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In this publication, we leverage Onyx’s proprietary Commitment of Traders data in order to identify changes in swap Open Interest and Positioning against Onyx with a view, in conjunction with long/short entry price levels and volatility analysis to identify potential continuation or reversal trends. In this edition, we take a look at the Aug’25 NWE naphtha crack
The Sep Brent Futures contract has seen a choppy afternoon session, trading gradually down from $69.07/bbl at 13:00 BST to $68.64/bbl where it prints at the time of writing (17:25 BST). In headlines, the Arabian Gulf Oil Company (AGOCO), a subsidiary of Libya’s National Oil Corporation, has completed repairs on the Hamada-Zawiya crude oil pipeline after a leak was detected in late May, temporarily halting crude flows. The pipeline supplies Libya’s largest refinery in Zawiya, which processes up to 120kb/d and is linked to the 300kb/d Sharara oilfield. Meanwhile, India has voiced concerns over a proposed US bill by Senator Lindsey Graham that would impose a 500% tariff on imports from countries buying Russian oil. Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar said the issue has been raised with US lawmakers, noting that President Trump appears to support the bill. Finally, at the time of writing, the front (Sep/Oct) and 6-month (Sep/Mar’26) Brent spreads were at $1.16/bbl and $3.05/bbl.
With the first half of 2025 firmly in the rearview mirror, we wonder what the second half of the year holds for us in the oil market. President Trump’s return injected a Big, (Beautiful?) dose of volatility into the oil markets, and he was all anyone could ever talk about this year.
See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
The Sep’25 Brent futures contract fell off to 67.24/bbl at 15:32 BST. Prices then rallied to $68.35/bbl at 16:56 BST before softening to $68.25/bbl at 17:30 BST (time of writing). In the news, India is considering building three new sites to expand its Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), which currently has a capacity of about 39 mb equivalent to eight days of the country’s oil consumption. The proposed new sites include locations in Mangalore, Bikaner (Rajasthan), and Bina (Madhya Pradesh). The move aims to increase India’s reserves to 90 days’ worth of oil consumption (current reserves are 75 days worth including private) , allowing the country to meet International Energy Agency (IEA) requirements. In other news, Kazakhstan’s energy ministry announced the cancellation of plans to build a gas processing plant at the Karachaganak field, which was initially set to be developed with foreign shareholders. The field, operated by the Karachaganak Petroleum Operating consortium, had previously agreed to build a gas processing plant, set to start operations in 2028. The ministry did not explain the reason behind halting the project, though some industry sources suggested it was linked to ongoing legal disputes with the foreign companies. A group led by Vitol has submitted a bid of over $10B in the final phase of the court-organized auction for shares in PDV Holding, the parent company of Citgo Petroleum. This auction aims to compensate creditors seeking to recover nearly $19B after Venezuela expropriated assets and defaulted on debt. Vitol had previously participated in earlier bidding rounds, but new bidders have emerged with improved offers. Finally, the front-month Sep/Oct and 6-month Sep/Mar’26 spreads are at $1.05/bbl and $2.78/bbl respectively.
The Dubai market has largely returned to normality as geopolitical risk unwinds. As per usual, the Strait of Hormuz didn’t close this time, although there was noticeably more market anxiety. The forward curve is being heavily pressured, with Brent/Dubai boxes aggressively selling off. On the first day of July pricing, the Jul’25 Brent/Dubai fell below -$1/bbl, while the Jul/Aug’25 box came off to -$0.95/bbl, which marks an extreme contango structure. Aug’25 is following suit and was the next contract to fall below flat. Another notable drop was Q4’25/Q1’26, which fell from $0.05 to -$0.15/bbl. The market has largely disregarded the prospect of OPEC+ supply hikes, interpreting it as existing overproduction being formalised. The combination of the market buying Cal26 and selling front boxes would have put participants comfortably in the money. Here, trade houses and majors were the main players. Previously, we noted that refinery sell side hedging flows in Cal26 had distorted Brent/Dubai. Now that these flows have subsided, this distortion has left a vacuum conducive to a mean reversion. There is greater conviction in the downside for Brent/Dubai boxes as these flows are more speculative, whereas refinery flows are more price-agnostic.
