Fuel Oil

The front-month (Oct’25) Brent futures contract has been rangebound between $66 and $66.65/bbl this afternoon, with prices sitting at $66.16/bbl at 17:25 BST (time of writing). OPEC, in its latest oil market report, increased its global oil demand forecast by 100kb/d m/m to +1.38mb/d y/y in 2026. 2025’s forecast was left unchanged at 1.29mb/d. Moreover, OPEC cut its estimate for growth from the US and other producers outside OPEC+ by 100kb/d m/m to +630kb/d y/y in 2026. In a report to parliament, India’s oil ministry said that Indian state oil refiners, which account for over 60% of the country’s refining capacity, will continue to use annual contracts to secure supplies and hedge against market volatilities since “increased imports of Russian crude into India may not last forever”. In other news, the US exported about 30% of its domestic primary energy production in 2024, as per the EIA. Moreover, the US exported 55% of its domestic production of crude oil and natural gas plant liquids (NGPL), 20% of its dry natural gas output and nearly 25% of its coal production. In macro news, US CPI held steady at 2.7% y/y in July, below expectations. Prices excluding food and energy, i.e., core CPI, increased by 3.1% y/y, above forecasts. Finally, at the time of writing, the front (Oct/Nov’25) and six-month (Oct/Apr’26) Brent futures spreads stand at $0.52/bbl and $1.23/bbl, respectively.

The front-month (Oct’25) Brent futures saw support this afternoon and briefly breached the $67/bbl handle at various points, the most recent of which was seen at circa 15:05 BST. However, the contract met resistance here and eased to $66.40/bbl by 16:15 BST. Prices subsequently moved between $66.50-66.80/bbl and stood at $66.70/bbl at 17:35 BST (time of writing). Iraq’s state news agency reported a gradual restoration of power following a significant power outage that hit central and Southern Iraq on Monday due to a sudden shutdown at the Hamidiya power plant in the western province of Anbar. In other news, Malaysian NOC Petronas has announced plans to increase the share of its international portfolio from 40-50% to 60% of its total business over the next decade. Moreover, US LNG developer NextDecade has secured $1.8 billion in funding from TotalEnergies and Global Infrastructure Partners to finance a fourth liquefaction plant at its Rio Grande LNG export project in Texas. In macro news, China continues to struggle with deflationary pressures, as per the National Bureau of Statistics, with a larger-than-expected decline of 3.6% y/y in July 2025 and an unchanged CPI print m/m. Finally, at the time of writing, the front-spread (Oct/Nov’25) and six-month (Oct/Apr’26) Brent futures contract stand at $0.63/bbl and $1.48/bbl, respectively.

The Oct’25 Brent crude futures strengthened throughout the day before losing almost a dollar in a minute, to $65.84/bbl at 15.08 BST following the Russia/US talk headline. Prices have corrected to $66.90/bbl by 17.19 BST (time of writing). Washington and Moscow are working on a potential Ukraine peace deal that would formalise Russia’s control over occupied territories, including Crimea and the Donbas region. A summit between President Trump and Putin could occur as early as next week. The U.S. is seeking support from Ukraine and European allies, though the deal remains uncertain. China’s President Xi Jinping told Vladimir Putin he welcomes US-Russia contact on resolving the Ukraine war and reaffirmed Beijing’s support for peace talks. The call, held at Putin’s request, followed Kremlin reports that Putin plans to meet Donald Trump soon to seek a diplomatic solution. Exxon Mobil has brought its fourth FPSO online in Guyana, four months ahead of schedule, targeting production of approximately 250 kb/d. This raises the country’s total installed output to around 900 kb/d. Four more FPSOs are planned by 2030. Norway plans its first new oil and gas licensing round in unexplored frontier areas since 2021, aiming to reinforce its role as a key energy supplier to Europe. Energy Minister Terje Aasland emphasised the sector’s importance for jobs and national revenue. The move follows a four-year moratorium agreed in 2021, and comes ahead of parliamentary elections on 8 Sep, with the Labour government narrowly leading in polls. A competing bid has emerged in the US auction of Citgo’s parent company. While a $7.4 billion offer from Gold Reserve was recommended, court officials are now reviewing an unsolicited bid, though it hasn’t yet been deemed superior. Iraq’s navy detained a Liberian-flagged tanker, Liliana, carrying 93,000 mt of fuel oil, as part of a crackdown on smuggling. The ship was seized near Basra and is suspected of attempting to smuggle Iraqi oil. Authorities are holding the vessel pending a judicial review. Finally, the front (Oct/Nov) and 6-month (Oct/Apr) Brent futures spreads are at $0.67/bbl and $1.63/bbl, respectively.

