Fuel Oil

The Dec’25 Brent futures contract initially dipped this afternoon, reaching $65.85/bbl at 15:40 BST before finding support and rising to $66.52/bbl at 17:00 BST (time of writing). In the news, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak stated that Russia has been slowly increasing its oil production, reaching 9.17mb/d, and was close to meeting OPEC+ output quota of 9.4mb/d in September. In his statement, Novak expressed that further diesel and domestic oil refinery restrictions were no longer needed, citing that supply and demand were balanced. Elsewhere, the US has postponed its sanctions on the Russian-owned Serbia NIS oil refinery by one week. According to Reuters, the extension comes as Croatian oil pipeline operator JANAF was given a license by the US to complete contracted volumes of crude to Serbia. In Belgium, the Port of Antwerp-Bruges has been heavily disrupted by Flemish pilots protesting federal pension reforms. In other news, Bloomberg has reported that a US government report showed a decline of around 763kb in domestic stockpiles. Finally, at time of writing, the front month Dec/Jan’26 and 6-month Dec/Jun’26 spreads are at $0.56/bbl and $1.16/bbl, respectively.

The Dec’25 Brent futures contract dipped this afternoon to $65.25/bbl at 14:00 BST before finding support and rising to $65.26/bbl at 17:00 BST. In the news, tanker freight rates for shipping Russian Urals crude to India has risen in late Sep and early Oct, accounting for a dramatic increase in loadings last month. Reuters reported that exports from western Russian ports to India rose by 500kb/d in Sep from Aug to 2.5mb/d. Elsewhere, Belarusian gasoline exports to Russia increased by four times m/m in Sep, due to Russian fuel shortages amid Ukrainian drone attacks. In India, the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas data shows that fuel consumption has hit a year’s low in Sep, by 0.5 percentage point m/m, now at 18.6/mt; Sep fuel demand, on the other hand, was up 7% y/y. Kazakhstan has said that it will increase its crude oil exports to Germany in 2026, after Kazakh national oil and gas company KazMunayGas organized a supply deal with Rosneft Deutschland. In other news, Bloomberg earlier reported that the EU plans to impose sanctions on companies that provided forged national flags for Russian shadow fleets. These sanctions are contingent upon the EU adopting a full sanction package, which requires approval from all 27 member states. Finally, at time of writing, the front month Dec/Jan’26 and 6-month Dec/Jun’26 spreads are at $0.49/bbl and $0.94/bbl, respectively.

The Dec’25 Brent futures fell to $65.63/bbl at 15:00 BST before recovering to $65.73/bbl at 17:00 BST and softening to $65.56/bbl at 17:50 BST (time of writing). In the news, Denmark’s Environment Ministry has said that they are strengthening inspections on oil tankers passing through its waters, as a response to Russia’s growing shadow fleet. Elsewhere, Reuters have reported that Russia’s Kirishi oil refinery (capacity 160kb/d) has halted a crude distillation unit following Ukrainian drone attacks over the weekend; the closure is expected to take around a month. Reuters reported that more Russian crude oil has been made available for Indian refiners, as Ukrainian drone attacks hinder Russian refining capability. In other news, Iranian Oil Minister Mohsen Paknejad has said that a new discovery made in the Pazan gas fields of southern Iran has added 10 trillion cubic feet of gas to national reserves. Finally, at time of writing, the front month Dec/Jan’26 and 6-month Dec/Jun’26 spreads are at $0.42/bbl and $0.84/bbl, respectively.

The Dec ’25 Brent futures contract rallied this afternoon, from $64.36/bbl at 12:00 BST to $64.69/bbl at 17:30 BST (time of writing). Crucially, prices this week have come off to below $65.00/bbl, its lowest levels since June 2025. In the news, Bloomberg reported that OPEC+ will consider reversing another 137kb/d of its previously announced production hikes in November. Elsewhere, a source in the Ukraine’s Security Service has claimed a Ukraine attack on Russia’s Orsk oil refinery, located near the border with Kazakhstan. In related news, Russian president Vladimir Putin criticized US President Trump’s recent pressuring of India to cease Russian crude oil imports. Putin denounced efforts from the US to push Russian crude out of the oil market, stating that India would not bow to US pressure. Finally, at time of writing, the front month Nov/Dec’26 and 6-month Dec/Jun’26 spreads are at $0.37/bbl and $0.68/bbl, respectively.