The September Brent Futures contract has seen a mixed afternoon, peaking at $67.50/bbl at noon, before being sold off following the US open to a low of $66.70/bbl, and rebounding up to $67.08/bbl at the time of writing (17:30 BST). In headlines, Kazakhstan’s crude oil production surged by 7.5% in June to 1.88 mb/d, matching its record high from March and significantly exceeding its OPEC+ quota of 1.5 mb/d, reflecting a continued trend of noncompliance, according to Reuters. Meanwhile, Norway’s Equinor and its partners announced a $1.3 billion (13 billion NOK) investment in Phase 3 of the Johan Sverdrup oilfield, adding two subsea templates and new pipelines to boost recoverable volumes by 40–50 mboe, with production expected by late 2027. In Asia, Indonesia has introduced new regulations to attract oil drilling technology providers to help revive idle wells and raise national oil output from under 6 kb/d to 1 mb/d by 2029–2030, according to Deputy Energy Minister Yuliot Tanjung. At the time of writing, the front (Sep/Oct) and 6-month (Sep/Mar’26) Brent spreads are at $0.90/bbl and $2.22/bbl, respectively.
The Dated Brent physical differential weakened from above $1.10/bbl on 23 Jun to $0.38/bbl on 30 Jun, with Eni and Shell both offering Forties. Both players continued to cut their offers for Forties over the past week. While Total ultimately bought Forties from Eni, Shell failed to procure buyers despite offering the crude grade at +$0.15/bbl on 30 Jun compared to +$1.15/bbl on 23 Jun. Moreover, Unipec and Glencore offered WTI Midland cargoes late last week and on 30 Jun, with Glencore also cutting its offer from Dated + $2.25/bbl for 13-17 July on 26 Jun to + $1.45/bbl for 12-16 July.
The Sep’25 contract dropped to $67.49/bbl at 14:10 BST before rallying up to $67.78/bbl at 14:48 BST. Prices are at $67.64/bbl at 17:55 BST (time of writing). In the news, Kazakhstan is set to exceed its 2025 oil production forecast by about 2%, with output now expected to reach 97.7mt (2 mb/d), up from 96.2 mt. This increase comes from higher output at major oilfields like Tengiz, Kashagan, and Karachaganak. Kazakhstan has consistently exceeded its OPEC+ quotas. KazMunayGaz raised its projections for Tengiz by 900 kt, Kashagan by 200 kt, and Karachaganak by 360kt. In other news, the US Supreme Court has agreed to hear Enbridge’s bid to move Michigan’s lawsuit, which seeks to stop the operation of its Line 5 pipeline beneath the Straits of Mackinac, to federal court. The dispute centres on the ageing Line 5 pipeline, which carries 540kb/d of crude and refined products from Wisconsin to Ontario, with a four-mile section running underwater through the Straits of Mackinac. Environmentalists are concerned about the risk of oil leaks. Analysts slightly raised their oil price forecasts after tensions in the Middle East, but rising OPEC+ supply and a cautious demand outlook continue to weigh on prices, according to a Reuters poll. The poll expects Brent crude to average $67.86/bbl in 2025, up from $66.98/bbl last month. While the Iran-Israel conflict caused price fluctuations, analysts view any price spikes as temporary unless the situation escalates. Rising OPEC+ output and comfortable inventories should keep prices in check. Finally, the front-month Aug/Sep and the 6-month Aug/Feb’26 spreads are at $0.88/bbl and $2.95/bbl, respectively.
Brent crude futures prices have steadied after last week’s sell-off, with market sentiment more balanced. Sep’25 averaged $67/bbl and traded within a $2 range from $66 to $68/bbl over the week. Prices fell sharply following Iran’s retaliation, which involved striking
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This afternoon, the front-month Brent futures contract was initially rangebound between $68 and $68.40/bbl but softened further to $67.25/bbl at 16:40 BST. Prices found more support at this level and have since risen to $67.65/bbl at the time of writing (17:45 BST).
In this publication, we leverage Onyx’s proprietary Commitment of Traders data in order to identify changes in swap Open Interest and Positioning against Onyx with a view, in conjunction with long/short entry price levels and volatility analysis to identify potential continuation or reversal trends. In this edition, we take a look at the Jul’25 Brent/Dubai
In this publication, we leverage Onyx’s proprietary Commitment of Traders data in order to identify changes in swap Open Interest and Positioning against Onyx with a view, in conjunction with long/short entry price levels and volatility analysis to identify potential continuation or reversal trends.
In this edition, we take a look at the Aug’25 EBOB crack.
