Our latest energy derivatives stories across the World.
This report reviews weekly oil inventory data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report, Global Insights’ ARA Independent Storage and International Enterprise’s Singapore product storage
In this edition, we take a look at the Jan’26 Brent/Dubai.
This report reviews the key data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report
See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
This report aims to provide a position index for energy futures between -50 and 50, with 0 as the neutral position. The full methodology is at the back of the report. When the position index is at the extremes, above 40 or below -40, the market is overstretched relative to its average position in the previous 3-year rolling window. As such, it is ripe for mean reversion. Consequently, when the index is high, deleveraging will follow, having a negative impact on price, while when the index is low, we expect accumulation that will push the price higher.
Looking at Flux Insight’s CTA positioning for the week ending 08 Dec, CTA net positioning saw a contrast in performance between crude and the refined products. The former saw net gains over the week, rising towards a relatively neutral position from an index perspective. Meanwhile, Gasoil and Heating Oil extended their decline, though positioning is expected to bounce higher on 08 Dec. Finally, net positions in RBOB have bottomed out around -27k lots, where positioning is the most bearish out of the 5 contracts.
This report reviews weekly oil inventory data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report, Global Insights’ ARA Independent Storage and International Enterprise’s Singapore product storage
In the week ending 05 December, Refinery Margins fell across all regions: Asian M1 Margins down to $10.77/bbl (-$0.71/bbl w/w), European M1 Margins down to $8.70/bbl (-$0.73/bbl w/w), and US Margins down to $14.73/bbl (-$0.46/bbl w/w).
Asian margins were driven down by Sing Gasoil cracks, which fell by -$0.89/bbl w/w. The 380 Crack also fell on the week by -$0.52/bbl. Dubai Cracks also saw weakness, with Gasoil Dubai Cracks falling by -$3.42/bbl.
In Europe Gasoil crack was also the biggest mover, falling by -$1.42/bbl w/w, while 3.5 Barges Cracks also weakened, falling by -$1.16/bbl.
In this edition, we take a look at the Jan’26 Sing 0.5% crack.
This report reviews the key data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report
See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
This report aims to provide a position index for energy futures between -50 and 50, with 0 as the neutral position. The full methodology is at the back of the report. When the position index is at the extremes, above 40 or below -40, the market is overstretched relative to its average position in the previous 3-year rolling window. As such, it is ripe for mean reversion. Consequently, when the index is high, deleveraging will follow, having a negative impact on price, while when the index is low, we expect accumulation that will push the price higher.
Looking at Flux Insight’s CTA positioning for the week ending 01 Dec, CTA net positioning across all listed futures dropped w/w, particularly in middle distillates, which decreased d/d this week. In Brent, however, CTA positioning reached a low of -30k lots on 26 Nov before rising to -27k lots by 01 Dec. RBOB followed a similar trend, seeing a muted d/d increase between 28 Nov-01 Dec, reaching -26k lots on 01 Dec.
In the week ending 21 November, Refinery Margins contracted across all regions: Asian M1 Margins down to $12.64/bbl (-$0.42/bbl w/w), European M1 Margins down to $10.53/bbl (-$1.83/bbl w/w), and US Margins down to $16.51/bbl (+$1.95/bbl w/w).
Asian margins were driven down by Sing 92 cracks, which fell by -$2.70/bbl w/w. The 380 Brent Crack and the Sing 0.5 Crack also fell on the week by -$1.09/bbl and -$1.53/bbl respectively. Dubai Cracks also contracted, 92 Dubai Crack, fell by -$2.543/bbl and 380 Dubai Cracks fell by -$1.37/bbl.
In Europe EBOB crack was the biggest mover, falling by -$2.61/bbl w/w, while 3.5 Barges Cracks also weakened, falling by -$2.04/bbl.
This report reviews weekly oil inventory data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report, Global Insights’ ARA Independent Storage and International Enterprise’s Singapore product storage
In this edition, we take a look at the Jan’26 Gasoline East/West.
In this edition, we take a look at the Dec/Jan’26 FEI propane.
