Crude

The Dec’25 Brent futures contract fell this afternoon, reaching $61.73/bbl at 13:45 BST before falling to $60.37/bbl at 15:00 BST. Prices found support at this level, recovering to $61.35/bbl at 17:00 BST (time of writing). In the news, Reuters has reported that Chevron and Shell have cut oil and gas exports from a Kazakh field after a Ukrainian drone strike damaged a supporting gas plant in the Orenburg region of Russia. This development makes this the first Ukrainian strike to impact Western oil operations. In other news, LSEG data shows that Russia’s Russneft has shipped its first oil cargo to the new Kulevi oil refinery in Georgia (initial capacity 24kb/d), as part of its attempts to diversity exports amidst Western sanctions. In Spain, gas grid operator Enagas has reported a 37% increase in gas demand between January and September, following a severe blackout in late April. According to Enagas, Spain’s total gas demand has been up 6.6% y/y. In Hungary, MOL oil and gas company reported a fire at its Danube refinery (capacity 165kb/d); no injuries occurred and disrupted crude units have already been gradually restarted. The company is unsure of the extent of damages and is set to begin assessing over the next 24 hours. Finally, at time of writing, the front-month Dec/Jan’26 and 6-month Dec/Jun’26 spreads are at $0.24/bbl and $0.03/bbl, respectively.

The Dec’25 Brent futures contract battled with the $60/bbl level this afternoon, dipping to $60.11/bbl at 14:00 BST before recovering slightly to $60.63/bbl at 17:30 BST (time of writing). In the news, Reuters have reported a second Ukrainian drone attack on Russia’s Novokuibyshevsk oil refinery in the last month. The refinery has suspended its 139kb/d CDU along with another primary unit following the attacks on Sunday. In the Russian Orenburg region, according to Reuters, another Ukrainian drone attack struck the Orenburg oil and gas plant, forcing neighbouring Kazakhstan to reduce its Karachaganak oil and gas refinery (capacity 263kb/d) production by 25-30%; Orenburg itself has suspended its intake of Kazakh gas. Elsewhere, Kurdistan crude oil exports have reached 205kb/d since restarting exports in late September. According to local media, fragile deals between the Iraqi government, the KRG, and foreign firms could jeopardise new exports; the federal government in Baghdad has allegedly violated its agreement by failing to pay international oil companies their owned financial dues to cover operational costs. In Brazil, Petrobras has announced its authorisation to conduct exploratory drilling in the Foz do Amazonas region; drilling is expected to begin immediately and last five months. At this time, no oil production has begun. BP has additionally announced its own discovery in the Orange basin of Namibia, encountering reservoirs with favourable petrophysical properties and no verified water contact. Finally, at time of writing, the front-month Dec/Jan’26 and 6-month Dec/Jun’26 spreads are at $0.11 and -$0.30/bbl, respectively.

The Dec’25 Brent futures contract has risen this afternoon, from $60.68/bbl at 12:00 BST to $61.17/bbl at 17:00 BST. In the news, a morning fire at BP’s Whiting refinery in Indiana (capacity 440kb/d) has been extinguished, resulting in multiple units taken offline. BP has yet to further detail the extent of the refinery’s operational status. In other news, Reuters has reported that Western pressure on Asian purchasing of Russian energy could limit India’s oil imports in December. The report also casted doubt on the likeliness of Japan ceasing Sakhalin LNG shipments, given the country’s dependency on the Russian source. In India, industry sources told Reuters that they have yet to see cuts to Russian crude oil imports and have not asked refiners to cut imports of Russian crude yet. This sits in contrast to US President Trump’s earlier comments this week, where he claimed that Indian Prime Minister Modi had agreed to half Russian crude imports. In China, state-owned oil company CNPC has continued to produce and export oil from a recently expanded Nigerian oil field, despite continuing disputes with local authorities. Military leadership expelled Chinese expatriates earlier this year, insisting that CNPC hire more local workers and address pay gaps. Despite this, according to Reuters sources, total export sales from the field have reached $2bn and capacity has increased to 900kb/d. Finally, at time of writing, the front-month Dec/Jan’26 and 6-month Dec/Jun’26 spreads are at $0.15/bbl and -$0.19/bbl, respectively.

