Gasoline

The Aug’25 Brent futures contract slowly rallied up to $64.59/bbl at 14:35 BST before jumping up to $65.03/bbl at 16:43 BST. Prices have since come off to $64.65/bbl at 17:30 BST. In the news, OPEC+ has agreed to create a mechanism to set new oil production baselines for 2027, aiming to reflect countries’ true capacity amid shifting output levels. No immediate policy changes were made, but eight members may agree on Saturday to a July output increase of 411kb/d. Current output cuts remain in place, with some being gradually lifted through October. In other news, Russia may revise the $60/bbl baseline in its budget rule due to falling oil prices, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said. The rule currently directs oil revenue above $60/bbl to the National Wealth Fund, while revenue shortfalls are covered when prices drop below that level. With Urals crude recently near $50/bbl and oil revenues down 24%, Russia is now projecting a larger 2025 budget deficit, 1.7% of GDP, up from 0.5%. More from Russia, where sanctioned tankers have recently been involved in ship-to-ship transfers of Russian crude that later arrived in India, Bloomberg reports. India, a top buyer of Russian oil alongside China, prohibits sanctioned vessels from unloading at its ports. Indian refiners maintain they comply with sanctions and the G7 price cap. In May, India is set to import nearly 1.8mb/d of Russian oil driven by increased purchases of lighter grades like ESPO. Finally, the front-month Jul/Aug spread is at $0.58/bbl and the 6-month Jul/Jan’26 spread is at $1.65/bbl.

The Jul’25 Brent futures initially jumped up to $64.55 at 08:57 BST before falling to $64.09 at 09:33 BST. Prices then rallied back up to $64.64 at11:30 BST (time of writing). In the news, Israel has denied a New York Times report claiming Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu threatened to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities to derail US-Iran nuclear talks. The article cited concerns among Israeli officials that President Trump may accept an interim deal allowing Iran to retain enrichment capabilities. In other news, the Trump administration has issued a limited authorization for Chevron to keep its assets in Venezuela but barred it from operating oilfields, exporting oil, or expanding activities. This follows the expiration of a broader license granted under Biden. The move aims to prevent financial support to President Maduro’s government. Venezuela’s oil output has been slowly recovering but remains low due to sanctions and mismanagement. Norwegian energy firm Okea has discovered oil at the Prince prospect in the North Sea, according to the Norwegian Offshore Directorate. The find is estimated at 1.9mb to 17.5mb. Located near the Brage field, Okea operates the site with a 35.2% stake, alongside partners Lime Petroleum, DNO, Petrolia Novo, and M Vest Energy. Saudi Arabia may lower its July crude oil prices for Asia to the lowest in six months, according to a Reuters survey of refiners. The official selling price (OSP) for Arab Light is forecasted to drop by 40–50 cents. The move follows falling oil prices amid rising OPEC+ supply and weaker global demand. Finally, the front-month Jul/Aug and 6-month Jul/Jan’26 spreads are at $0.55/bbl and $1.47/bbl respectively.

The Jul’25 Brent futures contract fell all afternoon to $63.53/bbl at 16:39 BST. Prices have slightly recovered to $64.01/bbl at 17:45 BST (time of writing). In the news, OPEC+ is expected to announce another oil output increase for July when eight core members meet on Saturday, three group delegates told Reuters. The hike, likely to match the 411kb/d increases seen in May and June, is part of a phased unwinding of voluntary cuts as demand climbs. No policy change is anticipated at the broader group’s meeting next Wednesday. SEB analysts suggest the move is already priced into the market. In other news, a wildfire in northern Alberta has led to the evacuation of the town of Swan Hills and the temporary shutdown of local oil and gas operations. Aspenleaf Energy shut in 4kb/d of production and evacuated field staff as a precaution. The fire marks Alberta’s first significant blaze this spring, echoing past years when wildfires disrupted hundreds of thousands of barrels per day in oil production. Saudi Aramco is set to price a three-part US dollar bond next Tuesday, aiming to raise at least $500 million, according to IFR. The move is part of a broader effort to boost funding as oil prices fall and Saudi Arabia’s budget deficit widens. Finally, the front-month Jul/Aug spread is at $0.53/bbl and the 6-month Jul/Jan’26 spread is at $1.40/bbl.

