Our latest energy derivatives stories across the World.
See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
This report reviews the key data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report.
This report aims to provide a position index for energy futures between -50 and 50, with 0 as the neutral position. The full methodology is at the back of the report. When the position index is at the extremes, above 40 or below -40, the market is overstretched relative to its average position in the previous 3-year rolling window. As such, it is ripe for mean reversion. Consequently, when the index is high, deleveraging will follow, having a negative impact on price, while when the index is low, we expect accumulation that will push the price higher.
Looking at Flux Insight’s CTA positioning for the week ending 15 Dec, CTA net positioning saw a downtrend deeper into negative territory for both crude and the products. Overall net positioning fell from close to -86k lots on 08 Dec to -142.0k lots on 15 Dec. This shows a consistent downtrend for the combined contracts, with net positioning around flat in mid-November. CTA positioning in Brent and WTI is at its lowest level since late October. RBOB remains at the lowest net position, at -37.6k lots, but the drop across the barrel is clear, with a selling momentum evident from CTAs.
In the week ending 12 December, Refinery Margins fell across all regions: Asian M1 Margins down to $10.61/bbl (-$0.16/bbl w/w), European M1 Margins down to $7.66/bbl (-$1.04/bbl w/w), and US Margins down to $13.44/bbl (-$1.29/bbl w/w).
Asian margins were driven down by Sing Gasoil cracks, which fell by -$0.72/bbl w/w. The 380 Crack also fell on the week by -$0.33/bbl. Dubai Cracks however saw some strength with MOPJ Dubai Cracks rising by +$0.82/bbl, and 92 Dubai Cracks rose by +$1.21/bbl. w/w.
In Europe 3.5 Bgs crack were the biggest mover, falling by -$0.88/bbl w/w, while GO Cracks also weakened, falling by -$0.65/bbl.
This report reviews weekly oil inventory data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report, Global Insights’ ARA Independent Storage and International Enterprise’s Singapore product storage
In this edition, we take a look at the Jan’26 Brent/Dubai.
This report reviews the key data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report
See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
This report aims to provide a position index for energy futures between -50 and 50, with 0 as the neutral position. The full methodology is at the back of the report. When the position index is at the extremes, above 40 or below -40, the market is overstretched relative to its average position in the previous 3-year rolling window. As such, it is ripe for mean reversion. Consequently, when the index is high, deleveraging will follow, having a negative impact on price, while when the index is low, we expect accumulation that will push the price higher.
Looking at Flux Insight’s CTA positioning for the week ending 08 Dec, CTA net positioning saw a contrast in performance between crude and the refined products. The former saw net gains over the week, rising towards a relatively neutral position from an index perspective. Meanwhile, Gasoil and Heating Oil extended their decline, though positioning is expected to bounce higher on 08 Dec. Finally, net positions in RBOB have bottomed out around -27k lots, where positioning is the most bearish out of the 5 contracts.
This report reviews weekly oil inventory data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report, Global Insights’ ARA Independent Storage and International Enterprise’s Singapore product storage
In the week ending 05 December, Refinery Margins fell across all regions: Asian M1 Margins down to $10.77/bbl (-$0.71/bbl w/w), European M1 Margins down to $8.70/bbl (-$0.73/bbl w/w), and US Margins down to $14.73/bbl (-$0.46/bbl w/w).
Asian margins were driven down by Sing Gasoil cracks, which fell by -$0.89/bbl w/w. The 380 Crack also fell on the week by -$0.52/bbl. Dubai Cracks also saw weakness, with Gasoil Dubai Cracks falling by -$3.42/bbl.
In Europe Gasoil crack was also the biggest mover, falling by -$1.42/bbl w/w, while 3.5 Barges Cracks also weakened, falling by -$1.16/bbl.
In this edition, we take a look at the Jan’26 Sing 0.5% crack.
This report reviews the key data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report
See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
This report aims to provide a position index for energy futures between -50 and 50, with 0 as the neutral position. The full methodology is at the back of the report. When the position index is at the extremes, above 40 or below -40, the market is overstretched relative to its average position in the previous 3-year rolling window. As such, it is ripe for mean reversion. Consequently, when the index is high, deleveraging will follow, having a negative impact on price, while when the index is low, we expect accumulation that will push the price higher.
Looking at Flux Insight’s CTA positioning for the week ending 01 Dec, CTA net positioning across all listed futures dropped w/w, particularly in middle distillates, which decreased d/d this week. In Brent, however, CTA positioning reached a low of -30k lots on 26 Nov before rising to -27k lots by 01 Dec. RBOB followed a similar trend, seeing a muted d/d increase between 28 Nov-01 Dec, reaching -26k lots on 01 Dec.
In the week ending 21 November, Refinery Margins contracted across all regions: Asian M1 Margins down to $12.64/bbl (-$0.42/bbl w/w), European M1 Margins down to $10.53/bbl (-$1.83/bbl w/w), and US Margins down to $16.51/bbl (+$1.95/bbl w/w).