The Dec’25 Brent futures contract fell this afternoon, from $62.50/bbl at 12:30 BST to $61.39/bbl at 16:45 BST. Prices met support here, recovering to $62.02/bbl at 17:00 BST (time of writing). In the news, Bloomberg has reported that Dangote Refinery is slashing its crude purchases as it faces operational challenges. The refinery is set to import 300kb/d in October, half as much as the 600kb/d purchases seen in July. In other news, new EIA data has revealed a 6.7% drop in refinery utilisation and a 3.52mb w/w build in crude oil inventories, reaching 423.8mb. Elsewhere, Bloomberg reports that Canadian oil exports to China have surged and is on track for a record month. In October, nearly 5mb have been exported from Vancouver; this rate, according to Bloomberg, is a record for the first 2 weeks of any month. More than 70% of oil-carrying vessels leaving British Colombian ports have been destined for China, as the Chinese pivot away from US crude oil. In the EU, the bloc’s energy committee has supported proposals for a quicker phase-out of Russian gas, banning imports of natural gas from the beginning of 2026. The proposal now faces Parliament for approval and amendments. In India, officials have stated that India remains ‘unaware’ of US President Trump’s claim that Prime Minister Modi pledged to cease Russian oil purchases. Finally, at time of writing, the front-month Dec/Jan’26 and 6-month Dec/Jun’26 spreads are at $0.27/bbl and $0.16/bbl, respectively.

The Dec’25 Brent futures contract initially rose to $63.01/bbl at 14:00 BST before dropping to $61.83/bbl at 17:30 BST (time of writing). In the news, Reuters have reported that Russia’s Novorossiisk port has reached maximum export capacity, reaching 800kb/d last month. According to Reuters estimates, this level is the highest rate in at least 5 years. Elsewhere, Ukrainian economy minister Oleksii Sobolev has stated that Ukraine is considering importing American LNG, amidst struggling Russian gas infrastructure. No further details have been made public, though the energy ministry has said last week that it wants to increase Ukrainian gas imports by 30%. In the UK, foreign secretary Yvette Cooper announced sanctions against Russia’s Rosneft and Lukoil. The new sanctions targets Russia’s shadow fleet and bans UK businesses or individuals from engaging in trade with the sanctioned firms. In other news, the EU has extended an invite to Serbia to join its communal gas-buying initiative, as it looks to reduce Serbian dependence on Russian fossil fuels. In Norway, the government’s Labour party has proposed to raise spending from its $2 trillion oil fund in 2026. Finally, at the time of writing, the front-month Dec/Jan’26 and 6-month Dec/Jun’26 spreads are at $0.27/bbl and $0.19/bbl, respectively.

The Dec’25 Brent futures contract rose this afternoon, from $61.53/bbl at 12:00 BST to $62.40/bbl before easing to $62.00/bbl at 16:30 BST (time of writing). In the news, the IEA has reported a decrease in Russia’s crude oil and fuel export revenues for September, falling to $13.35bn from $13.58bn in August. Exports of refined products have dropped to their lowest level in a decade, excluding the COVID-19 period. Elsewhere, Reuters have reported that Egypt is planning to drill 480 exploratory wells with 101 of which scheduled for 2026. The development is backed by various investments totalling about $5.7bn over the course of 5 years. In India, the country’s foreign ministry has announced that a Mongolian oil refinery, backed by Indian investment, is expected to begin operations in 2028. Its expected capacity is 30kb/d and will be Mongolia’s first oil refinery. In other news, TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanné stated that non-OPEC crude production is likely to decline when prices fall to $60/bbl or lower, citing producer warnings about eroding shale output. Finally, at time of writing, the front-month Dec/Jan’26 and 6-month Dec/Jun’26 spreads are at $0.31/bbl and $0.24/bbl, respectively.