See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
This report reviews the key data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report
This report aims to provide a position index for energy futures between -50 and 50, with 0 as the neutral position. The full methodology is at the back of the report. When the position index is at the extremes, above 40 or below -40, the market is overstretched relative to its average position in the previous 3-year rolling window. As such, it is ripe for mean reversion. Consequently, when the index is high, deleveraging will follow, having a negative impact on price, while when the index is low, we expect accumulation that will push the price higher.
Looking at Flux Insight’s CTA positioning for the week ending 24 Nov, CTA positioning across all of the listed futures contract reached a peak and net dropped as there was a bearish shift across all products and crude contract. This was most clear in RBOB, and the middle distillate contracts. Heating oil reached a high of +28.5k lots on 19 Nov but dropped to +17.24k lots on 24 Nov, its lowest in 20 days. This pattern was similar in gasoil. RBOB was fairly flat around -4k lots 17-19 Nov before dropping to 21-day lows of -16.8k lots on 24 Nov.
In the week ending 21 November, Refinery Margins contracted across all regions: Asian M1 Margins down to $12.64/bbl (-$0.42/bbl w/w), European M1 Margins down to $10.53/bbl (-$1.83/bbl w/w), and US Margins down to $16.51/bbl (+$1.95/bbl w/w).
Asian margins were driven down by Sing 92 cracks, which fell by -$2.70/bbl w/w. The 380 Brent Crack and the Sing 0.5 Crack also fell on the week by -$1.09/bbl and -$1.53/bbl respectively. Dubai Cracks also contracted, 92 Dubai Crack, fell by -$2.543/bbl and 380 Dubai Cracks fell by -$1.37/bbl.
In Europe EBOB crack was the biggest mover, falling by -$2.61/bbl w/w, while 3.5 Barges Cracks also weakened, falling by -$2.04/bbl.
In this publication, we leverage Onyx’s proprietary Commitment of Traders data in order to identify changes in swap Open Interest and Positioning against Onyx with a view, in conjunction with long/short entry price levels and volatility analysis, to identify potential
In this edition, we take a look at the Dec’25 Naphtha E/W.
This report reviews weekly oil inventory data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report, Global Insights’ ARA Independent Storage and International Enterprise’s Singapore product storage
See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
This report reviews the key data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report
This report aims to provide a position index for energy futures between -50 and 50, with 0 as the neutral position. The full methodology is at the back of the report. When the position index is at the extremes, above 40 or below -40, the market is overstretched relative to its average position in the previous 3-year rolling window. As such, it is ripe for mean reversion. Consequently, when the index is high, deleveraging will follow, having a negative impact on price, while when the index is low, we expect accumulation that will push the price higher.
In the week ending 14 November, Refinery Margins continued to rise across all regions: Asian M1 Margins up to $14.15/bbl (+$0.94/bbl w/w), European M1 Margins up to $12.36/bbl (+$0.59/bbl w/w), and US Margins up to $18.46/bbl (+$1.08/bbl w/w). Asian margins were driven up by Sing 92 cracks, which increased by +$0.45/bbl w/w. The 380 Brent Crack was the biggest mover, decreasing by -$1.16/bbl w/w, the 92 Brent Crack was close, increasing by +$0.94/bbl w/w.In Europe, the EBOB Brent crack was the biggest mover, increasing by +$1.82/bbl w/w.
This report reviews weekly oil inventory data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report, Global Insights’ ARA Independent Storage and International Enterprise’s Singapore product storage
In this edition, we take a look at the Dec’25 Dated/Brent (DFL).
In this edition, we take a look at the Dec’25 0.5% East/West.
This report reviews the key data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Dear reader enjoy the weekly version of The Officials Peering Eye, where we cover activity on key shipping hubs around the world, expanding to Suez Canal, Panama Canal, Rotterdam, Al Zour refinery, Zirku, Novorossiysk and Odessa ports, as well as the usual information and graphics about Indian ports.
While Trump is trying to drill in Alaska, flat price is trying to drill through the $61 floor. But it’s proving resilient so far, as Brent keeps clinging on. It was the same old cast in the North Sea window, as Totsa, Trafi and Glencore came back to bid Midland again.
