Crude

The prompt April Brent Futures contract has seen a volatile afternoon, initially trading down from $75.09/bbl at noon to a low of $74.17 at 14:20 GMT before rallying to $76.65/bbl at 15:35 GMT and retracing some of its gains to print at $76.25/bbl at the time of writing (17:20 GMT). In headlines, Trump is expected to sign an executive order intensifying pressure on Iran, within which Iranian crude exports will be targeted. A presidential memorandum will direct the US Treasury to impose “maximum economic pressure” through sanctions and enforcement on violators, aiming to reduce Iran’s oil exports to zero. Iranian oil revenue totalled $53 billion in 2023 and $54 billion in 2022 according to US EIA data, with 2024 output at its highest since 2018, per OPEC. In other news, Equinor suspended production at the 755 kb/d Johan Sverdrup oilfield in the North Sea due to a power outage. Repair work is underway, and a restart plan is being developed, according to a company spokesperson. At the time of writing, the front (Apr/May) and 6-month (Apr/Oct) Brent Futures spreads are at $0.66/bbl and $3.30/bbl respectively.

The Apr’25 Brent futures contract witnessed a weaker afternoon, softening from $77.20/bbl at 14:10 GMT to $75.15/bbl at 15:25 GMT. The contract found support at this level and climbed to $75.75/bbl at 17:20 GMT (the time of writing).

The Apr’25 Brent futures contract found support at just shy of $76.00/bbl at around 0300 GMT and strengthened through the morning to $76.55/bbl at 10:35 GMT (time of writing). President Trump issued executive orders on 1 Feb, which will take effect on 4 Feb, including a 25% on most goods from Mexico and Canada, a 10% tariff on energy imports from Canada, and a 10% tariff on Chinese imports. Goldman Sachs sees minimal price impact, keeping its forecast unchanged after raising it last week, with its Brent forecast for 2025 raised to $78/bbl from $76/bbl. Iraq approved a budget amendment to restart Kurdish oil exports via Turkey, doubling payments to the Kurdish region to $16/bbl. PM Al-Sudani urged swift action after a year-long export halt over disputes. Nigeria aims to boost oil and condensate output to 2.7 mb/d by 2027 from 1.67 mb/d in December. This would allow Nigeria to remain within its OPEC+ crude quota as it will likely be a strong addition to condensate production. At the time of writing, the Apr/May’25 and Apr/Oct’25 Brent futures spreads stood at $0.87/bbl and $3.75/bbl, respectively.

The Apr’25 Brent futures contract fell to around $75.25/bbl at 1500 GMT before strengthening to $75.95/bbl at 1700 GMT (time of writing). The PCE price index rose 0.3% monthly and 2.6% annually, keeping inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, while core PCE increased 0.16% in December and 2.8% year-over-year. The 6-month annualized rate fell to 2.3%, the lowest in 2024. Libya’s NOC, under new acting chairman Massoud Suleman, aims to increase oil production and enhance transparency while considering office closures to streamline operations. Suleman also plans to work with authorities to end crude-for-fuel swaps and secure a stable budget for refined petroleum products. Exxon Mobil exceeded earnings expectations in Q4 despite lower oil prices, driven by strong production growth in Guyana and the Permian Basin. The company is increasing capital spending to over $30 billion annually, aiming to lower breakeven costs and sustain profitability while expanding LNG and crude production projects globally. At the time of writing, the Apr/May’25 and Apr/Oct’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.77/bbl and $3.43/bbl, respectively.

The Apr’25 Brent futures contract climbed from $75.40/bbl at 1400 GMT to see resistance around $76.50/bbl at 1540 GMT and is supported at just shy of $76.00/bbl at 1738 GMT (time of writing). Petrobras boosted reserves to 11.4 billion barrels in 2023, adding 1.3 billion barrels while producing 900 million. It plans to invest $111 billion from 2025-2029, with $77 billion for oil and gas exploration. Ukraine launched multiple drone strikes on Russian energy facilities, including a key oil refinery supplying Putin’s war effort. Oil flows at Russia’s Ust-Luga port were reportedly halted, supporting Kyiv’s claims of a successful attack on a pumping station. Shell expects an 85% reserve replacement ratio (RRR) for last year, indicating it replaced 85% of the oil and gas it produced. Over three years, its RRR averaged 108%. The company projects 2024 reserves at 9.6 billion barrels of oil equivalent. A judge ruled the Rosebank and Jackdaw oil and gas fields in the North Sea unlawful, siding with Greenpeace and Uplift over missing emissions assessments. At the time of writing, the Apr/May’25 and Apr/Oct’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.79/bbl and $3.38/bbl, respectively.

The Apr’25 Brent futures contract climbed to $76.40/bbl at 16:00 GMT, softened to $76.05/bbl at 16:20 GMT before climbing again to $76.40/bbl at 16:40 GMT. The crude futures contract again met resistance at this level and declined to $75.65/bbl at 17:40 GMT (time of writing).

The Apr’25 Brent futures contract climbed to $77.15/bbl at 14:05 GMT but softened subsequently, briefly weakening below $76/bbl at 16:50 GMT.