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In this publication, we leverage Onyx’s proprietary Commitment of Traders data in order to identify changes in swap Open Interest and Positioning against Onyx with a view, in conjunction with long/short entry price levels and volatility analysis to identify potential continuation or reversal trends. In this edition, we take a look at the Sep/Oct’25 C3 FEI.
The Oct’25 Brent crude futures trended between $65.90 and $66.60/bbl on Friday afternoon. Prices have been rangebound between $65 and $67/bbl this week. Markets are in a wait-and-see mode ahead of the Trump-Putin summit. Trump posted “HIGH STAKES!!!” on Truth Social today, and speaking on board Air Force One, he said that no business would be discussed unless he sees progress for ending the war in Ukraine. Meanwhile, the Kremlin expects the summit to last 6-7 hours, adding that Russia expects the talks to yield a “result”. In other news, the first two cargoes of Venezuelan oil exported by energy major Chevron set sail for the US after their license was reinstated. Enterprise Products Partners said on Friday that the Seaway crude oil pipeline system resumed full operations after a crude oil leak from its oil terminal earlier this week. The pipeline runs from Cushing to Freeport and connects to the Enterprise Crude Houston (ECHO) terminal. Finally, the front (Oct/Nov) and 6-month (Oct/Apr) Brent futures spreads are at $0.55/bbl and $1.30/bbl respectively.
In this publication, we leverage Onyx’s proprietary Commitment of Traders data in order to identify changes in swap Open Interest and Positioning against Onyx with a view, in conjunction with long/short entry price levels and volatility analysis to identify potential continuation or reversal trends. In this edition, we take a look at the Sep’25 Gasoline Transatlantic Arb (RBOB – EBOB swaps).
Unusually, the eyes of the world are turned to Alaska, the Last Frontier, to find a solution to a significant frontier to peace in our time. Trump says Putin ‘wants to get it done’ at tomorrow’s Alaska summit, and he floated the idea of a second meeting with Zelenskyy. The market hit saturation of terrible TACO-based jokes as President Trump extended the China tariff deadline by 90 days, which eased fears of impacts on the oil market. The men running the US continue to argue about rates, tariffs and inflation as the pendulum seems to have swung in Powell’s favour with a shocking PPI release today. The US PPI numbers just came in way hotter than expected, which is really bad news for inflation. Since PPI usually leads CPI by a couple of months, it likely means consumer prices will jump soon as producers pass those higher costs along. Wild speculation doesn’t stop on land. As we entered August, everyone took off their tariff expert hats and donned their hurricane expert hats. Erin appears to be tracking to miss the US in current projections, but this means as much or as little as you want it to. Just as geopolitical tension could diffuse, there seems plenty of time for fearmongering in the troposphere.
The Oct’25 Brent Futures contract rallied to $66.67/bbl at 14:21 BST before softening to $66.22 at 15.20/bbl. Prices have since bounced back to $66.70/bbl at 17:15 BST (time of writing). In the news, Phillips 66 has reduced gasoline output at its 258 kb/d Bayway refinery in New Jersey following a fire near the plant’s Fluid Catalytic Cracking unit. The fire, involving ancillary equipment, caused a production outage, though the cause remains unclear. The refinery is expected to resume full operations within days. In other news, Russia-backed Indian refiner Nayara Energy said it is working with government authorities and partners to maintain stable operations at its 400 kb/d Vadinar refinery and ensure continued fuel supply, despite EU sanctions disrupting its supply chain. The sanctions forced Nayara to cut output to 70–80% and affected exports and domestic shipping. Azule Energy, a joint venture between BP and Eni, is considering drilling a second gas exploration well in Angola after its successful Gajajeira-01 discovery, which is estimated to hold over 1 trillion cubic feet of gas and 100 mb of condensate. Angola, aiming to boost gas production by over 20% in five years to meet rising domestic and export demand, is shifting focus from oil as its crude output stagnates despite exiting OPEC. Angola targets $60 Bn in oil and gas investments over five years, with key projects like Azule’s New Gas Consortium and Chevron’s Sanha Lean project expected to drive growth. Finally, the front-month Oct-Nov and the 6-month Oct/Apr spreads are at $0.63/bbl and $1.59/bbl respectively.
