrial production chart back to 1992 highlights the ECB’s problems, the OIS pricing just 10bp cuts from the ECB over the next 12 months seems too low, especially with the FED OIS pricing 102bp of cuts. EURUSD seems rich at these levels.
AMD SOARS 38% ON OPENAI DEAL, ADDING $101 BILLION IN VALUE
AMD IS NOW UP 160% OVER THE LAST 6 MONTHS
Meanwhile Japan has clearly decided to sacrifice the currency to save the bond market with the Yen -3.3% since the election result while the 30-year bond yield returning to unchanged.
The S&P 500 has never been more concentrated in just three stocks than it is today with Nvidia, Microsoft, and Apple representing over 21% of the index.
Oracle shares tumbled after a report that the software maker’s profit margin in its cloud computing business is lower than many on Wall Street have been estimating.
Carlyle Group is releasing its own estimates of US economic data. The investment manager is stepping into the economic data void left by the US government shutdown with a grim read on the U.S. labour market. They estimate that just 17,000 jobs were created, among the weakest results since the US economy emerged from the 2020 recession.
Consumers see higher inflation in the year ahead, with signs that lower and middle-income households are feeling most of the burden of rising price pressures, according to a monthly survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Expectations for consumer price increases one year ahead jumped to 3.4% in September from 3.2% in the prior month.
The RBNZ cut by another 0.5% to 2.5%, citing “prolonged spare capacity”. Guidance was dovish with the OIS pricing another 25bp cut at the Nov 26th meeting. RBNZ has now cut by more than other major central banks, as it overdid the tightening.