The Feb’26 Brent Futures contract fell from $61.31/bbl at 13:30 GMT to $60.85/bbl at 15:59 GMT. Prices then rallied to $61.35/bbl at 17:47 GMT (time of writing). In the news, Russian state oil and gas revenue is projected to drop nearly 50% y/y in December to $5.17 Bn, driven by lower crude prices and a stronger rouble. This key budget source, funding a quarter of federal spending amid Ukraine war costs, will fall 23% for the full year to ~$105 Bn, missing the ~$108Bn forecast. The drop in revenues reflect Western efforts to squeeze Russia’s oil exports. In other news, Iran will hike gasoline prices for heavy users starting Saturday, charging 50,000 rials/L (4c/L) for consumption over 160L monthly, while lighter users retain subsidized tiers up to 60 L at 15,000 rials (~1c) and 100 L at 30,000 (~2c). This targets inefficiencies like smuggling, outdated vehicles, and summer demand spikes that push daily needs to 140 million litres against 110 million in production. Officials cite fiscal burdens and irrational subsidies amid economic woes from sanctions, avoiding broad hikes to prevent 2019-style protests. An explosion hit Nigeria’s Escravos-Lagos natural gas pipeline on December 10 near Delta State communities, causing a pressure drop and halting supply to industrial users and power plants, NNPC confirmed. The cause remains under investigation, with emergency teams prioritizing community safety and environmental protection. The incident follows a fresh NNPC-Heirs Energies deal to capture flared gas from OML 17 for power, LPG, and CNG uses. Finally, the front-month Feb/Mar and 6-month Feb/Aug spreads are at $0.28/bbl and $0.55/bbl respectively.
Happy Friday, folks! Hope you are enjoying the activity in the Dubai window, because in swaps the market is “dead today” according to a Dubai trader. But one person is still playing the game, at least! Glencore’s keeping the activity in partials hot, grabbing every single one of the 70 trades in today’s window. Unlike previous sessions, though, most (36) were sold by Equinor, with Hengli coming second, selling only 10 times, while Exxon, Shell, Trafi, BP, Reliance, Sinochem and Unipec
were all there but selling in single digits really. We saw three more convergences this morning as Equinor, Hengli and Shell all declared an Upper Zakum cargo each to Glencore. Meanwhile, the physical premium edged up to 50c, but the running monthly average is now at 66c, already 23c lower than November’s trading average.
The Feb’26 Brent futures is trading higher than levels from Thursday afternoon, when prices briefly fell below $61/bbl. Prices touched highs of $61.80/bbl on Friday morning before falling by 50c since 17:00 SGT to $61.30/bbl by 17:45 SGT (time of writing). Prices have been seeing lower lows since the end of October, reinforcing the short term bearish trend. In the news, a reported overnight drone attack may have struck Russia’s 300kb/d Slavneft-YANOS refinery in Yaroslavl, though the extent of damage and impact on operations remains unclear. US officials say the seizure of a Venezuelan oil tanker could be followed by further confiscations, signalling a broader effort to choke off oil revenues and intensify pressure on Nicolás Maduro’s government. Indeed, more than 30 OFAC-sanctioned tankers remain in Venezuelan waters and within reach of US naval forces. Finally, the front-month (Feb/Mar) and 6-month (Feb/Aug) Brent futures spreads are at $0.22/bbl and $0.36/bbl respectively.
