Gasoline is a key fuel for automobiles, playing a central role in powering personal and commercial vehicles, underpinning the mobility that fuels economic activities around the world.
Find live prices on Flux Terminal. Trade gasoline cost-free on Onyx Markets.
The naphtha swaps market remains largely lacklustre as market players seek direction in the market. A drone attack on the Russian Black Sea port of Novorossiysk took the second-largest exporting terminal of Russian naphtha offline briefly….
The Jan’26 Brent futures contract eased this afternoon, from $64.70/bbl at 14:00 GMT to $64.37/bbl at 17:15 GMT (time of writing). In the news, the BBC has reported that a Turkish LPG tanker was struck by Russian drones in the Odesa port of Izmail. Civilian vessels were reportedly damaged, and the nearby village of Plauru has been ordered to evacuate. The tanker, Orinda, carried 4kt of gas; exact damages and impacts have yet to be officially reported. In other news, Reuters has reported that Iraq is seeking a 6-month waiver from US sanctions on Russia’s Lukoil to delay the selling of its stake in the West-Qurna-2 oilfield. Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani has met with Vagit Alekperov, the former CEO of Lukoil, according to the Prime Minister’s office, to discuss the waiver request. No further details were given. In the US, Chevron is reportedly considering options to acquire Lukoil’s foreign assets, according to Reuters’ sources. Chevron looks to purchase assets where the companies overlap, though no official comment has been made from the US major. In other news, Gulf Keystone Petroleum has announced that international oil firms in Iraq’s semi-autonomous Kurdistan region have loaded their first export shipment from Turkey’s Ceyhan terminal. The company anticipates payment for its share of the first cargo within 30 days and a second lifting at the end of this month. Finally, at the time of writing, the front-month Jan/Feb’26 and 6-month Jan/Jul’26 spreads are at $0.44/bbl and $0.99/bbl, respectively.
In the week ending 14 November, Refinery Margins continued to rise across all regions: Asian M1 Margins up to $14.15/bbl (+$0.94/bbl w/w), European M1 Margins up to $12.36/bbl (+$0.59/bbl w/w), and US Margins up to $18.46/bbl (+$1.08/bbl w/w). Asian margins were driven up by Sing 92 cracks, which increased by +$0.45/bbl w/w. The 380 Brent Crack was the biggest mover, decreasing by -$1.16/bbl w/w, the 92 Brent Crack was close, increasing by +$0.94/bbl w/w.In Europe, the EBOB Brent crack was the biggest mover, increasing by +$1.82/bbl w/w.
The Jan’26 Brent futures contract rose this afternoon, from $63.70/bbl at 13:30 GMT to $64.60/bbl at 16:00 GMT (time of writing). In the news, Reuters has reported that Russia’s Saratov oil refinery (capacity 147kb/d) has halted operations following Ukrainian drone attacks. Per Reuters’ sources, the refinery could remain down until the end of this month. Elsewhere, a Bloomberg report states that Iran has seized an oil tanker shortly after it passed the Strait of Hormuz; the Marshall Island-flagged tanker, Talara, was seized in the Gulf of Oman. On board is high-sulfur gasoil from the UAE’s port of Hamriyah, which was loaded in October. Iran has yet to acknowledge or officially comment on the incident. In Britain, the Office of Financial Sanctions Implementation has paused sanctions that will permit Bulgaria’s Burgas refinery (owned by Russia’s Lukoil) to resume business with firms and banks. The granted special license allows payments and economic resources to pass between two Bulgarian entities under existing or new contracts and is set to expire on 14 February 2026. A Reuters source has reportedly claimed that the US is expected to issue a similar license later today, though no official statements have been made. In other news, Russia’s Lukoil has stated that it is in talks with potential buyers of its foreign assets, saying that the “specific deal will be announced after the final agreements have been reached and the necessary regulatory approvals have been obtained.” No information on the potential buyer(s) was detailed in the Reuters report. Finally, at the time of writing, the front-month Jan/Feb’26 and 6-month Jan/Jul’26 spreads are at $0.41/bbl and $1.01/bbl, respectively.
In this edition, we take a look at the Dec’25 Dated/Brent (DFL).
In this edition, we take a look at the Dec’25 0.5% East/West.