See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
The Oct’25 Brent crude futures declined by $1 on Wednesday afternoon, falling from $66 to $65/bbl. The prevailing direction of prices is increasingly bearish as headlines develop ahead of the Trump-Putin summit of Friday, with European leaders speaking to both Trump and Zelenskyy. In other news, Ukraine claimed a strike on an oil-pumping station in Russian’s Bryansk region (near border with Ukraine and Belarus), though flows from the system to Europe seem to remain uninterrupted for now. Western sanctions on Russia’s oil exports have slowed the growth of its shadow tanker fleet, now estimated at 1,200-1,600 vessels, making it harder to find suitable ships, though high profits still entice smaller, risk-tolerant operators. The Kurdistan Regional Government and Iraq’s Ministry of Oil have agreed on a new export mechanism allocating 50kb/d for local use and sending the rest to SOMO for export, pending coordination with Türkiye. Finally, the front (Oct/Nov) and 6-month (Oct/Apr) Brent futures spreads are at $0.46/bbl and $1.00/bbl respectively.
The front-month (Oct’25) Brent futures contract has been rangebound between $66 and $66.65/bbl this afternoon, with prices sitting at $66.16/bbl at 17:25 BST (time of writing). OPEC, in its latest oil market report, increased its global oil demand forecast by 100kb/d m/m to +1.38mb/d y/y in 2026. 2025’s forecast was left unchanged at 1.29mb/d. Moreover, OPEC cut its estimate for growth from the US and other producers outside OPEC+ by 100kb/d m/m to +630kb/d y/y in 2026. In a report to parliament, India’s oil ministry said that Indian state oil refiners, which account for over 60% of the country’s refining capacity, will continue to use annual contracts to secure supplies and hedge against market volatilities since “increased imports of Russian crude into India may not last forever”. In other news, the US exported about 30% of its domestic primary energy production in 2024, as per the EIA. Moreover, the US exported 55% of its domestic production of crude oil and natural gas plant liquids (NGPL), 20% of its dry natural gas output and nearly 25% of its coal production. In macro news, US CPI held steady at 2.7% y/y in July, below expectations. Prices excluding food and energy, i.e., core CPI, increased by 3.1% y/y, above forecasts. Finally, at the time of writing, the front (Oct/Nov’25) and six-month (Oct/Apr’26) Brent futures spreads stand at $0.52/bbl and $1.23/bbl, respectively.
The front-month (Oct’25) Brent futures saw support this afternoon and briefly breached the $67/bbl handle at various points, the most recent of which was seen at circa 15:05 BST. However, the contract met resistance here and eased to $66.40/bbl by 16:15 BST. Prices subsequently moved between $66.50-66.80/bbl and stood at $66.70/bbl at 17:35 BST (time of writing). Iraq’s state news agency reported a gradual restoration of power following a significant power outage that hit central and Southern Iraq on Monday due to a sudden shutdown at the Hamidiya power plant in the western province of Anbar. In other news, Malaysian NOC Petronas has announced plans to increase the share of its international portfolio from 40-50% to 60% of its total business over the next decade. Moreover, US LNG developer NextDecade has secured $1.8 billion in funding from TotalEnergies and Global Infrastructure Partners to finance a fourth liquefaction plant at its Rio Grande LNG export project in Texas. In macro news, China continues to struggle with deflationary pressures, as per the National Bureau of Statistics, with a larger-than-expected decline of 3.6% y/y in July 2025 and an unchanged CPI print m/m. Finally, at the time of writing, the front-spread (Oct/Nov’25) and six-month (Oct/Apr’26) Brent futures contract stand at $0.63/bbl and $1.48/bbl, respectively.
In the week ending 1 August, refinery margins declined across all tenors, US refineries saw the largest drop in M1 of -3.3 followed by Europe -2 and Asia -1.51.
On a month-on-month basis, margins also declined, M1 US by -4.26, Asia -3.25 and Europe -2.
In the Asian forwards curve, M2 and M3 remain slightly higher than M1. Overall the curve has flattened out but still remains in contango. The higher M2 margins are driven by stronger M2 levels across the cracks, with MOPJ, kerosene, gasoil, and 380 Dubai cracks priced higher over the past month.
The European refinery forward curve is in contango from M1 through M4 and flattens out between M4 and M7. The curve hikes up around M8.
The US refinery forward curve is in flat from M1 through M6 as the front of the curve drops compared to last week’s. Prices jump at M7 where refinery margins improve by 2.13 compared to a week ago.