Going into Christmas, it’s all quiet in the oil market as we recycle through the usual market narratives while Brent slowly ticks lower, falling below $62/bbl by 11 Dec (time of writing). The 50-day moving average is proving to be too hot to handle, as Brent has attempted, but failed to break through that line four times in the past two months, reinforcing it as a major barrier for the bulls. As Brent grinds lower, it may look to retest the $60/bbl support again, which firmly held up from 17-21 Oct. For all the talk about the crude glut, the physical market has been resilient, with prompt Dated Brent weeks in a comfortable backwardation. As a bellwether of the Dated market, Total has been on a buying spree in the physical, with the demand picture into Christmas looking robust. Refinery demand in January structure is giving greater confidence that the barrels can clear, while the shorts roll their positions further back, from January into February and March. There is analyst consensus about the glut, but its actual pricing in will be a more complicated matter. Reigniting the America and Oil memes, the seizure of an oil tanker off the coast of Venezuela by the US marked another escalation in its pressure campaign against the Maduro government. Describing the VLCC’s capture, Trump said it was “very large, the largest one ever seized actually”, and “I assume we’re going to keep the oil”. The headline triggered a $1 spike in Brent into Wednesday’s close, but the rally quickly faded by Thursday morning. In other news, the FOMC’s 25bps rate cut yesterday was to the shock of absolutely no one. The real tea is everything around the meeting: growing dissent within the Fed, the direction of policy into 2026, and the question of Jerome Powell’s successor. Plenty of drama here; maybe Warner Bros Netflix Paramount is already drafting a script.
Suddenly, democracy and voting are back in vogue! Zelenskyy conceded to the idea that Donbas (and the rest of Ukraine) could vote on its future, after agreeing to hold elections if there are security guarantees. But even that concession did little to spur a flat price reaction and it simply continued to inch downwards, reaching the European close at $60.95bbl – the lowest since late October.
The Feb’26 Brent Futures Contract fell from $61.56/bbl at 13:22 GMT to $60.85/bbl at 16:30 GMT. Prices have since recovered slightly to $61.04/bbl at 17:20 GMT. In the news, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has raised the possibility of a referendum or elections to let Ukrainians decide on any territorial concessions in eastern Donbas, under rising US pressure to accept a Trump administration peace plan. Russia is demanding Ukraine withdraw forces from all of Donbas, including areas it has failed to capture, but Zelenskiy insists Kyiv will not simply surrender territory. In other news, OPEC’s latest report projects that global oil supply and demand will be nearly balanced in 2026, unlike the IEA which predicted a 3 mb/d hike. OPEC+ production reached 43.06 mb/d in November, just 60 kb/d above expected 2026 demand levels. The group plans to pause output increases in early 2026 amid oversupply fears. Russia’s Lukoil is leaning toward US bank Xtellus Partners’ bid for its $22Bn global assets because it offers a cashless swap, returning US-held Lukoil securities to the company. The US Treasury extended Lukoil’s deadline to sell by January 17 after sanctioning it and Rosneft to pressure Moscow over Ukraine. Xtellus’ proposal is more complex, requiring disclosure of share ownership and potential approval from President Putin due to Russia’s share-trading ban. Finally, the front-month Feb/Mar’26 and 6-month Feb/Aug’26 spreads are at $0.24/bbl and $0.42/bbl respectively.
Shiver our timbers! The late American session had Brent climbing all the way to $62.70 after the Venezuelan tanker hijacking. But the Asians don’t care and it fell steadily through their trading this morning, back to $61.60/bbl by the close. As one Chinese source said, “Venezuelan just happens to be cheap”. It’s not a coincidence that Venezuelan is so cheap, as only China touches it!
The HSFO market has continued to be under pressure. The Jan’26 3.5% barges crack, falling from -$6.50/bbl on 28 Nov to -$9.20/bbl on 10 Dec. The price is testing the support reached in January, but if it passes this, we could expect some support to come at the psychological -$10.00/bbl level, like in Nov’24. Open interest has seen a strong increase of over 40% in the past two weeks, to 18.37mb on 08 Dec. At this level, open interest sits roughly 30% above the 5-year average and is nearing the 5-year maximum of 22.78mb. There has then been a reassertion of short positions from refiners and trade houses, with trade houses selling around 350kb of the contract from 04-09 Dec. The -DMI line sits well above the +DMI line. The ADX stands at 41, indicating a strong bearish trend in this market. Still, the MACD histogram is dropping to very low heights; it seems the bearish momentum is very weak. The short-term stochastic oscillator exhibited a bullish crossover in oversold territory, indicating a potential correction within an overall bearish trend.
