Gasoline

The Dec’25 Brent futures contract has risen this afternoon, from $60.68/bbl at 12:00 BST to $61.17/bbl at 17:00 BST. In the news, a morning fire at BP’s Whiting refinery in Indiana (capacity 440kb/d) has been extinguished, resulting in multiple units taken offline. BP has yet to further detail the extent of the refinery’s operational status. In other news, Reuters has reported that Western pressure on Asian purchasing of Russian energy could limit India’s oil imports in December. The report also casted doubt on the likeliness of Japan ceasing Sakhalin LNG shipments, given the country’s dependency on the Russian source. In India, industry sources told Reuters that they have yet to see cuts to Russian crude oil imports and have not asked refiners to cut imports of Russian crude yet. This sits in contrast to US President Trump’s earlier comments this week, where he claimed that Indian Prime Minister Modi had agreed to half Russian crude imports. In China, state-owned oil company CNPC has continued to produce and export oil from a recently expanded Nigerian oil field, despite continuing disputes with local authorities. Military leadership expelled Chinese expatriates earlier this year, insisting that CNPC hire more local workers and address pay gaps. Despite this, according to Reuters sources, total export sales from the field have reached $2bn and capacity has increased to 900kb/d. Finally, at time of writing, the front-month Dec/Jan’26 and 6-month Dec/Jun’26 spreads are at $0.15/bbl and -$0.19/bbl, respectively.

The Dec’25 Brent futures contract fell this afternoon, from $62.50/bbl at 12:30 BST to $61.39/bbl at 16:45 BST. Prices met support here, recovering to $62.02/bbl at 17:00 BST (time of writing). In the news, Bloomberg has reported that Dangote Refinery is slashing its crude purchases as it faces operational challenges. The refinery is set to import 300kb/d in October, half as much as the 600kb/d purchases seen in July. In other news, new EIA data has revealed a 6.7% drop in refinery utilisation and a 3.52mb w/w build in crude oil inventories, reaching 423.8mb. Elsewhere, Bloomberg reports that Canadian oil exports to China have surged and is on track for a record month. In October, nearly 5mb have been exported from Vancouver; this rate, according to Bloomberg, is a record for the first 2 weeks of any month. More than 70% of oil-carrying vessels leaving British Colombian ports have been destined for China, as the Chinese pivot away from US crude oil. In the EU, the bloc’s energy committee has supported proposals for a quicker phase-out of Russian gas, banning imports of natural gas from the beginning of 2026. The proposal now faces Parliament for approval and amendments. In India, officials have stated that India remains ‘unaware’ of US President Trump’s claim that Prime Minister Modi pledged to cease Russian oil purchases. Finally, at time of writing, the front-month Dec/Jan’26 and 6-month Dec/Jun’26 spreads are at $0.27/bbl and $0.16/bbl, respectively.

The Dec’25 Brent futures contract initially rose to $63.01/bbl at 14:00 BST before dropping to $61.83/bbl at 17:30 BST (time of writing). In the news, Reuters have reported that Russia’s Novorossiisk port has reached maximum export capacity, reaching 800kb/d last month. According to Reuters estimates, this level is the highest rate in at least 5 years. Elsewhere, Ukrainian economy minister Oleksii Sobolev has stated that Ukraine is considering importing American LNG, amidst struggling Russian gas infrastructure. No further details have been made public, though the energy ministry has said last week that it wants to increase Ukrainian gas imports by 30%. In the UK, foreign secretary Yvette Cooper announced sanctions against Russia’s Rosneft and Lukoil. The new sanctions targets Russia’s shadow fleet and bans UK businesses or individuals from engaging in trade with the sanctioned firms. In other news, the EU has extended an invite to Serbia to join its communal gas-buying initiative, as it looks to reduce Serbian dependence on Russian fossil fuels. In Norway, the government’s Labour party has proposed to raise spending from its $2 trillion oil fund in 2026. Finally, at the time of writing, the front-month Dec/Jan’26 and 6-month Dec/Jun’26 spreads are at $0.27/bbl and $0.19/bbl, respectively.

