Crude

The Jul’25 Brent futures contract saw prices rally all afternoon to $65.95/bbl at 17:35 BST before falling off to $64.42/bbl at 18:00 BST (time of writing). In the news, Indonesia is questioning a number Singapore-based trading firms as part of a $12B corruption probe into oil imports by state energy firm Pertamina between 2018 and 2023. Several Pertamina executives have been arrested, and authorities may question the firms in Singapore after failed summonses. Elliott Investment Management, now holding 5% of BP, is pressing for a quick replacement for outgoing Chair Helge Lund to drive a strategic revamp. The activist fund favours candidates with fossil fuel or mining backgrounds to restore investor confidence. BP may also need a new CEO, with former BP exec and current Rolls-Royce CEO Tufan Erginbilgic seen as a strong option. In other news, Brazil’s Finance Minister Fernando Haddad said oil exploration near the mouth of the Amazon River should proceed, but warned it must not delay the country’s shift to clean energy. The region is seen as Brazil’s most promising for new oil discoveries, yet drilling is controversial due to its location in the Amazon basin .Haddad emphasized the need to reduce reliance on oil through investments in alternative energy, reaffirming Brazil’s leadership in the global energy transition. According to Reuters, a potential US-Iran nuclear deal could lift sanctions on Tehran’s oil exports, flooding global markets and threatening China’s independent “teapot” refineries. These small refineries rely heavily on discounted and sanctioned Iranian crude. Finally, the front-month Jul/Aug and 6-month Jul/Jan’26 spreads are at $0.72/bbl and $2.02/bbl respectively.

The Jul’25 Brent futures contract initially climbed to $66.30/bbl at 13:16 BST but retreated throughout the afternoon to $64.97/bbl at17:30 BST (time of writing). In the news, the EIA reported that US crude and fuel inventories unexpectedly rose last week. Crude stocks increased by 1.3mb to 443.2 million, contrary to forecast. Crude imports hit a six-week high at 2.58mb/d, while refinery runs and utilization slightly increased. Gasoline stocks grew by 816kb, despite expectations for a decline, and gasoline demand fell to 8.6 mb/d. Distillate stocks also rose by 580kb, just missing expectations. In other news, Continental Resources estimates Turkey’s Diyarbakır Basin holds 6.1 billion barrels of shale oil, equal to 17 years of current imports. A joint venture with Turkey’s TPAO and TransAtlantic Petroleum aims to develop the region, which may also hold up to 20 TCF of gas. South Africa plans to wait for global oil prices to reach around $100/bbl before selling more of its strategic crude reserves, said Godfrey Moagi, CEO of the state-owned South African National Petroleum Company. South Africa aims to generate about 4B rand ($223 million) from reserve sales by March 2026 but will hold off unless prices rise. The nation’s strategic reserves stand at roughly 7.7 mb, with some sales already made to local firms Sasol and TotalEnergies’ local unit. Finally the front-month Jul/Aug and 6-month Jul/Jan’26 spreads are at $0.53/bbl and $1.46/bbl respectively.

The Jul’25 Brent futures contract saw prices rally to $65.65/bbl at 14:21 BST before falling off to $54.94/bbl at 14:51 BST. Prices then bounced back to $65.53/bbl at 17:30 BST (time of writing). In the news, Kazakhstan’s oil output rose 2% in May to 1.86 mb/d. The increase follows April’s 3% drop but still exceeds the country’s OPEC+ quota of 1.486 mb/d. Kazakhstan blames its repeated overproduction on the difficulty of curbing output from Western-led projects like Tengiz. The energy ministry insists it remains committed to OPEC+ and will offset excess output by 2026 but prioritizes national interests. In other news, Ukraine is urging the G7 to lower the price cap on Russian seaborne oil from $60/bbl to $30/bbl to tighten economic pressure on Moscow, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha said. This comes as the EU and UK announced new sanctions targeting Russia’s “shadow fleet” and financial networks helping it evade existing restrictions. While the EU is considering a revised cap of $50/bbl, Ukraine wants a more aggressive cut. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) warned on Tuesday that an above-average Atlantic hurricane season could disrupt oil production and refining along the Gulf Coast. With around 17 named storms forecast, weather-related shutdowns are increasingly likely. More than 1mb/d of refining capacity, about 5% of US petroleum consumption, could be preemptively halted in the path of major storms. AccuWeather expects 3 to 6 storms to directly hit the US this season, which runs June through November. Finaly, at the time of writing, the front-month Jul/Aug and 6-month Jul/Jan’26 spreads are at $0.62/bbl and $1.67/bbl respectively.