The Jan’26 380 crack initially fell from -$7.25/bbl on 28 Nov to -$8.40/bbl on 04 Dec, but the contract has been rangebound in December, failing to break above -$7.50/mt or below -$8.40/mt, at -$8.25/mt on 11 Dec at the time of writing. Open interest was softer at the beginning of the month, dropping from 13.50mb on 01 Dec to 11.72mb on 02 Dec before it increased again to 12.81mb on 08 Dec. These OI levels are extremely high, above the previous all-time high and over 175% higher than the 5-year average. Given increased selling flows and 90-day longs becoming more out of the money as prices decline, but the open interest strength is a concern, with a market split of 45:55 long:short it is at risk of saturation. We are cautiously bearish from here with increased selling flows and 90-day longs becoming more out of the money as prices decline.
Feb’26 Brent futures dropped from $62.37/bbl at 20.34 GMT to $61.33/bbl at 10.08 GMT (time of writing). President Donald Trump announced that US forces have seized a large oil tanker off Venezuela’s coast, signalling a significant escalation in Washington’s pressure on Nicolás Maduro’s government. Trump described it as the largest tanker ever captured. Attorney General Pam Bondi, releasing footage of the operation, said the vessel was carrying sanctioned crude from Venezuela and Iran. Venezuela condemned the move as “international piracy,” and President Maduro reiterated that the country would never become an “oil colony.” Bloomberg reported that Ukraine has broadened its attacks on Russian energy assets by striking Lukoil PJSC’s Filanovsky oil field in the Caspian Sea. A source reports that Ukrainian long-range drones have struck the offshore platform at least four times, resulting in the shutdown of production from more than 20 wells. The IEA has reduced its global oil supply growth forecast for 2025 by 100 kb/d. It now expects output to rise by 3 mb/d, reaching 106.2 mb/d. The IEA also trimmed its 2026 outlook by the same amount, projecting supply to grow by 2.4 mb/d to 108.6 mb/d. Equinor and its partners plan to invest $400 million to increase output from the Johan Castberg oil field in the Barents Sea, aiming to prolong peak production at the company’s newest hub. The newly announced development of the Isflak discovery is expected to add about 46mb, with production slated to begin in late 2028. According to Senior Vice President Grete Birgitte Haaland, similar nearby discoveries could yield several hundred million additional recoverable barrels. Finally, at time of writing, the front-month Feb/Mar’26 and 6-month Feb/Aug’26 spreads are at $0.29/bbl and $0.52/bbl, respectively.
In the week ending 09 Dec, the M1 Brent futures contract initially rose from $62.44/bbl on 02 Dec to the week’s high of $64.09/bbl on 05 Dec. Levels were supported early in the week by failed peace talks between the US and Russia, as Russian President Vladimir Putin declared that the nation was “ready” for war with Europe, should one break out. From here, prices fell to $62.02/bbl by the week’s close, in part due to Iraq restoring oil operations at its West Qurna-2 oilfield (capacity 460kb/d), following an earlier leak on an export pipeline. The M1 RBOB swap crack weakened in the week ending 09 Dec, from $15.59/bbl on 02 Dec to $13.71/bbl by the week’s close. M1 ICE gasoil saw more volatility than the other two contracts, though ultimately eased roughly $1 w/w to $24.45/bbl at week’s close.
This week in Brent and ICE gasoil, money managers are expected to be risk-off as they trim their longs and add to their shorts. In RBOB, these players are expected to add length while leaving their shorts unchanged. Producers/merchants are expected to be risk-on across the board in Brent and RBOB, taking the opposite stance in ICE gasoil.
A dovish Fed cuts 25bp with renewed asset purchases (not strictly QE, but good for risk assets) saw equities jump (S&P500 +0.7%), the dollar fell (0.60%) and yields fell (2yr down -7bp). But suddenly overnight after dreadful Oracle earnings the markets have reversed, Oracle was down 11% after hours, Nasdaq futures are currently down (-1.2%), Bitcoin is down 3%, and Ethereum down -4%.