The Jan’26 Brent Futures contract fell this afternoon to $63.02/bbl at 16:06 GMT, before recovering to $63.30/bbl at 16:59 BST. At 17:30 BST (time of writing) prices had softened to $63.15/bbl. In the news, Lukoil faces US sanctions pressure, forcing quick action as deals risk being blocked before the 21 November deadline. Sanctions have disrupted operations in Iraq, Finland, and Bulgaria, with a planned asset sale to Gunvor blocked. Bidders are circling foreign assets, including KazMunayGas’s interest in Karachaganak and Shell’s bid for deepwater blocks in Ghana and Nigeria. Egypt and Moldova are also involved targets. Reuters analysts warn proceeds could be frozen or assets seized under trusteeship if sold now. In other news, Russia’s oil processing fell 3% this year as refineries used spare capacity to offset Ukraine’s drone attacks, which targeted 17 major refineries. Even with 20% offline at the peak, refining volume dropped about 6% to 5.1 mb/d. Refineries operated below capacity, restarting spare units and repairing damaged ones quickly. Western sanctions hinder spare parts, but Russia pursued domestic production and Chinese imports to keep repairs moving, though at higher costs and longer timelines. South Sudan’s petroleum ministry says it has asked for $2.5 Bn in oil-backed loans from two international firms, a sum larger than the government’s annual budget and about the UN’s estimate of loans received since 2011. The letters were sent late last month; no funds have been transferred. The requests propose repaying the loans within 54 months of disbursement, with $1 Bn from ONGC Nile Ganga B.V. and $1.5 Bn from CNPC, tied to crude oil entitlements controlled by the national oil company. Finally, the front-month Jan/Feb and 6-month Jan/Jul spreads are at $0.36/bbl and $0.66/bbl respectively.
The US government shutdown is finally over! Everyone, mind your manners and say welcome back; the journey was not easy. It has been 43 tense days, and the Democrats will be tending to their wounds for the time being. As for oil, things initially seemed to be looking up. The return of a functioning US government injected some optimism into demand, and Brent prices caught a nice lift from the Senate’s funding bill earlier this week, briefly breaking past $65/bbl. But unfortunately for Brent, what goes up must come down, and an OPEC report made sure that the landing hurt. In its 12 November report, OPEC revised its projections to show a more balanced market by 2026, effectively abandoning the deficit forecast it had defended all quarter. In response, Brent saw itself out and retreated back to its $62/bbl handle. The IEA also could not hold the line this week, as it conceded that demand will likely rise through this decade, letting go of its previous ‘peak oil’ narrative. But you know what else went up and hasn’t come down? Gasoline. Gasoline cracks have been on a relentless tear this month, leaving traders scratching their heads and wondering just how high is too high. Refinery margins are soaring too, hitting fresh yearly highs this week. Refiners, it seems, have a nice thing going for them on cloud nine. Now, just for a reality check, we must say that the North Sea isn’t doing so hot. The Dated physical differential collapsed this week, as Vitol did a 180 and offered heaps of cargoes in the window; naturally, the herd followed and resulted in the front three CFDs falling into contango.
The Jan’26 Brent futures contract slipped this afternoon, from $64.50/bbl at 13:00 GMT to $62.80/bbl at 16:30 GMT (time of writing). In the news, an OPEC report has forecast that global supply in 2026 will match demand, marking a shift from its previous projections of a supply deficit. The report details that the producer group expects global oil demand to rise by 1.3mb/d this year and at a slightly faster rate in 2026. Elsewhere, President Rumen Radev of Bulgaria has vetoed legislation that would enable the government to seize Lukoil’s Burgas refinery and sell it to shield it from US sanctions. In a statement, Radev has said that the application of the law has been expanded dangerously, though parliament may override his veto. In Russia, seaborne oil product exports remained largely unchanged this month compared to September, as refineries completed their seasonal maintenance, according to a Reuters report. While overall volumes were steady this month, particular flows were disrupted due to US sanctions and continued drone attacks. In other news, Reuters has reported that Russia and Kazakhstan have agreed to strengthen their partnership in the oil sector following talks between the nations’ respective presidents. However, no particular details were given during Kazakh President Tokayev’s televised remarks. Finally, at time of writing, the front-month Jan/Feb’26 and 6-month Jan/Jul’26 spreads are at $0.25/bbl and $0.44/bbl, respectively.