Asian margins were driven down by Sing 92 cracks, which fell by -$2.70/bbl w/w. The 380 Brent Crack and the Sing 0.5 Crack also fell on the week by -$1.09/bbl and -$1.53/bbl respectively. Dubai Cracks also contracted, 92 Dubai Crack, fell by -$2.543/bbl and 380 Dubai Cracks fell by -$1.37/bbl.
In Europe EBOB crack was the biggest mover, falling by -$2.61/bbl w/w, while 3.5 Barges Cracks also weakened, falling by -$2.04/bbl.
This report reviews weekly oil inventory data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report, Global Insights’ ARA Independent Storage and International Enterprise’s Singapore product storage
In this edition, we take a look at the Jan’26 Gasoline East/West.
In this edition, we take a look at the Dec/Jan’26 FEI propane.
See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
This report reviews the key data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report
This report aims to provide a position index for energy futures between -50 and 50, with 0 as the neutral position. The full methodology is at the back of the report. When the position index is at the extremes, above 40 or below -40, the market is overstretched relative to its average position in the previous 3-year rolling window. As such, it is ripe for mean reversion. Consequently, when the index is high, deleveraging will follow, having a negative impact on price, while when the index is low, we expect accumulation that will push the price higher.
Looking at Flux Insight’s CTA positioning for the week ending 24 Nov, CTA positioning across all of the listed futures contract reached a peak and net dropped as there was a bearish shift across all products and crude contract. This was most clear in RBOB, and the middle distillate contracts. Heating oil reached a high of +28.5k lots on 19 Nov but dropped to +17.24k lots on 24 Nov, its lowest in 20 days. This pattern was similar in gasoil. RBOB was fairly flat around -4k lots 17-19 Nov before dropping to 21-day lows of -16.8k lots on 24 Nov.
In the week ending 21 November, Refinery Margins contracted across all regions: Asian M1 Margins down to $12.64/bbl (-$0.42/bbl w/w), European M1 Margins down to $10.53/bbl (-$1.83/bbl w/w), and US Margins down to $16.51/bbl (+$1.95/bbl w/w).
Asian margins were driven down by Sing 92 cracks, which fell by -$2.70/bbl w/w. The 380 Brent Crack and the Sing 0.5 Crack also fell on the week by -$1.09/bbl and -$1.53/bbl respectively. Dubai Cracks also contracted, 92 Dubai Crack, fell by -$2.543/bbl and 380 Dubai Cracks fell by -$1.37/bbl.
In Europe EBOB crack was the biggest mover, falling by -$2.61/bbl w/w, while 3.5 Barges Cracks also weakened, falling by -$2.04/bbl.
In this publication, we leverage Onyx’s proprietary Commitment of Traders data in order to identify changes in swap Open Interest and Positioning against Onyx with a view, in conjunction with long/short entry price levels and volatility analysis, to identify potential
In this edition, we take a look at the Dec’25 Naphtha E/W.
This report reviews weekly oil inventory data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report, Global Insights’ ARA Independent Storage and International Enterprise’s Singapore product storage
See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
This report reviews the key data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report
This report aims to provide a position index for energy futures between -50 and 50, with 0 as the neutral position. The full methodology is at the back of the report. When the position index is at the extremes, above 40 or below -40, the market is overstretched relative to its average position in the previous 3-year rolling window. As such, it is ripe for mean reversion. Consequently, when the index is high, deleveraging will follow, having a negative impact on price, while when the index is low, we expect accumulation that will push the price higher.
Someone keeps adding to the Christmas List. Or perhaps the Naughty List. The EU has added another 41 ships to its rapidly growing fleet of undesirable vessels. If you’re a keen ship tracker, remember to take the reported position of these ships with a healthy serving of scepticism, given their proclivity for evading AIS tracking.
The Brent bears continue to try to steal Christmas this week, sending prices below the hallowed $60/bbl marker. Prices closed below $60/bbl for the first time since February 2021 this week. We continue to see the M1 Brent fight to stay afloat here, standing at $59.97/bbl at the time of writing on 18 Dec. The doom and gloom of the oil glut has arrived, with reports emerging of around 20mb of Nigerian oil, plus several Angolan shipments, remaining unsold for December and January. This comes despite China doubling down on its purchases of Middle Eastern crude grades. Prices may find a floor from tensions between the US and Venezuela, with Washington threatening a blockade of tankers under sanctions entering and leaving Venezuela. The blockage could impact 600kb/d of Venezuelan exports, mainly to China. Moreover, the US has also readied new sanctions against Russia if Moscow rejects a peace deal with Ukraine, as per Bloomberg. Still, the lacklustre impact on oil prices reflects a larger risk-off market mood. The Grinch isn’t just in crude, with the S&P 500 down 1.7% over the past five days, though up d/d. I suppose that all that shines is really gold, which sits above the $4,300 handle. In global macro news, the US unemployment rate rose to 4.6% from 4.4% in October, above expectations, marking the highest level since 2021 and tying the bow on this bearish present. Still, the CME’s FedWatch tool assigns a 75% probability to no changes in the federal funds rate at the January 28 meeting – a metric we will continue to monitor as we inch closer to the meeting, as we (finally) receive more data on the US economy.