Silver makes another new all-time high, and gold sits on a key support line, overnight events should support precious metals. (Chart 1 gold, Bloomberg)
The Fed cut by 0.25% (with 3 dissents:1 cut, 2 hold, less than thought) and will resume ‘temporary’ T-Bill purchases. The dot plots still see one cut in both 2026 & 2027, thought the OIS prices 53bp cuts in 2026. The Fed is also getting more optimistic about the economy. Big revision up in GDP growth for 2026 with inflation cooling faster. Unemployment peaks at 4.5% this year, Inflation peaks at 2.9% this year, with GDP for 2026 is now estimated 2.3% (prior forecast was 1.8%). The Fed will also start “temporarily” buying $40B of T-bills per month. They say this isn’t QE, but a sign liquidity in the banking system is too tight. The Fed believes it has over done QT and needs to reverse it quickly because they are concerned about the reserve drain from April 15th, tax payments. It’s abundance of caution, but still, its adding liquidity to the markets.
Oracle currently carries $127B in debt, with $25B due within three years. Despite this, the company is free cash flow negative, reporting roughly –$13B over the past 12 months, and it’s not expected to be FCF + before 2028.
The dollar resumes its downtrend (Chart 2, dollar index, Bloomberg)
CHINA’S BEIJING STOCK EXCHANGE 50 INDEX EXTENDS GAINS TO 5%
Bloomberg forward looking indicator in inflation is showing renewed disinflation in the next 6 months, with core cpi goods trending back down by mid-2026.
The Indian Rupee is EVEN WEAKER than the dollar….. INDIAN CENTRAL BANK LIKELY SELLING U.S. DOLLARS TO HELP RUPEE AVERT SHARP FALL – TRADERS
Donald Trump latest economic insight. “Instead of a 4% GDP or 3% GDP, it should be able to be 20 or 25%. I don’t know why it can’t be.”…….. hhhhmmmmmmmm!
Goldman Sachs Asset Management just laid out its “10 for 2026” market roadmap
And Bank of America’s 2026 macro calls.
Data today – SNB rate decision
The Feb’26 Brent futures contract initially eased this afternoon, from $62.30/bbl at 13:00 GMT to $61.38/bbl at 16:00 GMT. Prices met some support here, rising to $61.78/bbl at 17:00 GMT (time of writing). In the news, the US has extended its deadline for negotiations on buying Russia’s Lukoil’s international assets until 17 Jan. The general licence from the US Treasury permits parties to enter into contracts for the sale of assets and the winding down of related work on them. Lukoil’s global assets, with an estimated value of $22bn, have drawn interest from US private equity firm Carlyle Group as well as US oil major Chevron. In other news, workers at Brazil’s state-run oil company Petrobras will begin a strike on 15 December, according to a FUP union statement. The strike occurs as workers find the company’s second counteroffer for a labour agreement insufficient, amid an ongoing dispute over a retirement fund deficit and efforts to modify the employee compensation structure. According to Reuters, Petrobras does not expect the strike to impact its operations or production. Elsewhere, Shell is seeking to dissolve its joint venture with Russia’s Rosneft, through which it holds a stake in the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC). In macro, a divided Fed is set for another interest rate cut today; a decision is due to be announced at 14:00 ET (19:00 GMT). Finally, at time of writing, the front-month Feb/Mar’26 and 6-month Feb/Aug’26 spreads are at $0.30/bbl and $0.64/bbl, respectively.
Ok, $62 wasn’t that comfy after all! Brent slid through the early afternoon to the mid-$61 range. The speedbump of weekly EIA stats didn’t do much to alter the direction and flat price reached the European close at $61.51/bbl.
$62 feels comfy. For now. The lofty heights of $64 were too scary for the vertigo of flat price and the plummet back down has abated just around that mark – it reached the Asian close at $61.97/bbl. The brief interlude of ups and downs has seemingly cooled and Brent is only 76c lower than a week ago, hardly a yawning chasm of price action… Let’s look for fun somewhere else.