The Jul’25 Brent futures contract saw prices rally all afternoon to $65.95/bbl at 17:35 BST before falling off to $64.42/bbl at 18:00 BST (time of writing). In the news, Indonesia is questioning a number Singapore-based trading firms as part of a $12B corruption probe into oil imports by state energy firm Pertamina between 2018 and 2023. Several Pertamina executives have been arrested, and authorities may question the firms in Singapore after failed summonses. Elliott Investment Management, now holding 5% of BP, is pressing for a quick replacement for outgoing Chair Helge Lund to drive a strategic revamp. The activist fund favours candidates with fossil fuel or mining backgrounds to restore investor confidence. BP may also need a new CEO, with former BP exec and current Rolls-Royce CEO Tufan Erginbilgic seen as a strong option. In other news, Brazil’s Finance Minister Fernando Haddad said oil exploration near the mouth of the Amazon River should proceed, but warned it must not delay the country’s shift to clean energy. The region is seen as Brazil’s most promising for new oil discoveries, yet drilling is controversial due to its location in the Amazon basin .Haddad emphasized the need to reduce reliance on oil through investments in alternative energy, reaffirming Brazil’s leadership in the global energy transition. According to Reuters, a potential US-Iran nuclear deal could lift sanctions on Tehran’s oil exports, flooding global markets and threatening China’s independent “teapot” refineries. These small refineries rely heavily on discounted and sanctioned Iranian crude. Finally, the front-month Jul/Aug and 6-month Jul/Jan’26 spreads are at $0.72/bbl and $2.02/bbl respectively.

The Jul’25 Brent futures contract saw prices rangebound between $64.60/bbl and $65.02/bbl in the early afternoon. Prices then rallied to $65.47/bbl at 17:45 BST (time of writing). In the news, the first round of talks between Russia and Ukraine conclude. President Zelenskiy dismissed Russia’s terms and coordinated with US President Trump and European leaders for a stronger response. Russia said talks could continue, but President Putin declined a direct meeting with Zelenskiy. In other news, Nigerian oil firm Renaissance Energy has halted production into the Trans Niger Pipeline following an operational incident on May 6 that caused an oil spill in the B-Dere community in Ogoniland. The pipeline has a capacity of around 450kb/d and has now seen two incidents in as many months. China has become the top buyer of Canadian oil shipped through the newly expanded Trans Mountain pipeline. Since full operations began in June 2024, Canada has exported an average of 207kb/d to China via the pipeline, up from just 7kb/d in the previous decade. In contrast, US imports from the pipeline averaged 173kb/d. The US is intensifying efforts to block Iran’s oil exports to China by cracking down on financial and logistical loopholes. According to Bloomberg, US Treasury officials visited Hong Kong in April to warn local banks against facilitating transactions linked to Iranian oil sales, especially those involving front companies and non-dollar currencies. Finally, the front month Jul/Aug spread is at $0.61/bbl and the 6-month spread Jul/Jan’26 is at $1.57/bbl.

The Jul’25 Brent futures contract climbed from $65.80/bbl at circa 12:20 BST to $66.50/bbl at 14:55 BST, where it met resistance. Price action attempted to breach this level thrice this afternoon but failed to breach past it, softening to $65.90/bbl at 16:35 BST. Finally, at the time of writing (17:45 BST), the futures contract stands at $66.28/bbl. US crude oil inventories increased by 3.45mb w/w in the week ending 9 May to 441.8mb (15.19mb lower y/y). The EIA also reported a muted 0.19mb build in US gasoline inventories to 225.7mb (-2.27mb y/y) and a 3.16mb decline in distillate fuel oil inventories to 103.6mb (-12.81mb y/y). In other news, a senior executive at Equinor reportedly told Reuters that Europe may need to keep offering attractive price levels to secure an additional 30 billion cubic metres (bcm) of LNG to restock its inventories. Elsewhere, Saudi Aramco has signed 34 preliminary agreements worth as much as $90 billion with major US companies in Saudi Arabia’s attempt to diversify its economy and attract foreign investment. The NOC commented that the agreements comprise LNG, fuels, chemicals, emission-reduction technologies and artifical intelligence. Finally, at the time of writing, the Jul/Aug’25 and Jul/Jan’26 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.49/bbl and $1.48/bbl, respectively.