The Feb’26 Brent Futures contract rallied from $59.56/bbl at 12:11 GMT to $60.30/bbl at 16:35 GMT. Prices have since softened to $60.08 at 17:30 GMT (time of writing). In the news, BP has appointed Woodside Energy CEO Meg O’Neill as its next chief executive, marking the company’s first external leader in over a century and the first woman to head a top-five oil major. O’Neill, an Exxon veteran and current Woodside chief, will take over in April after Murray Auchincloss’s abrupt exit. Her appointment comes as BP pivots back to oil and gas, plans $20 Bn in divestments by 2027, and faces investor pressure to boost profitability after years of underperformance against rivals like Exxon. In other news, ADNOC secured $11 Bn in structured financing to monetize future gas output from its Hail and Ghasha project after Russia’s Lukoil exited due to sanctions. Partnering with Eni and PTTEP, the deal uses a pre-export finance model backed by future gas sales, marking the first greenfield gas-based structure of its kind. The funding advances ADNOC’s strategy to expand globally and develop low-carbon gas capacity targeting 1.8 bcf per day by decade’s end. West African crude sellers face challenges offloading up to 26 December-January cargoes from Nigeria and Angola amid a global oil surplus, pushing Brent below $60/bbl. Around 20 million barrels of Nigerian oil and 5-6 Angolan cargoes remain unsold, delaying February trading. Competition from cheaper Middle East, Russian, Argentine, and Brazilian supplies, displaces West African grades in China and India, exacerbated by Dangote refinery maintenance. Finally, the front-month Feb/Mar and 6-month Feb/Aug spreads are at $0.31/bbl and $0.47/bbl respectively.
Well, that didn’t last long… Exit Auchincloss and enter O’Neill, the fourth CEO in six years. The famed ‘fundamental reset’ has fundamentally failed as Murray Auchincloss is binned by BP after less than 2 years as CEO. He left in a hurry like some of his scandal-stained predecessors. In the interim, he is being replaced by Carol Howle, BP head of trading. Meg O’Neill will take over in April next year. O’Neill was an Exxon executive and, most recently, ran Woodside Energy.
Feb’26 Brent Futures reached $60.67/bbl at 01.34 GMT but is softer at $59.80/bbl at the time of writing at 10.15 GMT. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned that failure to reach an agreement on the use of frozen Russian assets would create significant difficulties for Ukraine, stating that he hopes to secure a positive outcome through talks with European leaders. French President Emmanuel Macron said he is confident the EU can find a compromise on funding for Ukraine, stressing that European leaders are committed to delivering a financing package and maintaining clear support for Ukraine’s war effort and a durable peace. Venezuela has requested that the United Nations Security Council convene a meeting to address what it describes as “ongoing US aggression,” according to a letter seen by Reuters. A UN diplomat cited by Reuters said the meeting is expected to be scheduled for next week. China has expressed support for Venezuela’s request to convene an emergency meeting of the United Nations Security Council, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun said. Speaking at a regular press briefing, Guo stated that Venezuela is entitled to independently pursue mutually beneficial cooperation with other countries, adding that the international community understands and supports Venezuela’s efforts to safeguard its legitimate rights and interests. Delegations from JSC KazTransOil and PJSC Transneft held a working meeting in Astana, where they discussed key areas of bilateral cooperation and signed an agreement covering oil transit through Russia for 2026. The two companies reaffirmed their long-standing partnership in oil transportation, which includes exporting oil via Russia to the ports of Novorossiysk and Ust-Luga, as well as to the Russia–Belarus border for onward delivery to the EU, and transiting Russian oil through Kazakhstan to supply Kazakh refineries. Finally, the front-month (Feb/Mar) and 6-month (Feb/Aug) Brent futures spreads are at $0.27/bbl and $0.29/bbl, respectively.
While equities weaken (S&P500 -1.2%, Nasdaq -1.9%), precious metals continue their surge, platinum up another 3.5% today (+17.1% in 6 days), silver +4% yesterday, and a friendly reminder, gold is a mere 2.8% of investors AUM. Smart money continues to rotate out of crowded AI trades: Oracle -5.4% as Blue Owl Capital decides to walk away from a $10 bn data centre deal with them. Oracle is now down 48% from its peak, CoreWeave -65%, OKLO -61%, IONQ -46%, Applied Digital -45%…..
As legendary investor Howard Marks puts it bluntly: “When you buy the S&P 500 at a 23x P/E, your 10-yr annualized return has always fallen between +2% and –2%, IN EVERY CASE, EVERY CASE.” Today the market sits at a 25x P/E. Add inflation… and your “returns” are negative.
Michael Burry was out overnight highlighting that household stock wealth being higher than real estate wealth has only happened in the late 60s and late 90s, the last two times the ensuing bear market lasted years. To add to concerns margin debt increased +42% in the past 7 months as investors go ‘all-in’. This only happened 5 times before, and the S&P 500 was lower 1 year later every time.
U.S. large bankruptcies have hit 717 year-to-date, the highest level in 15 years.
UK inflation falls from 3.6% to 3.2% YoY (est 3.5%), while PPI rose to +1.1% (from +0.8% prior).