The Feb’26 Brent futures contract has traded rangebound around the $62/bbl handle this morning, sitting at $62.09/bbl at 10:45 GMT (time of writing). In the news, Kazakhstan’s energy ministry announced plans to reroute some oil from the Kashagan oil field to China following a Ukrainian drone attack on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium’s Black Sea terminal in Novorossiysk in late November. According to Reuters, Kazakhstan plans to supply 373kb of crude oil to China in December; this will mark the first export to China since the attack. Meanwhile, the American Petroleum Institute (API) has estimated a US crude oil inventory draw of 4.8mb in the week ending 05 December (-2.5mb prior for week ending 28 Nov). Official EIA data will be released today at 3:30 GMT. Thus far, US crude inventories show a net increase of 121kb for the year. In other news, Xtellus Partners, an investment firm based in New York, has suggested that the proceeds from selling Lukoil’s overseas assets be used to reimburse American investors who lost money after their Lukoil stocks were frozen due to the Russo-Ukrainian war. The proposal involves a cashless sale back to Lukoil securities held by US investors in exchange for the company’s global assets, which are estimated at $22bn. Elsewhere, Israel is expected to approve its $35bn gas export with Egypt, amid pressure from the Trump administration. Under the deal, Israel will export 130bcm of natural gas from the Leviathan gas field to Egypt with partners Chevron, NewMed Energy, and Ratio Petroleum Energy. Finally, at time of writing, the front-month Feb/Mar’26 and 6-month Feb/Aug’26 spreads are at $0.30/bbl and $0.59/bbl, respectively.
The focus today is firmly on the FED meeting, and more importantly what Chair Powell says after the 25bp cut. Long end yields are on the grind higher again, if the market fears reckless cuts at the front of the curve, then long end yields will continue higher, with equities already taking notice and losing momentum and silver rallying another 5.7% in 2 days. Long end yields are IMHO the biggest risk to financial markets in Q1 2026.
Investment in the Nasdaq 100 has climbed to around $32.5T, up from $12.5T just three years prior. Precious-metals equities have likewise jumped, doubling from $300B to over $600B in only twelve months. When even small amounts of capital begin moving into hard assets, the impact is large. And to put in context gold is a mere 2.8% of investors AUM.
YTD Silver +103%, Gold +59%, Bitcoin -3%!
The National Federation of Independent Businesses survey for prices just posted the biggest one month jump in the history of the survey.
While yesterday’s JOLTS (job openings) rate ticked up the bigger story is the QUITS rate fell sharply, and at 1.8% (lowest since May 2020) this is heading towards oversupplied territory (Chart 1, @lebas_janney, Bloomberg).
Chinese inflation falls back into deflation, CPI -0.1% MoM, +0.7% YoY, PPI -2.2% YoY.
Economic activity in China likely slowed further in November, with the high-frequency index and dashboard showing a sharp drop in the second half of the month. Sales of new homes and home appliances led the deterioration in demand, with new-home sales falling 41% year on year in the four weeks through Nov. 28. (Chart 2, @dlacalle_IA, Bloomberg economics)
More Chinese data censorship. While China’s property slump continues Beijing had told the two private sector housing data agencies (China Real Estate Information (CREI) & the China Index Academy) to withhold the numbers until further notice. (Chart 3, Telegraph, BIS, FRED)
JPMorgan fell nearly 5% yesterday after the bank told investors that it will spend billions of dollars more in expense.
Bullish investor sentiment is surging, in fact the gap between bullish and bearish readings jumped to 13.5 points, the 2nd-highest this year. (Chart 4, Bloomberg, zerohedge)
Trafigura Chief Economist Saad Rahim on oil in 2026: “Whether it’s a glut or a super glut, it’s kind of hard to get away from that…”
AUDUSD higher in 13 out of the last 14 days. OIS has 31bp hikes priced for the RBA over the next 12 months and 77bp cuts priced by the FED. Interest rate differentials matter.
Data today – Chinese inflation, Fed and BK of Canada rate decisions, Oracle & Broadcom earnings.