The Oct’25 Brent crude futures weakened from $67.30/bbl at 13.55 BST to $66.47/bbl at 16.41 BST before correcting slightly to $66.90/bbl by 17.36 BST (time of writing). US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin are expected to meet in the coming days, according to Kremlin adviser Yuri Ushakov. The meeting could take place as early as next week, with the location already decided but not yet disclosed. Iran maintained near-record oil exports in June, shipping around 1.8 mb/d, one of its strongest performances since 2018. Earlier reports from July had noted similar export volumes over recent months. The latest data confirms that Iran has managed to stabilise its crude oil shipments at these elevated levels. Montenegro has approved its 2025 plan to build mandatory oil reserves, aiming to stockpile 112,340 mt of oil products by mid-2026 to cover three months of supply. The hydrocarbons administration will handle 60% of this, while large importers will cover the rest. Due to funding and storage constraints, the government will only purchase 14,000–19,000 mt of diesel in 2025. China’s crude oil imports rose 11.5% year-on-year in July to 11.12 mb/d, driven by higher run rates from state refiners post-maintenance. However, imports fell 5.4% from June’s 12.14mb/d, when independent refiners stocked up on discounted sanctioned barrels. Refinery utilisation reached 71.84% in July, up from both June and the same period last year. Finally, the front (Oct/Nov) and 6-month (Oct/Apr) Brent futures spreads are at $0.56/bbl and $1.45/bbl, respectively.

The Oct’25 Brent crude futures weakened on Wednesday afternoon, falling from $69/bbl to $67.20/bbl before rebounding towards $68/bbl by 17:45 BST (time of writing). In the news, Saudi Aramco raised the OSP for Arab Light to Asia by $1/bbl to $3.20/bbl above the Oman/Dubai average for September. President Trump announced an additional 25% tariff on goods from India in response to its continued purchase of Russian oil, on top of the existing 25%. According to Reuters sources, a restart of Iraq’s Kurdish oil exports via Turkey’s Ceyhan pipeline is not imminent, despite Iraqi oil minister saying that a resumption was expected on Wednesday or Thursday, after a two-year hiatus. TotalEnergies sold a 45% stake in two Vaca Muerta oil and gas blocks to YPF for $500 million, aiming to refocus on lower-cost core assets in Argentina and major projects in Suriname and Brazil. Dubai-based oil trader 2Rivers, formerly Coral Energy, has begun formal dissolution after UK and EU sanctions, despite denying any breach of Russian oil measures and pledging to challenge the restrictions. Finally, the front (Oct/Nov) and 6-month (Oct/Apr) Brent futures spreads are at $0.65/bbl and $1.80/bbl respectively.

The front-month (Oct’25) Brent futures contract eased from $68.60/bbl at noon today to $68.10/bbl at 14:10 BST, where prices met support and climbed to $69.35/bbl by 16:35 BST. Nevertheless, the futures contract eventually retreated to $68.85/bbl at the time of writing (17:48 BST). US President Donald Trump reiterated today that he will substantially raise tariffs on goods from India, stating, in a post on Truth Social, that “India is not only buying massive amounts of Russian Oil, they are then, for much of the Oil purchased, selling it on the Open Market for big profits. They don’t care how many people in Ukraine are being killed by the Russian War Machine.” In line with this, Indian Oil Corp has purchased 7mb of crude oil from the US, Canada, and the Middle East, as per a Reuters report. However, on the domestic front, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has urged the nation to purchase local goods, and his administration has yet to instruct India’s refiners to curb their purchases of Russian oil. In macroeconomic news, new orders for US-manufactured goods eased by 4.8% in June 2025, which was in line with expectations but followed a revised 8.3% increase in May. Finally, at the time of writing, the front-month (Oct/Nov’25) and six-month (Oct/Apr’26) Brent futures spreads stand at $0.78/bbl and $2.25/bbl