House price in Kensington fell 16.5% YoY in the run up to Rachel Reeves budget. Westminster -16.1%, Tower Hamlets 11.3%, Hammersmith & Fulham -7.5%. (ONS)
German IFO business climate falls from 88.0 to 87.6. Expectations also falls from 90.5 to 89.7.
New-home prices in China fell -2.4% YoY in November, marking a severe acceleration in declines. Secondary home prices plunged across all city tiers, with first-tier cities recording a -5.8% YoY drop, while second tier and third-tier cities fell -5.6% and -5.8%, respectively. China’s real estate market has been in a downturn since mid-2021. (Chart 2, LSEG DataStream, Sumanta Sen, Kobeissi Letter)
President Trump announces a “warrior dividend” which is a $1,776 stimulus check sent to 1,450,000 US soldiers….. He also said the new Fed chair will believe in lower interest rates by a lot. And………. Venezuela must return oil, land, other stolen assets
In 90 mins Bitcoin trades from 87.3k to 90.3k back to 86.3k. And if you believe no one is deliberately trying to trigger your stops in an unregulated market, Santa will be here in less than a week.
Key data today – US CPI (first reading in weeks as October report was cancelled). ECB meeting (expected unchanged), BOE MPC 25bp cut expected.
In the week ending 16 Dec, the M1 Brent futures contract fell from $62.48/bbl on 09 Dec to $58.86/bbl by the week’s close; prices initially began to slip amid ongoing Russia-Ukraine peace talks. Despite a brief rise in prices on 09 Dec, partly due to the US seizing a tanker off the Venezuelan coast, weak Chinese economic data and renewed concerns of an oversupplied oil market pushed prices below the $60/bbl handle.
The M1 RBOB swap crack extended its previous losses this week, falling from $13.82/bbl on 09 Dec to $12.18/bbl on 16 Dec. The M1 ICE gasoil crack similarly saw weakness as it declined from $25.43/bbl on 09 Dec to $22.58/bbl by the week’s close.
Following the “blockade” announced by The Donald, The Officials decided to peer through key Venezuelan shipping hubs. More specifically, we have expanded the Peering Eye capabilities to include Puerto Jose (Puerto La Cruz), Punto Fijo and Maracaibo.
Now $60 looks like a ceiling. Brent battled to get hold of the handle throughout today’s session, with short-lived success in the late London morning following the rumours of further US sanctions on Russia. But that didn’t last and a gradual grind through the afternoon had the price back down to $59.87/bbl by the European close.
The Feb’26 Brent futures contract has traded in the $59/bbl handle this afternoon, briefly breaking to $60.02/bbl at 14:00 GMT before settling to $59.84/bbl at 17:20 GMT (time of writing). In the news, the US has extended a waiver permitting oil exports from Russia’s Sakhalin-2 project until 18 June 2026, likely ensuring the continuation of LNG production from the project. The granted general license is crucial for US ally Japan, which imports roughly 9% of its LNG from Russia. In the UK, Britain has included Egypt’s Zohr gas field, which Russian oil giant Rosneft owns a 30% stake in, in its list of projects exempt from Russia sanctions. The license granted now allows for financial transactions and business operations linked to Zohr until October 2027; no official reason for the exemption was given. Elsewhere, worker strikes at Brazil’s Petrobras have reached all offshore oil platforms in the Campos basin. The state-run company has continued to reassure that, thus far, the strikes have had no impact on oil production. In other news, Venezuela’s PDVSA has restarted oil cargo shipments at its terminals after a cyberattack disrupted its centralised administrative systems. A company source revealed that the state-owned oil company identified a ransomware attack several days ago and reported that workers are now using manual records of deliveries to avoid more severe disruptions. In related news, at least two tankers loaded with Venezuelan oil byproducts, including methanol and petroleum coke, have left from Jose, the largest port in the OPEC country, according to ship tracking data and internal documents from PDVSA. Finally, the front-month Feb/Mar’26 and 6-month Feb/Aug’26 spreads are at $0.27/bbl and $0.29/bbl, respectively.
The propane swap market saw initial support this fortnight, although these gains were ultimately shed amid weaker crude….
Things are really on edge. Trump is bristling and squaring up against Maduro, designating his regime a “FOREIGN TERRORIST ORGANISATION” and announcing a “blockade” on all sanctioned oil tankers. The oil price didn’t like that and jumped back up to over $59 at the Asian open this morning, continuing to climb gradually to hit $59.63/bbl by the close. Many market sources, however, told The Officials they’re expecting little impact in the end, wondering how on earth the US hopes to enforce the blockade.
After closing below $60/bbl for the first time since early 2021, the Feb’26 Brent futures bounced higher on Tuesday morning and retraced above $60/bbl, as markets saw a bullish reaction to a headline stating new Russia sanctions being planned by the US if Putin rejects the peace deal. The headline boosted Brent by 50c, which traded at $60.21/bbl at 18:00 SGT (time of writing). In other news, Trump ordered on Tuesday a “blockade” of all sanctioned oil tankers entering and leaving Venezuela, in Washington’s latest move to increase pressure on the Maduro government, targeting its main source of revenue. Whilst US seizures and blockade threats have effectively halted most sanctioned Venezuelan oil shipping, Chevron continues to export under its US license, leaving it the lone major operator amid escalating pressure on the Venezuelan government. Ukrainian drone debris caused a brief fire at Russia’s Slavyansk oil refinery in the Krasnodar region overnight. India’s Russian oil imports remain resilient at over 1mb/d despite tighter US sanctions, as refiners continue buying deeply discounted crude via non-sanctioned entities and supply workarounds. Finally, the front-month (Feb/Mar) and 6-month (Feb/Aug) Brent futures spreads are at $0.30/bbl and $0.31/bbl respectively.
