Crude

The Sep’25 Brent futures contact continued rallying in the afternoon to $70.41/bbl at 17:15 BST (time of writing). In the news, Russia plans to fully compensate for overproducing oil beyond its OPEC+ quota in August and September, in line with its existing plan. The country aims to address the cumulative 691kb/d excess production since April. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak also mentioned that the government is still considering a complete gasoline export ban, dependent on market conditions in the coming days. Currently, there are restrictions on a small portion of gasoline exports, while oil companies have licenses to sell fuel abroad. In other news, A lightning strike caused a fire at a storage tank at Citgo Petroleum’s 460 kb/d Lake Charles refinery in Louisiana on Thursday. The fire was quickly put out, and no injuries were reported. Citgo confirmed that all other parts of the refinery are operating normally. The heads of Russia’s Gazprom and China’s CNPC discussed future Russian gas supplies to China during talks in Beijing, according to Gazprom. Since the start of the Ukraine conflict in 2022, Russia has shifted its oil exports to India and China. Russia began exporting gas to China via the Power of Siberia pipeline in late 2019, aiming to reach its annual capacity of 38 B cubic meters this year. Russian President Vladimir Putin is set to visit China in September for WWII victory celebrations, following Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to Moscow in May. Finally, the front-month Sep/Oct and 6-month Sep/Mar’26 spreads are at $1.21/bbl and $3.25/bbl respectively.

The Sep’25 Brent futures contract fell from $69.80/bbl at 12:25 BST to $68.60/bbl at 16:55 BST, increasing slightly to $68.95/bbl at 17:10 BST (time of writing). Reuters reported that the European Commission plans to propose a floating Russian oil price cap this week as part of its 18th sanctions package, aiming to overcome opposition from some EU states. The current G7 cap of $60/bbl, set in December 2022 to limit Russia’s war financing, has become ineffective due to falling global oil prices, prompting the EU to draft a mechanism starting around $45/bbl that adjusts with market prices. OPEC’s 2025 World Oil Outlook projects global oil demand rising by over 19 mb/d by 2050, reaching nearly 123 mb/d, and requiring up to 19.5 mb/d of new refining capacity. India, Other Asia, the Middle East, and Africa will drive growth, adding 22.4 mb/d combined, with India alone contributing 8.2 mb/d, while Chinese growth slows and developed economies see declining demand. Emerging markets, policy shifts, and stronger economic prospects will support medium- and long-term demand. The UAE reaffirmed its 5 mb/d production capacity target by 2027 but signalled it could increase to 6 mb/d if markets demand, potentially making it the world’s fourth-largest producer. Energy Minister Suhail al-Mazrouei stressed this is not an official target, and the ministry confirmed the current goal remains unchanged. OPEC+ granted the UAE a higher quota in 2024. It is set to rise by another 300,000 bpd through September 2025, as part of a 2.5 mb/d group-wide output increase, while 3.65 mb/d of cuts remain until end-2026 amid ongoing quota disputes within the group. US pipeline safety enforcement actions fell to a record low at the start of Donald Trump’s new term, as his administration prioritises deregulation. The Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration opened just 40 cases between January 20 and June, the lowest for any presidential term in two decades and 68% lower than during Trump’s first months in office in 2017. Finally, the front-month Sep/Oct and the 6-month Sep/Mar’26 spreads are at $1.13/bbl and $3.04/bbl.

The Sep’25 Brent futures contract fell to $69.65/bbl at 14:32 BST. Prices have since rallied up to $70.43/bbl at 16:52 BST and softened slightly to $70.42/bbl at 17:25 BST (time of writing). In the news, US crude oil stockpiles unexpectedly rose by 7.1 mb to 426 mb for the week ending 4 July, according to the EIA. This increase was larger than analysts’ expectations for a 2.1 mb draw. However, gasoline stocks fell by 2.7 mb as gasoline demand surged by 6% to 9.2 mb/d ahead of the July 4 weekend. Refinery crude runs dropped by 99 kb/d, while refinery utilization rates decreased slightly to 94.7%. In other news, Nigeria’s Dangote refinery is set to build storage tanks in Namibia to store at least 1.6 mb of gasoline and diesel, aiming to supply refined fuel to southern Africa. This move aligns with Dangote’s strategy to dominate fuel supply across the continent and reshape regional energy trade. The 650 kb/d refinery has been increasing production and exploring new markets. The storage tanks in Walvis Bay will supply fuel to Botswana, Namibia, Zambia, Zimbabwe, and possibly the southern Democratic Republic of Congo. Turkish energy companies are set to explore oil and gas offshore Pakistan following agreements with local firms, as announced by Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan during his visit to Pakistan. This collaboration is part of broader discussions between Turkey and Pakistan on potential cooperation in energy exploration, mining, and rare earth elements. Finally, the front-month Sep/Oct and the 6-month Sep/Mar’26 spreads are at $1.25/bbl and $3.56/bbl.