The Jul’25 Brent futures contract initially dropped from $64.58/bbl down to $63.41/bbl at 13:10 BST. Prices then rallied all afternoon to $65.01/bbl but slightly came off to $64.72 at 17:15 BST (time of writing). In the news, US President Donald Trump proposed a 50% tariff on EU imports starting June 1. EU and US trade officials are set to discuss the issue later today. The proposed tariffs triggered sharp declines in European stocks and bond yields, with economists warning of a serious escalation in trade tensions. The EU is considering countermeasures but prefers a negotiated solution. In other news, Suriname is aiming to expand its offshore oil exploration with increased interest from majors like Shell, TotalEnergies, and Petronas. TotalEnergies is leading the $10.5B GranMorgu project, expected to produce first oil in 2028 from reserves of over 750mb. The project includes a 220kb/d FPSO and is forecast to boost Suriname’s GDP by 55% in 2028, according to the IMF. Iraq’s federal government said Friday that recent energy deals signed between US companies and the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) violate the constitution and must be approved by Baghdad. This comes after the KRG formalized two major agreements with HKN Energy and WesternZagros, targeting development of the Topkhana block, estimated to hold 5 trillion cubic feet of gas and 900mb of oil. Iraq’s Oil Ministry emphasized it has no issue with US firms operating in Iraq, but only through official federal channels, not directly with the KRG. Finally the front-month Jul/Aug and 6-month Jul/Jan’26 Brent spreads are at $0.59/bbl and $1.63/bbl respectively

The Jul’25 Brent futures contract saw prices rally all afternoon to $65.95/bbl at 17:35 BST before falling off to $64.42/bbl at 18:00 BST (time of writing). In the news, Indonesia is questioning a number Singapore-based trading firms as part of a $12B corruption probe into oil imports by state energy firm Pertamina between 2018 and 2023. Several Pertamina executives have been arrested, and authorities may question the firms in Singapore after failed summonses. Elliott Investment Management, now holding 5% of BP, is pressing for a quick replacement for outgoing Chair Helge Lund to drive a strategic revamp. The activist fund favours candidates with fossil fuel or mining backgrounds to restore investor confidence. BP may also need a new CEO, with former BP exec and current Rolls-Royce CEO Tufan Erginbilgic seen as a strong option. In other news, Brazil’s Finance Minister Fernando Haddad said oil exploration near the mouth of the Amazon River should proceed, but warned it must not delay the country’s shift to clean energy. The region is seen as Brazil’s most promising for new oil discoveries, yet drilling is controversial due to its location in the Amazon basin .Haddad emphasized the need to reduce reliance on oil through investments in alternative energy, reaffirming Brazil’s leadership in the global energy transition. According to Reuters, a potential US-Iran nuclear deal could lift sanctions on Tehran’s oil exports, flooding global markets and threatening China’s independent “teapot” refineries. These small refineries rely heavily on discounted and sanctioned Iranian crude. Finally, the front-month Jul/Aug and 6-month Jul/Jan’26 spreads are at $0.72/bbl and $2.02/bbl respectively.

The Jul’25 Brent futures contract initially climbed to $66.30/bbl at 13:16 BST but retreated throughout the afternoon to $64.97/bbl at17:30 BST (time of writing). In the news, the EIA reported that US crude and fuel inventories unexpectedly rose last week. Crude stocks increased by 1.3mb to 443.2 million, contrary to forecast. Crude imports hit a six-week high at 2.58mb/d, while refinery runs and utilization slightly increased. Gasoline stocks grew by 816kb, despite expectations for a decline, and gasoline demand fell to 8.6 mb/d. Distillate stocks also rose by 580kb, just missing expectations. In other news, Continental Resources estimates Turkey’s Diyarbakır Basin holds 6.1 billion barrels of shale oil, equal to 17 years of current imports. A joint venture with Turkey’s TPAO and TransAtlantic Petroleum aims to develop the region, which may also hold up to 20 TCF of gas. South Africa plans to wait for global oil prices to reach around $100/bbl before selling more of its strategic crude reserves, said Godfrey Moagi, CEO of the state-owned South African National Petroleum Company. South Africa aims to generate about 4B rand ($223 million) from reserve sales by March 2026 but will hold off unless prices rise. The nation’s strategic reserves stand at roughly 7.7 mb, with some sales already made to local firms Sasol and TotalEnergies’ local unit. Finally the front-month Jul/Aug and 6-month Jul/Jan’26 spreads are at $0.53/bbl and $1.46/bbl respectively.