In this publication, we leverage Onyx’s proprietary Commitment of Traders data in order to identify changes in swap Open Interest and Positioning against Onyx with a view, in conjunction with long/short entry price levels and volatility analysis to identify potential continuation or reversal trends.
In this edition, we take a look at the Sep’25 NWE Naphtha Crack.
The Oct’25 Brent crude futures strengthened throughout the day before losing almost a dollar in a minute, to $65.84/bbl at 15.08 BST following the Russia/US talk headline. Prices have corrected to $66.90/bbl by 17.19 BST (time of writing). Washington and Moscow are working on a potential Ukraine peace deal that would formalise Russia’s control over occupied territories, including Crimea and the Donbas region. A summit between President Trump and Putin could occur as early as next week. The U.S. is seeking support from Ukraine and European allies, though the deal remains uncertain. China’s President Xi Jinping told Vladimir Putin he welcomes US-Russia contact on resolving the Ukraine war and reaffirmed Beijing’s support for peace talks. The call, held at Putin’s request, followed Kremlin reports that Putin plans to meet Donald Trump soon to seek a diplomatic solution. Exxon Mobil has brought its fourth FPSO online in Guyana, four months ahead of schedule, targeting production of approximately 250 kb/d. This raises the country’s total installed output to around 900 kb/d. Four more FPSOs are planned by 2030. Norway plans its first new oil and gas licensing round in unexplored frontier areas since 2021, aiming to reinforce its role as a key energy supplier to Europe. Energy Minister Terje Aasland emphasised the sector’s importance for jobs and national revenue. The move follows a four-year moratorium agreed in 2021, and comes ahead of parliamentary elections on 8 Sep, with the Labour government narrowly leading in polls. A competing bid has emerged in the US auction of Citgo’s parent company. While a $7.4 billion offer from Gold Reserve was recommended, court officials are now reviewing an unsolicited bid, though it hasn’t yet been deemed superior. Iraq’s navy detained a Liberian-flagged tanker, Liliana, carrying 93,000 mt of fuel oil, as part of a crackdown on smuggling. The ship was seized near Basra and is suspected of attempting to smuggle Iraqi oil. Authorities are holding the vessel pending a judicial review. Finally, the front (Oct/Nov) and 6-month (Oct/Apr) Brent futures spreads are at $0.67/bbl and $1.63/bbl, respectively.
In this publication, we leverage Onyx’s proprietary Commitment of Traders data in order to identify changes in swap Open Interest and Positioning against Onyx with a view, in conjunction with long/short entry price levels and volatility analysis to identify potential continuation or reversal trends. In this edition, we take a look at the Sep’25 Singapore 380 cst crack.
Trump’s drums of liberation are relentless, and India is the latest country on the receiving end of that “liberation”. Perhaps, a special gift ahead of India’s Independence Day next Friday.
The Oct’25 Brent crude futures weakened from $67.30/bbl at 13.55 BST to $66.47/bbl at 16.41 BST before correcting slightly to $66.90/bbl by 17.36 BST (time of writing). US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin are expected to meet in the coming days, according to Kremlin adviser Yuri Ushakov. The meeting could take place as early as next week, with the location already decided but not yet disclosed. Iran maintained near-record oil exports in June, shipping around 1.8 mb/d, one of its strongest performances since 2018. Earlier reports from July had noted similar export volumes over recent months. The latest data confirms that Iran has managed to stabilise its crude oil shipments at these elevated levels. Montenegro has approved its 2025 plan to build mandatory oil reserves, aiming to stockpile 112,340 mt of oil products by mid-2026 to cover three months of supply. The hydrocarbons administration will handle 60% of this, while large importers will cover the rest. Due to funding and storage constraints, the government will only purchase 14,000–19,000 mt of diesel in 2025. China’s crude oil imports rose 11.5% year-on-year in July to 11.12 mb/d, driven by higher run rates from state refiners post-maintenance. However, imports fell 5.4% from June’s 12.14mb/d, when independent refiners stocked up on discounted sanctioned barrels. Refinery utilisation reached 71.84% in July, up from both June and the same period last year. Finally, the front (Oct/Nov) and 6-month (Oct/Apr) Brent futures spreads are at $0.56/bbl and $1.45/bbl, respectively.