Double NFP day yesterday. October showed a drop of 105k, almost completely undoing September’s additions, and November saw a 64k rise. Federal government jobs keep falling, as workers taking Trump’s deferred buyouts leave the workforce. NFPs now showing consistently weaker monthly values than last few years. (Figure 1)
Further big downward revisions to August and September data too, totalling 33k less jobs added than previously reported. Concerningly, the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, from 4.4% in October and above expectations. That puts it at the highest since September 2021!
Fed’s Goolsbee says he expects strong growth in 2026, allowing for more cuts to Fed funds rate. OIS still only pricing 2 full cuts over the next 12 months with the first full cut priced only in June.
Even so, inflation expectations rising again and precious metals are reacting: silver got to a new intraday record high at $66.51/oz this morning, spot palladium reaches new record too, at $1,630.50/oz and gold near record too. Platinum in particular is surging, up at least 2%+ each session for the last 5 successive days – 4% today! Now more than doubled YTD. (Figure 2)
Equities look like they’re rolling over; the S&P 500 closed yesterday at 6,800, but only down 1.8% from record high in October. Big tech/AI names struggling like Oracle – down more than 45% from September record.
European flash PMIs for December were mixed: the UK surprisingly outperformed expectations despite poor labour market data (unemployment rate 5.1% is highest since May 2021!), Germany and broader Euro Zone continued to underperform. However, ZEW economic sentiment index for Germany was stronger than expected at 45.8, aided by the auto and export sectors.
Data today: MBA Mortgage data, Ifo business climate
The Feb’26 Brent futures contract has fallen below $61/bbl this afternoon, falling from $61.10/bbl at 13:10 GMT to $60.15/bbl at 16:45 GMT. Prices have since risen to $60.33/bbl at 17:00 GMT (time of writing). In the news, Reuters reported that Ukrainian drones have struck the Korchagin oil rig, a Russian oil platform in the Caspian Sea. According to the report, this attack marks the third strike on this production platform in a week. While details are not yet clear, production has reportedly been stopped. Elsewhere, LSEG data show that a Benin-flagged tanker, the Boltaris, transporting 300kb of Russian naphtha destined for Venezuela’s PDVSA, has turned back after the US seized a vessel carrying Venezuelan oil last week; the Boltaris is now headed for Europe. Further, other shipping data show that at least four super tankers scheduled to load crude in Venezuela are also turning back. In related news, PDVSA has reported that a cyberattack has forced the company’s administrative and operational systems to shut down, including its oil delivery system. In Europe, the EU have announced new sanctions on companies and individuals aiding Moscow in circumventing Western sanctions on oil exports. These bans prevent EU citizens from doing business with listed parties and include over 2,600 entities. The latest targets nine individuals and entities supporting Russia’s shadow oil tanker fleet, per the EU Council and Official Journal. In Brazil, a company statement by Petrobras claims that the firm has seen no impact on its oil output since planned worker strikes began today. According to the statement, labour talks are ongoing, and market supply is “guaranteed.” In other news, Russia is reportedly considering extending export limits on diesel and gasoline until February, but no final decision has been made, according to the spokesperson for Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak. The government stated that fuel supply remains balanced. Finally, at time of writing, the front-month Feb/Mar’26 and 6-month Feb/Aug’26 spreads are at $0.25/bbl and $0.28/bbl, respectively.
Brent futures has fallen below $60 intraday on 16 Dec (time of writing), and the bears are finally feeling vindicated….
A bloodbath! Brent at its lowest since February 2021, no Christmas truce on the cards, and contango is creeping… Putin said he’ll only agree to a pause in the fighting for Christmas if they reach a deal – and of course he’s being cagey, wanting to avoid a ceasefire that allows Ukraine to better prepare for war again. Meanwhile, European leaders seem to be changing their tune towards more pro-peace rhetoric. Even Merz said he feels closer to a ceasefire than at any time in the previous 4 years.
The leading headline in the Dubai market has been the entire Dubai spread structure falling into contango on 16 Dec (time of writing). Jan/Feb’26 Dubai dropped into the negatives, from 21c/bbl on 09 Dec to -7c/bbl on 16 Dec. With this, there has also been a flurry of spread selling in the January to April’26 region, with April to July’26 being comparatively better bid. Given the growing difference between the two curves, the front Brent/Dubai boxes have come into positive range this week, with Jan/Feb especially well bid, moving around +15c/bbl on 16 Dec; the rest of the box curve is trading around flat.