See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
The Jan’26 Brent futures contract rose this afternoon, from $64.45/bbl at 13:00 GMT to $65.28/bbl at 17:00 GMT (time of writing). According to Reuters, Chinese refinery Yanchang Petroleum (capacity 348kb/d) is seeking non-Russian oil in its latest crude tender for December to mid-February delivery. Simultaneously, Sinopec’s subsidiary, Luoyang Petrochemical (capacity 200kb/d), has closed its two crude distillation units for maintenance until late November, partly due to Western sanctions. Elsewhere, Russia’s crude oil deliveries to Asia via the Northern Sea Route have decreased 4.2% y/y to about 13mb, according to Kommersant daily. The use of the North Sea route is limited to warmer months, as early winter ice already hinders tanker movements, according to satellite data. In Bulgaria, the chairman of the state reserves agency stated that the country has approximately one month of gasoline supplies remaining as it prepares for US sanctions on Russia’s Lukoil, which owns the nation’s largest oil refinery and a significant portion of its storage and pipeline infrastructure. Elsewhere, India’s state-owned ONGC has reported a 17.8% y/y decline in its net profit for Q3 2025, with crude realisations at $67.23/bbl. In other news, TotalEnergies, Qatar Energy, and Petronas have signed a 5-year deal with Guyana to explore a shallow-water block, according to company executives. Finally, at time of writing, the front-month Jan/Feb’26 and 6-month Jan/Jul’26 spreads are at $0.29/bbl and $0.73/bbl, respectively.
The Jan’26 Brent futures contract eased this afternoon, from $64.10/bbl at 14:00 GMT to $63.42/bbl at 17:00 GMT (time of writing). In the news, Reuters reported that Russia’s Lukoil has declared force majeure at its Iraqi oil field, West Qurna-2 (capacity 480kb/d), with Bulgaria well poised to seize the refinery. According to a senior Iraqi oil industry official, if the reasons for the extenuating circumstances are not resolved within six months, Lukoil will cease production and completely withdraw from the project. In other news, a Reuters report has stated that India’s HPCL refiner is seeking two cargoes of naphtha for November delivery, following the disruption of its Russian supplies amid US sanctions on Russia; the prompt tender has been extended to 12 November. Elsewhere, Eni and Petronas plan to initiate as many as eight new upstream projects in Indonesia and Malaysia over the next three years, according to Eni’s Chief Executive, Claudio Descalzi. The joint venture intends to combine a portfolio of gas-producing and development assets in Malaysia and Indonesia, with an initial production rate exceeding 300 kb/d. Finally, the front-month Jan/Feb’26 and 6-month Jan/Jul’26 spreads are at $0.22/bbl and $0.36/bbl.
The naphtha swaps market was relatively flat last week. Despite a general lack of direction, US sanctions on Russia have continued to support the swaps market as it searches for greater conviction. Nigeria’s Dangote refinery continues its maintenance, this time the CDU, perhaps contributing to the stronger European naphtha market we saw late last week. Players in the NWE naphtha market added to length, led by good buying from trade houses. These same players in Eastern naphtha (MOPJ) appeared risk-averse, gradually trimming their shorts throughout the week. A two-tiered market between sanctioned and non-sanctioned products remains relevant this week.
The gasoline complex continued to be very well supported this week, reaching new seasonal highs across European and Singapore benchmarks. The M1 RBOB swap crack rallied from finding support at the 50-day moving average at $14.00/bbl on 03 Nov and rose to a high of $16.90/bbl on 07 Nov.
In the week ending 07 November, Refinery Margins rose across all regions: Asian M1 Margins up to $13.21/bbl (+$0.64/bbl w/w), European M1 Margins up to $11.77/bbl (+$0.56/bbl w/w), and US Margins up to $17.38/bbl (+$0.65/bbl w/w).
Asian margins were driven up by 92 Brent Crack and Dubai 92 Crack which increased by +$1.81/bbl w/w and +$2.01/bbl w/w respectively. The S10 Brent Crack was the biggest mover, increasing by +$2.87/bbl w/w, the Kero Dubai Crack was close by increasing by +$2.75/bbl w/w.
In Europe ICE Gasoil crack was the biggest mover, increasing by +$3.19/bbl w/w, EBOB Cracks also saw strength, increasing by $2.63/bbl.