The Dec’25 Brent Futures contract fell once again this afternoon, from $65.06/bbl at 12:00 BST to $64.38/bbl at 17:02 BST (time of writing). Reuters reported that India has likely exported the all-time high monthly volume of diesel to Europe in September. Volumes are estimated between 9.7mb/d and 10.4mb/d; this increase has been speculated to be due to higher premiums and capacity shortages during maintenance in Europe, incentivising Indian refiners to ship more fuel to the west. Following this surge, export volumes could decline as India is set to jump seasonally with the Diwali festival in late October. Elsewhere, Alberta has proposed a new oil pipeline to the British Columbia coast that could carry up to 1mb/d of crude oil for exportation to Asian markets. The proposal has met swift opposition, especially by the British Columbian government itself, which has historically opposed new pipeline building. In other news, Colonial Pipeline has shut down all three of its main delivery lines due to an outage that began around 10:00 BST today, two traders told Reuters. One trader said the disruption was linked to “computer issues.” Finally, the front month Nov/Dec’26 and 6-month Dec/Jun’26 spreads are at $0.27/bbl and $0.45/bbl, respectively.

The Dec’25 Brent Futures contract dipped this afternoon before recovering, from $65.68/bbl at 12:00 BST to $65.24/bbl at 14:00 BST and rallying to $65.78/bbl at 17:25 BST (time of writing). In the news, Indian imports of Russian crude oil dipped last month, averaging 1.61mb/d, down 1.72mb/d from August and 16% lower as compared to Sep 2024. Bloomberg reported that Indian refiners appear to be gradually broadening their supply basket, though Russian crude continues to account for roughly a third of all crude arrivals in the country. In other news, major US oil companies and their top managers have been targeted by the Sanaa-based Humanitarian Operations Coordination Center (HOCC), a body set up last year to liaise between Houthi forces and commercial shipping operators. As reported by Reuters, the sanctions are in retaliation for US sanctions imposed on the Houthis this year despite a truce agreement with the Trump administration. It is unclear whether these sanctions signal that the Houthis will begin targeting vessels linked to the sanctioned organizations and individuals; this would risk violation of the Trump administration’s ceasefire agreements. In other news, Iraqi Oil Minister Hayyan Abdul Ghani has said that Iraq plans to increase its oil production capacity to 5.5mb/d by the end of this year and plans to have an output capacity of at or above 6mb/d by 2029. Finally, at time of writing, the front-month Dec/Jan’26 and 6-month Dec/June’26 spreads are at $0.37/bbl and $0.89/bbl respectively.

The Nov’25 Brent Futures Contract found support early this afternoon, rising to $67.17/bbl at 14:00 BST before falling briefly to $66.99/bbl at 15:00 BST and recovering to $67.14/bbl at 17:00 BST. In Nigera, a meeting between the Nigerian government, the trade union PENGASSAN, and Dangote (originally planned for today at 14:00 BST) was moved behind doors to the Nigerian Office of the National Security Adviser. A Nigerian official later downplayed the impact of the workers’ strike, claiming a minimal impact, as reported by Bloomberg. In the news, Reuters reported in the early afternoon that OPEC+ was likely to consider a larger oil production increase of up to 500kb/d over 3 months at its meeting on Sunday. Later in the afternoon, however, OPEC+ dismissed these claims via their official X account. OPEC+ claims that discussions have yet to begin. Elsewhere, the US Administration’s pressure on remaining buyers of Russian crude is seemingly backfiring, as Russia’s crude oil exports by sea have hit their highest level since May 2024, reports Bloomberg. Russia exported on average 3.62mb/d in the 4 weeks to 28 Sep, signalling that neither India nor any other major buyers have reduced purchases. In other news, ExxonMobil has announced a layoff of 2,000 workers globally, half of which will be from Imperial Oil, according to an official statement. Finally, at time of writing, the front-month Nov/Dec and 6-month Nov/May spreads are at $0.78/bbl and $1.73/bbl respectively.

The Nov’25 Brent Futures Contract fell this afternoon, dropping nearly $2 from $69.03/bbl at 13:00 BST to $67.87/bbl at 17:46 BST (time of writing). Kurdistan also restarted crude oil flows on Saturday, with export volumes expected to reach full capacity over the next few days, effectively pushing prices down. The Algerian government has seen declining revenues from oil and gas, pushing them to plan a seven-year Islamic bond issue of $2.3 billion, as quoted by Bloomberg. In other geopolitical news, US President Trump hosted Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for pivotal talks on Monday to press him to back a Gaza peace proposal, according to Reuters. Finally, the front-month Nov/Dec and 6-month Nov/May spreads are at $0.82/bbl and $1.93/bbl respectively.