After a bout of weak interest in the front, we saw combined exchange-traded OI climbing again this week. Jan’26 Brent/Dubai OI rose from sub 61.0mb on 09 Dec to 65.6mb by 11 Dec, sitting just 12% below the 5-year maximum of 74.4mb. Flow-wise, 16 Dec has seen new OTC spread selling, as players appear to be scaling in on this new regime. The fresh interest in the contract seems to be largely from bulls, with net positioning against Onyx in the front Brent/Dubai rising from +1.6mb on 09 Dec to +2.6mb on 12 Dec. This has been spec buying, as trade houses flipped net positive and began adding to their length. Deferred Brent/Dubai has seen strong buying from refiners and majors, although there has been some Chinese selling in this contract due to cargo hedges.
There was an expectation that Brent/Dubai would see a correction due to continued Chinese hedging in Brent/Dubai and strong Asian demand, on account of robust Saudi allocations to Asia. There has, indeed, been speculative buying interest at relatively high levels, but this may be partially due to profit-taking flows. The deferred contracts have been relatively quiet this week, following last week’s strong quarterly buying. Finally, there has been some short covering into the year’s end this week.
In this podcast, our Onyx Commodities Head of Trading Desks discuss the latest trends and developments in the oil, gas, power and carbon markets in which Onyx Commodities trades. This episode was recorded on Tuesday, 16 December 2025, at 11:00 a.m. London time. Please listen to the end of this podcast for important disclaimers.
This communication is for informational purposes only and based on the information available at the time the podcast was recorded. This is not an offer to buy or sell, nor a solicitation, and no recommendations are implied. It does not consider your financial circumstances or objectives and may not be suitable for you. Copyright 2025, Onyx Capital Group – all rights reserved.
In the week ending 12 December 2025, exchange traded futures volumes showed mixed gains w/w across instruments in the first three tenors. Brent, WTI and Gasoil all posted strong gains with the April contracts standing out, as WTI saw a 40% elevation in volumes alongside Brents 34.5% increase. But Heating oil and RBOB both saw decreases across the strip
The Feb’26 Brent futures contract fell from $60.62/bbl at 19.30 GMT, dropping overnight to break below $60.00/bbl this morning at $59.50/bbl at 10.09 GMT (time of writing). China increased crude oil buying for storage last month, with a surplus of about 1.88 mb/d left after refining, according to Reuters’ Clyde Russell. Domestic production and imports both rose, while refiners processed 14.86 mb/d, up 3.9% year on year. China has been steadily building its oil inventories since March, with stockpiling averaging about 980 kb/d over the first 11 months of the year. Weak Chinese economic data added to market pressure, raising concerns that global demand may struggle to absorb the recent surge in supply, according to IG analyst Tony Sycamore. Factory output growth fell to a 15-month low, while retail sales expanded at their slowest pace since December 2022. Russia and Pakistan are discussing a potential oil-sector agreement covering exploration, production and refining, according to Pakistan’s Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb. Talks are being handled by both countries’ energy ministries and include possible upgrades to a Pakistani refinery with Russian company involvement. The European Union imposed new sanctions on oil traders and entities linked to Russia’s shadow shipping fleet, aiming to curb Moscow’s ability to bypass Western restrictions on crude exports. Those targeted include oil trader Murtaza Lakhani, individuals linked to Lukoil’s Dubai trading arm, and figures associated with Coral Energy, renamed 2Rivers Group, for facilitating Russian oil shipments. The measures ban EU citizens from doing business with the listed parties and are expected to expand to dozens more vessels, though Russia said the sanctions would be ineffective and harm EU economies. At the time of writing, the front-month Feb/Mar’26 and 6-month Feb/Aug’26 spreads are at $0.18/bbl and -$0.03/bbl, respectively.
A day of pain as whacking the flat price pinata gets out of hand! After days of relentless selling, Brent is finally under the key $60/bbl support. For the past 7 sessions, only one has closed higher than the previous close. There’s been a strong narrative of ample if not gigantic levels of floating storage following a raft of sanctions by the US and Europe. While this would normally result in the buyers being stressed, the key buyer for sanctioned barrels – China – saw the opportunity to hold back and pick up really cheap and distressed cargoes. This in turn put the pressure on Middle Eastern barrels who then didn’t have a home.
The M1 Brent futures contract has grinded lower over the week, with five lower closes over the past six sessions. On Monday, prices saw intraday lows of $60.12/bbl, closing at $60.39/bbl, the lowest close of the year since 5 May. The $60/bbl psychological support is absolutely critical, given the support it provided from 17-19 Oct, while Brent has not closed below this level since early 2021. If prices close below this, the year-to-date low of $58.39/bbl may come into view. On the upside, key resistance lies at the 50-day moving average of $63.28/bbl. If prices break above, then the upper Bollinger band at $64.50/bbl is the next barrier to break.
Indian inflation steadies somewhat, as WPI (wholesale) inflation dropped -0.32% y/y in November, showing a slower rate of deflation than in October and only half the expected fall. Fuel and food are pulling the measure down, while manufacturing inflation rose 1.33% – though that’s its slowest since Sep 2024. Indian rupee falls beyond 91 against USD, hitting all-time high of 91.0837. (Figure 1)
HSBC flash PMIs showed Indian manufacturing expanded at the slowest rate (55.7) in 2 years in December, continuing its rapid fall since October. Services outperforming with 59.1 expansion and a steadier trajectory than manufacturing.
