Crude

The Apr’25 Brent futures contract weakened this afternoon, declining from $76.35/bbl at 1200 GMT down to $75.35/bbl at 1720 GMT (time of writing). Crude oil prices saw bearish sentiment this afternoon, with EIA stats released today at 1530 GMT for the week to 07 Feb showing a larger-than-expected 4.07mb build in US crude oil inventories. In the news today, OPEC has released its February oil market report, forecasting global oil demand in 2025 to grow by 1.4mb/d y/y, largely unchanged from January’s assessment. OPEC projects OECD oil demand to grow by 0.1mb/d y/y and by 1.3mb/d In the non-OECD region, mostly driven by Chinese demand. Total world oil demand is anticipated to average 106.6mb/d in 2026. In other news, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak said the country complied with its OPEC+ output quota in January and February so far, quoted by Russian news agency Interfax. Meanwhile, Indian refiners are reconfiguring insurers and vessel owners to continue receiving cheaper Russian oil without violating US sanctions on Russian oil exports, anonymous industry executives told Bloomberg. Finally, CNPC and Kazakhstan’s KazTransGas have signed an agreement increasing the contracted gas volume for the 2024-25 supply year by one-third, according to Xinhua news agency. CNPC also finalized a crude oil spot purchase agreement with Tengizchevroil, though specific contract volume figures were not disclosed, as per S&P Global. At the time of writing, the Apr/May’25 and Apr/Oct’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.32/bbl and $2.47/bbl, respectively.

Apr’25 Brent futures failed to maintain strength above $77.00/bbl this afternoon and softened to $76.46/bbl at 15:22 GMT before recovering to around $76.94/bbl at 17:30 GMT (time of writing). Russian oil production fell below its OPEC+ quota in January, alleviating fears of oversupply. Output dropped to 8.962 mb/d, coming in at 16 kb/d under the approved level set by the production agreement. Petro-Victory Energy, in a 50/50 partnership with Azevedo & Travassos Petroleo, acquired 13 oil fields spanning 38,301 acres in Brazil’s Potiguar Basin. The deal adds 125mb of oil in place, boosting production capacity and proven reserves by 50%. The US Dollar stays flat for a second day, with the DXY holding above 108.00. Fed Chair Jerome Powell signalled no rush to adjust rates, while the Greenback remains fairly unfazed by Trump’s 15% steel and aluminium tariff, set for March 12. Chinese retaliatory tariffs targeting US coal and LNG came into play today. At the time of writing, the Apr/May’25 and Apr/Oct’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.41/bbl and $2.86/bbl, respectively.

The Apr’25 Brent futures contract ultimately saw marginal strength this afternoon, increasing from $75.60/bbl at 1200 GMT up to $76.05/bbl at 1715 GMT, before tapering to $75.85/bbl at 1745 GMT (time of writing). Bullish sentiment has pushed crude oil prices higher to start the week despite US tariff concerns, with traders seeing good buying opportunity after last week’s decline. In the news today, India’s Oil Minister Hardeep Puri said the country plans to launch new oil and gas licensing rounds as early as this week, with a meeting between US President Trump and Indian Prime Minister Modi scheduled later this week. In other news, Russia’s crude output fell to 8.962mb/d in January, 16kb/d below its target under the OPEC+ supply agreement, according to Energy Ministry figures seen by Bloomberg. Russia has pledged to submit an updated schedule for oil production cuts to compensate for past overproduction, though none has been published. Finally, Moldova’s pro-Russian breakaway Transdniestria region is expected to begin receiving natural gas supplies under a loan provided by Moscow, as per Reuters. This followed widespread power cuts after Russian natural gas shipments to the region were halted on 1 Jan. At the time of writing, the Apr/May’25 and Apr/Oct’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.46/bbl and $2.75/bbl, respectively.

The Apr’25 Brent futures flat price was lower on Friday afternoon after testing the $75/bbl resistance level, coming off to $74.35/bbl by 17:00 GMT (time of writing). Crude is on track for a third consecutive weekly decline, with players taking profit and selling into any rallies amid heightened volatility on the back of Trump’s actions. In the news, Venezuela’s state oil company, PDVSA, has resumed regular light crude imports due to declining domestic production, as stalled trade with Iran and a gas supply shortage have worsened blending bottlenecks, despite increased exports and slight overall output growth. The European Union is discussing a deal to partially lift sanctions on Syria’s oil industry and banks, including removing bans on crude imports and energy financing, as part of efforts to support Syria’s transition under new President Ahmed Al-Sharaa, while some EU nations push for conditions limiting Russian influence in the country. Singapore-listed oil company Interra Resources is seeking legal advice to assess whether its subsidiaries violated foreign laws by supplying oil to military-controlled Myanmar, following allegations from activist group Justice for Myanmar, while also reviewing the adequacy of its risk controls amid Western sanctions on the nation. Chevron is accelerating the expansion of Kazakhstan’s Tengiz oilfield, reaching 900kb/d in early February – well ahead of schedule – with full capacity of 1mb/d expected by June, complicating Kazakhstan’s efforts to stay within its OPEC+ production quota. Finally, the front (Apr/May) and 6-month (Apr/Oct) Brent futures spreads are at $0.40/bbl and $2.46/bbl respectively.

The Apr’25 Brent futures flat price came off below the $75/bbl level on Thursday afternoon, trading at $74.42/bbl at 17:30 GMT (time of writing). As the US unveiled fresh sanctions on Iran, the first move under the Trump administration, prices spiked from $74.35/bbl to highs of $75.38/bbl before quickly retreating to $74.62/bbl. In other news, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer signaled that he will not block the Rosebank oil and gas project, despite a court ruling against it, reaffirming his stance that existing licences will not be revoked while maintaining that oil and gas will remain part of the UK’s energy mix for decades. Following fresh US sanctions imposed on 10 January, Russia’s flagship Urals crude oil has dropped below the $60/bbl price cap for the first time since December. A new poll shows 82% of Canadians support imposing export taxes on oil if Donald Trump implements tariffs on Canadian goods, despite opposition from Alberta and Saskatchewan leaders, highlighting growing public backing for using Canada’s oil exports as leverage in potential trade conflicts with the U.S. Oil and gas traders are likely to seek waivers from Beijing over China’s retaliatory tariffs against the U.S., where 4 tankers, carrying 6mb of WTI and ANS crude, and 2 LNG vessels are currently en route to China. Finally, the front (Apr/May) and 6-month (Apr/Oct) Brent futures spreads are at $0.47/bbl and $2.65/bbl respectively.

The Apr’25 Brent futures contract found support at just shy of $76.00/bbl at around 0300 GMT and strengthened through the morning to $76.55/bbl at 10:35 GMT (time of writing). President Trump issued executive orders on 1 Feb, which will take effect on 4 Feb, including a 25% on most goods from Mexico and Canada, a 10% tariff on energy imports from Canada, and a 10% tariff on Chinese imports. Goldman Sachs sees minimal price impact, keeping its forecast unchanged after raising it last week, with its Brent forecast for 2025 raised to $78/bbl from $76/bbl. Iraq approved a budget amendment to restart Kurdish oil exports via Turkey, doubling payments to the Kurdish region to $16/bbl. PM Al-Sudani urged swift action after a year-long export halt over disputes. Nigeria aims to boost oil and condensate output to 2.7 mb/d by 2027 from 1.67 mb/d in December. This would allow Nigeria to remain within its OPEC+ crude quota as it will likely be a strong addition to condensate production. At the time of writing, the Apr/May’25 and Apr/Oct’25 Brent futures spreads stood at $0.87/bbl and $3.75/bbl, respectively.