The Jul’25 Brent futures contract saw prices rally to $65.65/bbl at 14:21 BST before falling off to $54.94/bbl at 14:51 BST. Prices then bounced back to $65.53/bbl at 17:30 BST (time of writing). In the news, Kazakhstan’s oil output rose 2% in May to 1.86 mb/d. The increase follows April’s 3% drop but still exceeds the country’s OPEC+ quota of 1.486 mb/d. Kazakhstan blames its repeated overproduction on the difficulty of curbing output from Western-led projects like Tengiz. The energy ministry insists it remains committed to OPEC+ and will offset excess output by 2026 but prioritizes national interests. In other news, Ukraine is urging the G7 to lower the price cap on Russian seaborne oil from $60/bbl to $30/bbl to tighten economic pressure on Moscow, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha said. This comes as the EU and UK announced new sanctions targeting Russia’s “shadow fleet” and financial networks helping it evade existing restrictions. While the EU is considering a revised cap of $50/bbl, Ukraine wants a more aggressive cut. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) warned on Tuesday that an above-average Atlantic hurricane season could disrupt oil production and refining along the Gulf Coast. With around 17 named storms forecast, weather-related shutdowns are increasingly likely. More than 1mb/d of refining capacity, about 5% of US petroleum consumption, could be preemptively halted in the path of major storms. AccuWeather expects 3 to 6 storms to directly hit the US this season, which runs June through November. Finaly, at the time of writing, the front-month Jul/Aug and 6-month Jul/Jan’26 spreads are at $0.62/bbl and $1.67/bbl respectively.

The Jul’25 Brent futures contract saw prices rally all afternoon to $65.95/bbl at 17:35 BST before falling off to $64.42/bbl at 18:00 BST (time of writing). In the news, Indonesia is questioning a number Singapore-based trading firms as part of a $12B corruption probe into oil imports by state energy firm Pertamina between 2018 and 2023. Several Pertamina executives have been arrested, and authorities may question the firms in Singapore after failed summonses. Elliott Investment Management, now holding 5% of BP, is pressing for a quick replacement for outgoing Chair Helge Lund to drive a strategic revamp. The activist fund favours candidates with fossil fuel or mining backgrounds to restore investor confidence. BP may also need a new CEO, with former BP exec and current Rolls-Royce CEO Tufan Erginbilgic seen as a strong option. In other news, Brazil’s Finance Minister Fernando Haddad said oil exploration near the mouth of the Amazon River should proceed, but warned it must not delay the country’s shift to clean energy. The region is seen as Brazil’s most promising for new oil discoveries, yet drilling is controversial due to its location in the Amazon basin .Haddad emphasized the need to reduce reliance on oil through investments in alternative energy, reaffirming Brazil’s leadership in the global energy transition. According to Reuters, a potential US-Iran nuclear deal could lift sanctions on Tehran’s oil exports, flooding global markets and threatening China’s independent “teapot” refineries. These small refineries rely heavily on discounted and sanctioned Iranian crude. Finally, the front-month Jul/Aug and 6-month Jul/Jan’26 spreads are at $0.72/bbl and $2.02/bbl respectively.

The Jul’25 Brent futures contract saw prices rangebound between $64.60/bbl and $65.02/bbl in the early afternoon. Prices then rallied to $65.47/bbl at 17:45 BST (time of writing). In the news, the first round of talks between Russia and Ukraine conclude. President Zelenskiy dismissed Russia’s terms and coordinated with US President Trump and European leaders for a stronger response. Russia said talks could continue, but President Putin declined a direct meeting with Zelenskiy. In other news, Nigerian oil firm Renaissance Energy has halted production into the Trans Niger Pipeline following an operational incident on May 6 that caused an oil spill in the B-Dere community in Ogoniland. The pipeline has a capacity of around 450kb/d and has now seen two incidents in as many months. China has become the top buyer of Canadian oil shipped through the newly expanded Trans Mountain pipeline. Since full operations began in June 2024, Canada has exported an average of 207kb/d to China via the pipeline, up from just 7kb/d in the previous decade. In contrast, US imports from the pipeline averaged 173kb/d. The US is intensifying efforts to block Iran’s oil exports to China by cracking down on financial and logistical loopholes. According to Bloomberg, US Treasury officials visited Hong Kong in April to warn local banks against facilitating transactions linked to Iranian oil sales, especially those involving front companies and non-dollar currencies. Finally, the front month Jul/Aug spread is at $0.61/bbl and the 6-month spread Jul/Jan’26 is at $1.57/bbl.