US manufacturing continues to disappoint as well – the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index fell to -3.9 in December, far below expectations of 10.6, as shipments fell and inventories increased slightly. The prices paid index fell to its lowest since January yet optimism over future business conditions rose.
While rupee weakens, onshore yuan reached its strongest in 14 months aided by a stronger fix by the PBoC, near 7.04. (Figure 2)
Weakness across commodities and crypto: Brent below $60! (Figure 3) For the first time since May, Brent prices have fallen to under $60/bbl; Bitcoin drops to under $86k; gold finally softens after surge to $4,350/oz. Silver pulls back from record high on Friday, now trading just above $63/oz.
NFP data today includes both October and November data. Bloomberg Economics forecasts decrease in October followed by strong bounce back in November. No unemployment reading for October but half of November’s reference period was impacted by government shutdown.
Data today: NFPs, ZEW European sentiment, Japan trade data.
The Feb’26 Brent futures contract has fallen below $61/bbl this afternoon, falling from $61.10/bbl at 13:10 GMT to $60.15/bbl at 16:45 GMT. Prices have since risen to $60.33/bbl at 17:00 GMT (time of writing). In the news, Reuters reported that Ukrainian drones have struck the Korchagin oil rig, a Russian oil platform in the Caspian Sea. According to the report, this attack marks the third strike on this production platform in a week. While details are not yet clear, production has reportedly been stopped. Elsewhere, LSEG data show that a Benin-flagged tanker, the Boltaris, transporting 300kb of Russian naphtha destined for Venezuela’s PDVSA, has turned back after the US seized a vessel carrying Venezuelan oil last week; the Boltaris is now headed for Europe. Further, other shipping data show that at least four super tankers scheduled to load crude in Venezuela are also turning back. In related news, PDVSA has reported that a cyberattack has forced the company’s administrative and operational systems to shut down, including its oil delivery system. In Europe, the EU have announced new sanctions on companies and individuals aiding Moscow in circumventing Western sanctions on oil exports. These bans prevent EU citizens from doing business with listed parties and include over 2,600 entities. The latest targets nine individuals and entities supporting Russia’s shadow oil tanker fleet, per the EU Council and Official Journal. In Brazil, a company statement by Petrobras claims that the firm has seen no impact on its oil output since planned worker strikes began today. According to the statement, labour talks are ongoing, and market supply is “guaranteed.” In other news, Russia is reportedly considering extending export limits on diesel and gasoline until February, but no final decision has been made, according to the spokesperson for Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak. The government stated that fuel supply remains balanced. Finally, at time of writing, the front-month Feb/Mar’26 and 6-month Feb/Aug’26 spreads are at $0.25/bbl and $0.28/bbl, respectively.
Sub-$61! The lowest point since May is within touching distance! If you zoom out on the Brent flat price chart, you’ll spot the period of sideways movement from 21 November until 8 December but, in the last week of trading, we’ve been moving steadily downwards. Even so, the prompt structure recovered from its 19c low on Friday afternoon to reach today’s European close at 27c. But the market undeniably lacks conviction. “Everyone has been flip flopping both ways” said a trader
The gasoline complex has continued last week’s decline, coinciding with a 6.4mb build (+3% w/w) to US gasoline inventories for the week ending 05 December. The front RBOB swap crack has fallen from $13.41/bbl on 08 Dec to $12.89/bbl on 15 Dec.
The Jan’26 EBOB crack eased from the week’s high of $13.49/bbl on 08 Dec to $12.07/bbl on 15 Dec. Net positioning against Onyx fell dramatically as trade houses and refiners proved to be strong sellers of the contract this week. Meanwhile, the Jan’26 transatlantic arb (RBOB vs EBOB swaps) fell from 1.70c/gal on 08 Dec to 0.10c/gal on 15 Dec. Refiners and trade houses cut shorts as majors added fresh length; as a result, net positioning flipped net positive this week. Technically, in the specific Jan’26 EBOB crack, prices have broken below a triangle formed in mid-November. However, only a close below this level (at $12.25/bbl) will flip it from support to resistance. Meanwhile, in the M1 crack, further support lies at $11.95/bbl, which acted as support in Mar, Apr, and Sep.
Another week brings another selection of new trade ideas from Flux Insights. This week, we look at trades in Fuel Oil, Gasoline and Crude Oil swaps. Our weekly Alpha report presents speculative and hedging trades based on technical analysis and data-driven tradecraft methods on Flux Commitment of Traders (COT) and Financials data.
European and Asian naphtha markets remain divergent, with flows and positioning driving price action. The Jan’26 NWE naphtha crack continues to hover around -$4.30 to -$4.50/bbl, but elevated open interest near five-year highs and persistent sell-side flows point to downside risk. In Asia, the Jan’26 MOPJ crack remains relatively resilient despite recent pullbacks, supported by strong open interest and refiners turning net lon
It’s still very much a one-man-show in Dubai, as Glencore continues as the sole significant buyside presence, juggling lifting offers and placing its own bids. Enough to get another couple of convergences – today both Upper Zakum from Equinor and Exxon. It’s still Glencore alone to have collected cargoes this month so far, having accumulated 14 convergences so far, of which all but one have been Upper Zakums – the other was an Al Shaheen. As well as declaring their convergences today, Exxon and Equinor are the dominant sellers, having nominated 4 cargoes each. Hengli is just one behind, while Shell has sold one and Phillips just the one.
