Crude

Nov’25 Brent futures has consolidated after the Friday morning rally which saw prices rise by over $2 up to $68/bbl before coming off to $67.50/bbl at 17:00 BST (time of writing). Despite a relatively large intraday trading range, from a technical perspective, Brent continues to trade within a narrowing symmetrical triangle, which suggests that a breakout in either direction is imminent. Brent is on track for a higher weekly close despite the OPEC news and the IEA coming out to forecast a larger surplus, as traders focused on geopolitical risks. This includes Ukraine’s drone attack on Russia’s Primorsk port, a key Baltic Sea loading terminal for its crude and product flows. This is in addition to Washington pushing for secondary sanctions on India and China. Valero has taken its 65kb/d FCCU and 12kb/d alkylation unit offline at the 180kb/d Memphis refinery for planned maintenance through 1 Nov, alongside work on the flare gas recovery unit and a hydrotreater catalyst change. According to Vortexa, Americas crude export growth is moving south as US shipments slip while rising light-sweet supply from Guyana and Brazil drives export gains and supports Suezmax tonne-mile demand. Finally, the front (Nov/Dec) and 6-month (Nov/May) Brent futures spreads are at $0.45/bbl and $1.29/bbl respectively.

Nov’25 Brent Futures softened from $66.57/bbl at 15.00 BST to $66.40/bbl at 17.55 BST (time of writing). Crude oil losses in Nigeria dropped to 9.6 kb/d in July 2025, their lowest in 16 years, according to the NUPRC. The fall marks a major turnaround from 2021, when theft and metering losses peaked at 102.9 kb/d, the highest in over two decades. The IEA projected global supply growth ahead of expectations as OPEC+ ramps up output from October, while OPEC’s own report held non-OPEC supply and demand steady, leaving the market caught between bearish stock builds and fears of disruption from conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine. Saudi Arabia’s crude exports to China are expected to jump to 1.65 mb/d in October from 1.43 mb/d in September. Meanwhile, US CPI rose at the fastest pace in seven months on housing and food costs, but higher jobless claims reinforced expectations of a Fed rate cut next week. The latest CPI showed prices up 2.9% year-on-year, the highest since January, while core CPI held steady at 3.1% after July’s rise. The ECB left rates unchanged but gave little guidance, leaving traders split on whether another cut will follow as Eurozone inflation trends below target. China’s Zhongman Petroleum and Natural Gas Group (ZPEC) has launched its first Iraqi subsidiary in Basra, more than a year after securing development rights for the East Baghdad and Middle Euphrates oil and gas fields. The company plans to build an oil equipment and pipe facility while offering engineering, drilling, and maintenance services as part of its broader Iraq investment strategy. Finally, the front-month Nov/Dec and the 6-month Nov/May spreads are at $0.35/bbl and $0.96/bbl, respectively.

The Nov’25 Brent Futures contract initially traded rangebound between $67.17/bbl and $66.77/bbl before jumping up to $67.45/bbl at 16:09 BST. Prices continued rallying to $67.69/bbl at17:30 BST (time of writing). In the news, the EIA reported that US oil inventories climbed sharply: crude stocks rose by 3.9 mb, gasoline by 1.5 mb, and distillates by 4.7 mb. In other news, the EU is unlikely to follow US President Trump’s push to impose major tariffs on India and China over their Russian oil imports, despite recent discussions in Washington. EU sources say the bloc prefers sanctions over tariffs, which require lengthy legal investigations. Brussels is also finalising a trade deal with India, making such measures politically risky. The EU is expected to continue targeting specific entities in upcoming sanctions, with the next package potentially arriving Friday. The White House is reviewing an EPA proposal that would require large oil refineries to cover about half of the 1.1 Bn gallons of biofuel blending obligations waived for small refineries. This partial reallocation aims to stabilise the renewable fuel credit (RINs) market and ease compliance costs for refiners. However, it’s likely to frustrate biofuel producers and farm-state lawmakers, who want 100% reallocation. Russia has increased its September crude oil export plan from western ports to 2.1 mb/d due to reduced domestic refinery demand following a wave of drone attacks. Exports from Primorsk, Ust-Luga, and Novorossiisk will rise from 1.9 mb/d initially planned and from 2.0 mb/d in August. The rise in Urals crude shipments aims to satisfy continued strong demand from India, which despite a dip in August, remains a key buyer of Russian oil. Finally, the front-month Nov/Dec and the 6-month Nov/May spreads are at $0.34/bbl and $1.14/bbl respectively.

The Nov’25 Brent Futures contract jumped up to $67.10/bbl at 14:04 BST. Prices then traded between $67.33/bbl and $66.82/bbl. At 16:30 BST prices fell to $66.72/bbl and continued falling to $66.55 at 17:45 BST (time of writing).

The Nov’25 Brent futures contract climbed to a high of $67.04/bbl at 12:50 BST this afternoon but softened to $65.85/bbl by 15:00 BST, where it marked a floor and sits at $66.05/bbl at the time of writing (17:25 BST).

The Nov’25 Brent Futures contract dropped in just over a minute in a huge $0.65/bbl move down to $65.54/bbl at 13:53 BST. Prices continued falling throughout the afternoon and at 17:20 BST (time of writing) were trading at $65.16/bbl. The drop in price comes as Saudi Arabia pushes OPEC+ to bring forward a planned production increase, potentially restoring 1.66 mb/d of withheld output earlier than the late 2026 schedule. The proposal will be discussed in an OPEC+ ministerial video call this weekend and marks a shift toward regaining market share after months of defending prices. In the news, India will continue purchasing Russian oil as long as it remains cost-effective, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said. Despite pressure from Washington over its energy ties with Moscow, India maintains that its purchases help balance global markets. Sitharaman emphasized India’s sovereign right to choose suppliers based on price and logistics, noting oil and refined fuel make up a quarter of the country’s imports. US officials have urged India to resume trade talks and align with the dollar, warning of long-term consequences if it continues its current path. In other news, Russian President Putin confirmed that the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline to China is moving forward, calling it a “mutually beneficial project” with pricing to be based on a market formula similar to Europe’s. Russia and China signed a binding memorandum on the pipeline during Putin’s recent visit to Beijing, though final pricing has yet to be set. Gazprom aims to begin deliveries by 2030. Finally, the front-month Nov/Dec spread is at $0.37/bbl and the 6-month Nov/may spread is at $0.83/bbl.