Fuel Oil

Nov’25 Brent futures rallied over the afternoon but failed to maintain strength above $68.00/bbl around 16.30 BST, and softened to $67.68/bbl at the time of writing at 17.05 BST. At the 80th UN General Assembly, US President Donald Trump accused India and China of funding Russia’s war in Ukraine through energy purchases. He warned that if Moscow refuses peace, the US is ready to impose strong tariffs, effective only if Europe joins by ending Russian energy imports. Trump said he would press European leaders on this in New York, reiterating his claim that the war would be the “easiest to end.”. Russia’s Primorsk port is running crude oil loadings two to three days late after a September 12 Ukrainian drone strike damaged two Aframax tankers and port infrastructure. Other vessels, including the Jasmine bound for China, departed behind schedule. The delays may cut exports below the planned 900 kb/d, with Russia redirecting flows from other ports as drone attacks on its energy facilities continue. A deal to resume 230 kb/d of Kurdish oil exports via Turkiye stalled as major producers DNO and Genel demanded repayment assurances on about $1 billion in arrears. Iraq’s cabinet was set to approve the agreement, but the companies have yet to sign on. DNO, owed roughly $300 million, said it had proposed “easy fixes” to move talks forward. Exxon Mobil has begun production at new facilities in its Singapore refinery, converting residue fuel into higher-value base stocks and distillates, boosting capacity by 20,000 barrels per day. Crude imports hit a record 541 kb/d in August, with the refinery shifting fully to high-sulphur crude since April. Finally, at the time of writing, the Nov/Dec’25 and Nov/May’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.64/bbl and $1.69/bbl, respectively.

The Nov’25 Brent futures contract started the afternoon slightly weaker, easing from $66.30/bbl at 12:30 BST to $65.95/bbl at 14:07 BST…

The Nov’25 Brent Futures contract traded rangebound between $66.91/bbl and $67.36/bbl in the early afternoon before falling to $66.46/bbl at 16:31 BST. Prices have since bounces back to $66.69/bbl at 17:30 BST (time of writing). In the news, Democratic senators are urging the Trump administration to reinstate sanctions on Russian LNG, criticizing its inaction as China continues buying shipments that help fund Russia’s war in Ukraine. Despite frustration with Putin, Trump has avoided direct energy sanctions. Lawmakers say this weak enforcement weakens US pressure on Russia and invites other buyers to bypass sanctions. They’ve requested answers by 1 Oct on whether the administration plans to act against recent Russian LNG cargoes delivered to China. In other news, Iraq has given preliminary approval to a deal that would restart oil exports from its Kurdistan region through Turkey. The Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline remains offline due to ongoing legal and political disputes between Baghdad, the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), and international oil companies. However, sources say that Iraq’s cabinet, the KRG, and major foreign firms have tentatively agreed on a plan that would see the KRG deliver 230kb/d to Iraq’s state marketer SOMO, with another 50kb/d reserved for local use. Nigeria is weighing a major overhaul of its oil sector by transferring control of existing oil contracts from the state oil company NNPC to the upstream regulator NUPRC. The move could help boost state income by separating commercial and regulatory roles, however, critics warn it may blur the lines further if the regulator becomes both enforcer and participant. The proposal comes as Nigeria struggles with low production, sabotage, and underinvestment, leaving the sector fragile and uncertain. Finally, the front-month Nov/Dec spread is at $0.60/bbl and the 6-month Nov/May spread is at $1.54/bbl.

Nov’25 Brent futures traded lower on Thursday afternoon, falling below $68/bbl and stabilising around $67.50/bbl. Prices declined after Trump commented that Putin had “really let me down” following a meeting with UK PM Keir Starmer, lamenting the fact that allies continued to purchase Russian energy. In other news, Ukraine said on Thursday that its drones struck a major oil processing and petchem complex and an oil refinery in Russia, as it intensifies its campaign to disrupt Russia’s oil and gas sector. Russia is boosting September oil loadings at Ust-Luga and Novorossiisk to offset Primorsk export delays after drone attacks, keeping overall shipments stable despite refinery outages and infrastructure damage. Nigeria and 15 other African nations have launched the African Petroleum Regulators Forum to harmonise oil regulations, improve transparency and attract investment across the continent’s energy sector. A US judge upheld the validity of PDVSA’s defaulted 2020 bonds backed by Citgo shares, prompting a temporary halt to the Delaware auction of Citgo’s parent as creditors pursue Venezuela’s key US refining asset. After years of pushing a rapid energy transition, California is now courting oil refiners to prevent more plant closures and a potential fuel-supply crunch, delaying a planned profit cap and passing legislation to boost drilling in Kern County even as it keeps longer-term climate goals. Finally, the front (Nov/Dec) and 6-month (Nov/May) Brent futures spreads are at $0.50/bbl and $1.45/bbl respectively.