The Dec’25 Brent futures contract rose this afternoon, from $61.53/bbl at 12:00 BST to $62.40/bbl before easing to $62.00/bbl at 16:30 BST (time of writing). In the news, the IEA has reported a decrease in Russia’s crude oil and fuel export revenues for September, falling to $13.35bn from $13.58bn in August. Exports of refined products have dropped to their lowest level in a decade, excluding the COVID-19 period. Elsewhere, Reuters have reported that Egypt is planning to drill 480 exploratory wells with 101 of which scheduled for 2026. The development is backed by various investments totalling about $5.7bn over the course of 5 years. In India, the country’s foreign ministry has announced that a Mongolian oil refinery, backed by Indian investment, is expected to begin operations in 2028. Its expected capacity is 30kb/d and will be Mongolia’s first oil refinery. In other news, TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanné stated that non-OPEC crude production is likely to decline when prices fall to $60/bbl or lower, citing producer warnings about eroding shale output. Finally, at time of writing, the front-month Dec/Jan’26 and 6-month Dec/Jun’26 spreads are at $0.31/bbl and $0.24/bbl, respectively.

The Dec’25 Brent futures contract fell early this afternoon, from $63.85/bbl at 12:00 BST to $63.10/bbl at 14:45 BST before recovering to $63.44 at 18:00 BST (time of writing). In the news, Reuters has estimated that Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries led to a 17.1% m/m decrease in September seaborne shipments. By sea, Russia exported 55.6mb of fuels in September, with ports in the Baltic, Black, and Azov Seas decreasing between 15-23% in shipments. Despite disruptions, OPEC monthly data has shown that Russian oil production increased by 148kb/d from August, reaching 9.3mb/d in September. Related, the October OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report has projected global oil supply in 2026 to closely mirror demand, as the wider organisation increases production. It has also maintained its forecast for a rise of 1.3mb/d in global oil demand for 2025. Elsewhere, Algerian state-owned oil and gas firm Sonatrach has made a $5.4bn exploration and production deal with Midad Energy, a Saudi Arabian firm. The deal is a 30-year contract allowing for operations in the Illizi Basin in eastern Algeria; agreements between Sonatrach, Exxon, and Chevron are on the horizon to invest their resources in the region. In other news, Chief Executive Amin Nasser has said that Saudi Aramco can maintain crude oil production at a rate of 12mb/d for a year without additional costs. Finally, at time of writing, the front month Dec/Jan’26 and 6-month Dec/Jun’26 spreads are at $0.38/bbl and $0.52/bbl, respectively.

The Dec’25 Brent futures contract dipped this afternoon, to $63.29/bbl at 14:20 BST before finding support to reach $64.16 at 16:00 BST. Prices then softened to $63.11/bbl at 17:00 BST (time of writing). In the news, US President Trump via Truth Social has threatened additional tariffs on Chinese products following China’s move to tighten export controls on rare earth metals. In Russia, Reuters reported that oil exports from Russia’s western ports are expected to remain near September’s record highs, amid increased refinery activity. October’s export estimates are anticipated to fall around 200kb/d, to 2.3mb/d. Elsewhere, Hungary’s Foreign Minister Szijjarto has said that Hungarian oil company MOL will increase deliveries to Serbia, following US sanctions to the NIS earlier this week. The increase will not fully cover the cut of shipments from Croatia, though details have not yet been released. In China, Reuters reported that recent US sanctions on Iranian oil exports have disrupted operations at a Sinopec terminal that handles 20% of Chinese crude imports. In Greece, Energy Minister Stavros Papastavrou has stated that Greece is nearing an offshore oil and gas exploration contract with Chevron and Helleniq Energy; they hope to make a deal by the end of 2025. In other news, Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro has proposed granting US companies access to Venezuela’s oil and gold projects to appease the Trump Administration and prevent conflict. Finally, the front month Dec/Jan’26 and 6-month Dec/Jun’26 spreads are at $0.41/bbl and $0.64/bbl, respectively.

The Dec’25 Brent futures contract rose this afternoon, reaching $66.45/bbl at 14:00 BST before softening to $65.61/bbl at 17:30 BST (time of writing). In the news, local Russian media has reported that drones allegedly attacked an oil depot in Russia’s Rostov Oblast. Confirmation of the drones’ origin have yet to been reached. Elsewhere, British Petroleum (BP) has announced the launch of its sixth major oil and gas project of 2025 in the Murlach field of the UK North Sea. This project will add a peak net production of roughly 15kb/d to BP’s ETAP in central North Sea and aims to help BP reach target production of an additional 250kb/d by the end of 2027. In India, Reuters have reported that the state-run Bharat Petroleum Corp will invest roughly $11bn into a new 180-240kb/d refinery in Andhra Pradesh. According to a state government order, 6k acres have been allocated and have asked that commercial operations begin by January 2029. In other news, Taiwan and India have been identified through LSEG data as the main destinations for Russian sea-transported naphtha exports in August. Finally, at time of writing, the front month Dec/Jan’26 and 6-month Dec/Jun’26 spreads are at $0.51/bbl and $1.01/bbl, respectively.