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Morning Macro 1st October
Nvidia joins the gold party, both new al-time highs while the U.S. government shut down looks today. Also yield fell a couple of basis points as U.S. consumer confidence fell to 5-month lows.
750,000 gov’t employees / day expected to be furloughed in event of U.S. Government shutdown today.
German inflation rose faster than expected in Sep. Headline CPI climbed to 2.4% YoY from 2.2% in Aug, driven partly by smaller drop in energy prices. More worrying, core inflation also ticked up from 2.7% to 2.8%
U.S. September Consumer Confidence Index down to 94.2 vs. 96 est. & 97.8 prior … expectations down to 73.4 vs. 74.7 prior; present situation down to 125.4 vs. 132.4 prior (Chart 1, @LizAnnSonders)
August JOLTS job openings 7.227M vs. 7.2M est. & 7.208M prior (rev up from 7.181M) … quits rate down to 1.9%; layoffs rate unchanged at 1.1% (Chart 2, @LizAnnSonders)
Nvidia breaks out to new all-time highs from a sideways consolidation. Fast money will chase the break (Chart 3, TradingView)

Data today – ADP payrolls, U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI, EZ & UK mfg PMI

Morning Macro 30th September
Gold, yes another new all-time high, only the 39th of the year, but the trend in both gold and silver are now accelerating with Silver prices are now up +63% YTD, gold prices up +46% YTD. However I’m currently at the CMT Global Investment Conference in Dubai, and the long’s are getting increasingly nervous with this price action, trailing stop protect profits. Risk management!
UBS ESTIMATES 93% PROBABILITY OF U.S. RECESSION
Polymarket: U.S. Government now projected to shut down this week. 75% chance…..
…. BLS PLANS NOT TO RELEASE ECONOMIC DATA DURING GOVT SHUTDOWN
*US SEPT. DALLAS FED MANUFACTURING INDEX -8.7; EST. -1.0

Manufacturing PMI 49.8 [Est.49.7, Prev. 49.4]
Non-Manufacturing PMI 50.0[Est. 50.2, Prev. 50.3]
Composite PMI 50.6[Prev.50.5]
Iron ore continues it’s recent sell off with China’s steel Industry PMI declined by 2.1pps to 47.7% in September. The New Order Index dropped by 4.5 pts to 45.2%. The Production Subindex down by 2.3 pts to 45.7%.
The US Dollar is depreciating so quickly that Apollo says it will spark more inflation. According to the Fed’s model itself, every -10% drop in the US Dollar results in a 30 basis point boost to inflation. This year alone, the US Dollar Index is down over -10%, its worst year since 1973.
RAY DALIO: “WE’RE HEADING INTO VERY, VERY DARK TIMES”
UBS ESTIMATES 93% PROBABILITY OF RECESSION
“Oracle’s stock jumped by 25% after being promised $60 billion a year from OpenAI, an amount of money OpenAI doesn’t earn yet, to provide cloud computing facilities that Oracle hasn’t built yet, and which will require 4.5 GW of power (the equivalent of 2.25 Hoover Dams or four nuclear plants), as well as increased borrowing by Oracle whose debt to equity ratio is already 500% compared to 50% for Amazon, 30% for Microsoft and even less at Meta and Google. In other words, the tech capital cycle may be about to change.” – JPM’s Michael Cembalest (Chart 1, Bloomberg, JPMAM)

There are now 109 Chinese car brands. Even if just 10% of them survive at the end of the day, legacy carmakers in Europe and Asia are toasted. Buckle up. (Chart 2, @MichaelAArouet)

Your most urgent task as a trader isn’t to predict, but to control yourself.
Data today – Tue: Conf. Board Consumer confidence, JOLTS