Crude

Jun’25 Brent Futures dropped to almost $62.00/bbl around 15.08 BST before recovering to around $63.60/at 16.40 BST and is around $62.75/bbl at 17.35 BST (time of writing). The EIA cut the non-OPEC 2025 supply growth estimate to 1.26mb/d (was 1.43 mb/d), and cut the 2026 estimate to 1.08mpbd (was at 1.27mb/d). Brazil’s government is planning an additional auction of offshore oil stakes this year. In a “worst-case” scenario, the auction, expected by September, will target uncontracted parts of the Tupi, Mero, and Atapu pre-salt fields to raise up to $3.4 billion. The move is seen as a strategic move to offset revenue shortfalls. TotalEnergies EP Namibia, along with partners Namcor and Qatar Energy, plans to produce 160,000 barrels of oil per day from the proposed offshore Venus Field, with storage for two million barrels and a gas separation capacity of 550,000 MMscfd. The US Dollar Index is down 1.7% in the day and USD/CAD is near its lowest level since November. There was a drop of around 5.4mb in Japanese crude inventories last week. The front-month Jun/Jul and 6-month Jun/Dec spreads are at $0.54/bbl and $1.50/bbl, respectively.

The prompt Jun’25 Brent Futures saw prices rally up to $61.03/bbl at 14:40 BST before falling down to $59.61 around 16:10 BST. Prices have since crawled back up to $60.59/bbl at 17:40 and have jumped up to $64.90 at 18:54 BST (time of writing). Analysts warn US oil companies may slash capital spending and share buybacks to preserve cash. Many producers now face breakeven prices above $62/bbl, factoring in dividends and debt service, with companies like Exxon and Chevron needing up to $95/bbl to fully cover payouts. Analysts expect cautious earnings guidance later this month if prices stay low. US  crude stockpiles rose by 2.6 mb last week, as imports increased and exports fell to their lowest since January, according to the EIA. Exports dropped by 637 kb/d to 3.2 mb/d, while imports rose to nearly 3 mb/d. Reuters report that analysts voiced concerns that falling demand and rising trade tensions, especially with China’s new 84% tariffs on US. goods, may signal broader economic weakness. In other news, Saudi Arabia has discovered 14 new oil and gas fields across the Eastern Province and the Rub’ al Khali, boosting its upstream reserves. Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman called it a strategic milestone that reinforces the Kingdom’s energy future. The news follows Saudi Aramco’s sharp price cut for May Arab Light crude to Asia. Finally, the front month Jun/July and 6-month Jun/Dec spreads are at  $0.48/bbl and $1.18/bbl respectively.

The Jun’25 Brent futures contract saw a less volatile with prices moving up to $65.10/bbl at 14:17 BST. Around 16:15, prices fell down to $63.90/bbl and despite gaining some support reaching $64.66/bbl it has fallen to $63.80/bbl at 17:40 BST (time of writing). Canadian oil and gas CEOs are urging caution as oil prices hover near four-year lows and recession fears mount. InPlay Oil CEO Doug Bartole said his firm is avoiding rash decisions for now but may scale back spending if prices drop to $50/bbl. Birchcliff Energy CEO Chris Carlsen noted that many Canadian firms can manage at current $60/bbl oil prices. In other news, oil projects in Alaska’s North Slope and Arctic regions drove a 7% jump in local jobs last year, outpacing the state average. ConocoPhillips’ Willow and Santos’ Pikka projects are key, with peak output expected at 180 kb/d and most workers hired locally. The Trump Administration aims to expand exploration in Alaska’s petroleum reserve and Arctic refuge. Lastly, US president Trump is set to sign executive orders aimed at boosting US coal production. The orders will seek to extend the life of coal plants, lift a federal coal leasing moratorium, and possibly label metallurgical coal as a “critical mineral.” Finally, the front month Jun/July and 6-month Jun/Dec spreads are at $0.50/bbl and $1.48/bbl respectively.

Front-month Brent futures stabilised this afternoon following the huge pressure it was under in the morning. The contract saw support just above $64.00/bbl at around 15:50 BST and was more supported at $65.40/bbl at 17:20 BST (time of writing). China announced retaliatory tariffs on all US products in response to similar tariffs imposed by President Trump this week. China announced 34% retaliatory tariffs on all American imports starting 10 Apr, in the first Chinese response to Trump’s tariffs. This response was received poorly by Mr Trump, who said they “played it wrong”. While the US tariffs excluded energy products, China’s retaliatory measures targeted all American goods and included export restrictions on certain rare earth elements. JPMorgan expects oil prices to remain low through 2025, citing weak supply-demand fundamentals that could keep prices down without government action. Morgan Stanley is holding its Brent forecast steady at $67.50/bbl for 2H’25. Iraq’s Oil Ministry rejected the Association of the Petroleum Industry of Kurdistan’s (APIKUR) claims of stalled talks, calling them misleading. It reaffirmed its commitment to the federal budget law and urged the immediate resumption of oil exports via the Iraq-Turkey Pipeline. At the time of writing, the Jun/Jul’25 and Jun/Dec’25 Brent futures spreads stood at $0.60/bbl and $1.89/bbl, respectively.

Front-month Brent futures stabilised this afternoon following the huge pressure it was under in the morning. The contract saw support just above $64.00/bbl at around 15:50 BST and was more supported at $65.40/bbl at 17:20 BST (time of writing). China announced retaliatory tariffs on all US products in response to similar tariffs imposed by President Trump this week. China announced 34% retaliatory tariffs on all American imports starting 10 Apr, in the first Chinese response to Trump’s tariffs. This response was received poorly by Mr Trump, who said they “played it wrong”. While the US tariffs excluded energy products, China’s retaliatory measures targeted all American goods and included export restrictions on certain rare earth elements. JPMorgan expects oil prices to remain low through 2025, citing weak supply-demand fundamentals that could keep prices down without government action. Morgan Stanley is holding its Brent forecast steady at $67.50/bbl for 2H’25. Iraq’s Oil Ministry rejected the Association of the Petroleum Industry of Kurdistan’s (APIKUR) claims of stalled talks, calling them misleading. It reaffirmed its commitment to the federal budget law and urged the immediate resumption of oil exports via the Iraq-Turkey Pipeline. At the time of writing, the Jun/Jul’25 and Jun/Dec’25 Brent futures spreads stood at $0.60/bbl and $1.89/bbl, respectively.