
Trader Meeting Notes: Big, Beautiful Brent
It’s been a remarkably flat week in Brent. Jul’25 is around $64.00/bbl at the time of writing on 22 May, almost exactly where it was this time last week. But what has changed? It feels like a lot has changed. OPEC+ is considering a major output hike of 411kb/d for July (three times the amount initially planned), matching increases in May and June. Brent gapped up around 60c on Tuesday as CNN reported Israel is getting ready to possibly strike Iran’s nuclear facilities, according to several American officials. This comes at a tense moment, as the Trump administration is still trying to negotiate a diplomatic agreement with Tehran. This report of Israel’s strike on Iran was either not believed or not cared about, likely the former, as nuclear strikes would probably perforate even the most headline-fatigued trader among us. If Brent is the calm and flat body of the swan, the product cracks are the legs frantically kicking underneath it. Margins sold off this week around $1.50/bbl initially but have recovered, with the Euro margin at $8.45/bbl at the time of writing.