The Feb’26 Brent futures contract eased this morning from $61.48/bbl at 06:30 GMT to $61.14/bbl at 10:00 GMT (time of writing). In the news, official data show that Chinese refiners processed 14.9mb/d of crude oil in November, a slight decrease m/m partly due to maintenance. However, independent refiners have also reportedly boosted their runs after new crude import quotas were issued, which is likely to maintain strong output rates in December. Elsewhere, Reuters reported that oil tanker rates are expected to stay high in the first half of 2026 due to an ageing global fleet and an increasing number of vessels affected by Western sanctions. Due to high demand by OPEC and its allies, the cost of shipping oil in recent weeks has risen by roughly $130k per day for VLCCs. Next year, VLCC fleet utilisation is projected to increase to 92%, reaching the highest level since 2019, up from 89.5% in 2025. In other news, Kpler data suggests that Venezuelan crude exports are set to fall to 702kb/d in December, the lowest level since May. This decrease follows the US’s intensified efforts to restrict Venezuelan oil shipments aboard the dark fleet. In South Korea, petrochemical company DL Chemical has proposed shutting down Yeochun NCC Co.’s No. 1 plant (capacity 900kt) under a restructuring plan. In macro, the BOE and BOJ are both anticipated to announce rate hikes this week; meanwhile, the ECB, Riksbank, and Norway’s Norges Bank are expected to keep interest rates on hold. Finally, at the time of writing, the front-month Feb/Mar’26 and 6-month Feb/Aug’26 spreads are at $0.29/bbl and $0.52/bbl, respectively.
View: Cautiously Bearish Target Price: $60-62/bb Last week, the Feb’26 Brent crude futures closed lower, falling from $63/bbl at the start of the week as prices test the $61/bbl support level. For the past two months, Brent has been slowly,
U.S. 30-year yield rallies 5bp as global debt concerns grow again and U.S. 2s10s curve continues to steepen, the front held down by weak data and Trump’s imminent dovish Fed pick, while the back end continues to steepen on global debt worries and concerns about Fed independence. These trades are derailing the equity uptrend (Nasdaq -1.9%), meanwhile Platinum continues its breakout, and gold closes in on new all-time highs. This is a big week for data (US payrolls, CPI, UK employment & CPI, & flash PMIs) and central bank meetings (BOE & BOJ)
China retail sales continue to disappoint +1.3% (estimated +2.9%). Property investment is down further with -15.9%YoY YTD and worryingly, fixed asset investment is down -2.6%.
BOJ IS SAID TO START SELLING ETF HOLDINGS AS EARLY AS JANUARY
TESLA U.S. SALES DROP TO NEARLY 3-YEAR LOW IN NOVEMBER DESPITE LAUNCH OF CHEAPER MODEL Y AND MODEL 3 – COX DATA
The Santa Claus Rally (last 5 trading days of December, and first 2 of January) has averaged 1.1% rally since 1950. (Chart 1, Dow Jones Market Data).
Oracle stock falls over -7% on reports that some of their data centres for OpenAI have been delayed from 2027 to 2028.(Chart 2, Bloomberg)
Broadcom down 11.4%%.
Howard Marks at Oaktree: “I’m concerned that a small number of highly educated multi billionaires living on the coasts will be viewed as having created technology that puts millions out of work” “This promises even more social and political division than we have now, making the world ripe for populist demagoguery.”
Barron’s 2026 stock picks move from tech into defensives. (Chart 3, Barrons)
U.S. LAYOFFS ARE ON TRACK TO EXCEED GREAT FINANCIAL CRISIS LEVELS: U.S. EMPLOYERS ANNOUNCED 1,170,821 JOB CUTS IN 2025, THE SECOND-HIGHEST TOTAL IN 16 YEARS
Data this week
Tuesday – UK employment, US payrolls & retail sales, EZ flash PMIs
Wednesday – UK & EZ CPI
Thursday – BOE, ECB, rate decisions, US CPI, Japan CPI
Friday – BOJ rate decision, UK retail sales, UniMich consumer sentiment
In the week ending 09 Dec, the Feb’26 ICE Brent futures saw a net drop from $62.45/bbl on 02 Dec to $63.75/bbl on 05 Dec to $61.94/bbl on 09 Dec. This continues the overarching pattern of crude being weak, but the strength of the trend itself being weak. The main drivers in the market continue to be the lack of a clear path to a conclusion between Ukraine and Russia, as well as escalating threats to Venezuela from the US. EIA crude oil stocks saw a relatively small 574kb build in the week to 28 Nov, with 457kb withdrawn from Cushing.
Dear reader enjoy the weekly version of The Officials Peering Eye, where we cover activity on key shipping hubs around the world, expanding to Suez Canal, Panama Canal, Rotterdam, Al Zour refinery, Zirku, Novorossiysk and Odessa ports, as well as the usual information and graphics about Indian ports.