Sep’25 Brent futures contract continued to rally this afternoon to $70.25/bbl at 17:40 BST (time of writing). US Gulf Coast fuel oil imports dropped to a record low of 213 kb/d in June. Reuters reported that refiners chose cheaper heavy sour crude, like Mexico’s Maya, over high-priced high-sulphur fuel oil. This shift reduced imports and stocks, with Gulf Coast fuel oil inventories falling to 10.63 mb, their lowest since March 1996. According to its SEC filing, ExxonMobil warned that lower crude, NGL, and gas prices may cut Q2 earnings by $1.1–1.9 Bn. Despite the outlook, ExxonMobil shares rose 2% in Tuesday morning trading. Officials have set a provisional two-week deadline to find a buyer for Prax Lindsey refinery, which supplies 10% of the UK’s fuel and remains operational under a temporary crude supply deal with Glencore, amid insolvency proceedings and an investigation into its owners over £250 million in tax debts. Restructuring specialists FTI Consulting have begun canvassing interest in the 400-employee site and may also market other Prax Group assets. JODI reported that Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production increased by 48 kb/d in April, while crude exports jumped by 412 kb/d. Finally, the front-month Sep/Oct and the 6-month Sep/Mar spreads are at $1.17/bbl and $3.30/bbl, respectively.

The Sep’25 Brent futures contract continued rallying all afternoon to $69.54/bbl at 17:37 BST (time of writing). In the news, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney expressed strong confidence that a proposed oil pipeline to the Pacific coast will likely be included in Canada’s list of national interest projects. Carney emphasised that the private sector will drive the pipeline proposal, with the federal government aiming to fast-track such projects. Alberta Premier Danielle Smith indicated that a private company could soon propose the pipeline, with a target of transporting 1 mb/d. The Trans Mountain expansion remains the only active pipeline for exporting Alberta’s crude to the West Coast. In other news, ExxonMobil, leading a consortium with QatarEnergy, has discovered a natural gas reservoir off Cyprus’ coast. Drilling at the Pegasus-1 well revealed a gas-bearing layer of 350 meters at a depth of 1.9 km. Further evaluation will be conducted in the coming months to assess the discovery. This marks the second gas find in Block 10, following the Glaucus-1 discovery in 2019. While Cyprus has found gas in several areas, it has yet to commercialise the resources. Ecuador’s private OCP pipeline, which transports heavy crude, resumed operations on today after a precautionary suspension on 1 July due to heavy rains. The restart followed the completion of a bypass built to address erosion along the Loco River in the Amazon region, the company reported. Finally, the front-month Sep/Oct and the 6-month Sep/Mar spreads are at $1.16/bbl and $3.23/bbl respectively.

The Sep’25 Brent crude futures saw a quiet Friday afternoon, trading between $68 and $68.50/bbl. Prices are on track for a weekly gain after seeing sideways action following last week’s rout. The UK’s insolvent Lindsey oil refinery faces shutdown within 3 weeks with the current 1.8mb of crude it has in storage. According to Woodmac analyst Emma Howsham, crude throughputs are likely scaled back with yesterday’s FCC shutdown, operating in the less profitable hydroskimming configuration. Nonetheless, the Official Receiver (officer of the Insolvency Service of the UK) reached a deal with Glencore overnight for the trade house to continue to supply crude oil to the refinery. In other news, Trump and Zelenskyy discussed boosting Ukraine’s air defences and joint military cooperation amid escalating Russian strikes, following Trump’s call with Putin and a major drone attack on Kyiv. Finally, the front (Sep/Oct) and 6-month (Sep/Mar) Brent futures spreads are at $1.07/bbl and $2.77/bbl respectively.