The November Brent Futures contract has seen a mixed afternoon session, rising from around $67.81/bbl at 11:40 BST to the daily high of $68.57/bbl at 15:30 BST, before being sold into post-EIA stats release down to $68/bbl, and retracing back up to $68.29/bbl at the time of writing. In headlines, EIA stats showcased a significant -9.29mb draw in US crude stocks, contrasting expectations of a 1.77mb build, gasoline inventories also contracted 2.35mb over the week, while distillates rose 4.05mb. Japanese energy giant JERA is in advanced talks to buy shale gas assets in Louisiana’s Haynesville basin from GEP Haynesville II, a joint venture between GeoSouthern Energy and Williams Cos, in a deal valued at about $1.7 billion, Reuters reports. The move aligns with Japan’s pledge under the US-Japan trade agreement to boost American energy imports, including potential LNG offtake deals from Alaska. Separately, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov said on Wednesday that Moscow and Washington are continuing talks on economic cooperation, highlighting the Sakhalin-1 oil and gas project as a key area under discussion. The discussions, which follow reports that the US and Russia had considered Exxon’s possible return to Sakhalin-1 ahead of the Trump-Putin meeting in August, are part of broader proposals linking potential energy agreements to progress on Ukraine peace efforts and the possible easing of US sanctions on Moscow. At the time of writing, the front (Nov/Dec) and 6-month (Nov/May) Brent spreads are at $0.52/bbl and $1.54/bbl, respectively.

Nov’25 Brent futures strengthened this afternoon, from $67.65/bbl at 13.00 BST to $68.45/bbl at 17.28 BST (time of writing). Russia’s state pipeline operator Transneft has warned oil producers they may need to cut output after a wave of Ukrainian drone strikes damaged export ports and refineries, three industry sources told Reuters. The attacks have disrupted facilities, including Ust-Luga and Primorsk. While Primorsk, which handles over 1 mb/d, has partly resumed operations, the scale of the damage remains unclear. Moscow denies the reports as “fake”. Japan’s Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato said Tokyo cannot impose the 50% tariffs on Russian oil buyers demanded by US President Donald Trump, citing WTO rules that bar duties above set limits. He noted Japan is instead working with G7 partners on other ways to pressure Moscow to end the war in Ukraine. India and the US have agreed to step up efforts toward finalising a “mutually beneficial” trade deal after marathon talks in New Delhi, signalling an easing of recent tariff tensions. While optimism is building, experts caution that progress will hinge on sensitive issues like India’s Russian oil imports and protections for its agriculture and dairy sectors. Finally, at the time of writing, the front-month (Nov/Dec’25) and six-month (Nov/May’25) Brent futures spreads stand at $0.45/bbl and $1.40/bbl, respectively.

The front-month (Nov’25) Brent futures contract traded around the $67/bbl handle this afternoon, climbing from $67/bbl at noon today to a peak of $67.80/bbl at 15:53 BST, where it met resistance before stabilising around $67.30/bbl at 17:17 BST (time of writing).

Nov’25 Brent futures has consolidated after the Friday morning rally which saw prices rise by over $2 up to $68/bbl before coming off to $67.50/bbl at 17:00 BST (time of writing). Despite a relatively large intraday trading range, from a technical perspective, Brent continues to trade within a narrowing symmetrical triangle, which suggests that a breakout in either direction is imminent. Brent is on track for a higher weekly close despite the OPEC news and the IEA coming out to forecast a larger surplus, as traders focused on geopolitical risks. This includes Ukraine’s drone attack on Russia’s Primorsk port, a key Baltic Sea loading terminal for its crude and product flows. This is in addition to Washington pushing for secondary sanctions on India and China. Valero has taken its 65kb/d FCCU and 12kb/d alkylation unit offline at the 180kb/d Memphis refinery for planned maintenance through 1 Nov, alongside work on the flare gas recovery unit and a hydrotreater catalyst change. According to Vortexa, Americas crude export growth is moving south as US shipments slip while rising light-sweet supply from Guyana and Brazil drives export gains and supports Suezmax tonne-mile demand. Finally, the front (Nov/Dec) and 6-month (Nov/May) Brent futures spreads are at $0.45/bbl and $1.29/bbl respectively.