The Feb’26 Brent futures contract eased from $62.78/bbl at 12:15 GMT to $61.93/bbl at 17:00 GMT (time of writing). In the news, Reuters reported that Russia’s Syzran oil refinery (production 90kb/d in 2024) ceased processing on 05 December after being damaged by a Ukrainian drone attack. According to Reuters sources, drones damaged the plant’s CDU-6, which is expected to undergo repairs for about a month. Elsewhere, OxyVinyls, a subsidiary of Occidental Petroleum Corporation, has reported a fire at its La Porte, Texas, facility. The company stated that it was collaborating with local officials to address the situation and had received an “all-clear” for the incident at the site. The extent of the damage is currently unknown. Meanwhile, the TurkStream pipeline (capacity 31.5bcm) expects to operate smoothly after moving its headquarters from the Netherlands to Hungary, avoiding sanctions on Russian energy through an agreement with the US. In other news, Bloomberg tanker-tracking data shows a cargo of crude oil from Rosneft floating around Europe and Asia as it searches for buyers. The Fortis tanker carrying 700kb of sanctioned Russian oil has anchored near China’s Rizhao port but has yet to find a buyer. In the US, ExxonMobil is targeting $25bn in earnings growth from 2024 to 2030 and will increase oil and gas production; it also plans to lean more heavily into its assets in Guyana and the Permian Basin. Finally, the front-month Feb/Mar’26 and 6-month Feb/Aug’26 spreads are at $0.28/bbl and $0.59/bbl, respectively.
Despite limited flows since our last report on 03 Dec, there has finally been an introduction of some volatility in the M1 (Jan’26) Brent/Dubai contract as prices surged 38c d/d from -$0.66/bbl on 08 Dec to -$0.28/bbl on 09 Dec (time of writing). The overall Dubai market has continued to trade at extremely low volumes. However, in deferred Brent/Dubai, the Q2, Q3, and Q4’26 contracts appeared to have found a floor this week. Funds and refiners were on the buy-side of these deferred contracts in decent size, which also injected support in the front. Thus, the outright box structure has remained largely unchanged this week, with Jan/Feb rising from -$0.08/bbl on 02 Dec to -$0.04/bbl on 09 Dec. Dubai spreads have been quiet, with some selling seen in the Jan/Feb/Mar Dubai fly and the Dec/Jan spread. There has been some bank buy-side interest in the deferred boxes, though this has not been particularly aggressive.
Combined exchange-traded open interest in the Jan’26 Brent/Dubai has eased from 55.4mb on 02 Dec to 55.3mb on 04 Dec; this sits more than 25% below the 5-year high of 74.7mb, signalling room for fresh longs. However, net positioning against Onyx turned negative on 05 Dec, as trade houses shifted to selling and refiners trimmed their length. Despite this flow, the entire Brent/Dubai curve has moved higher this week. However, we are in an environment where positioning is low in Brent/Dubai, and thus, will need sustained buy-side interest to maintain this week’s upward move. If no fresh buying comes in, it is likely that we will see the curve revert lower once again. To this point, the low speculative volume and the prolonged lack of any particular trend in Brent/Dubai suggest that a mean reversion is likely in the near term.
It’s magnetic! Brent just can’t break away from the low-$60s level. Yesterday’s decline turned into another long sideways march through today’s session, as February Brent meandered slowly before dropping in the afternoon to reach the European close at $61.97/bbl. The curve is also getting a belting, as the prompt spread tumbled to 30c by the close, and Q4 spreads are slipping into contango again! Weakness is the name of the game at the moment, in the North Sea too…
Christmas is just around the corner, and Dated bulls are making a last-minute bid to get on Santa’s ‘nice’ list. Total have consistently been on the buy side of WTI Midland over the past week, and paper flows this week have been bullish so far, reigniting the bulls’ optimism
In this podcast, our Onyx Commodities Head of Trading Desks discuss the latest trends and developments in the oil, gas, power and carbon markets in which Onyx Commodities trades. This episode was recorded on Tuesday, 9 December 2025, at 11:00 a.m. London time. Please listen to the end of this podcast for important disclaimers.
This communication is for informational purposes only and based on the information available at the time the podcast was recorded. This is not an offer to buy or sell, nor a solicitation, and no recommendations are implied. It does not consider your financial circumstances or objectives and may not be suitable for you. Copyright 2025, Onyx Capital Group – all rights reserved.
In the week ending 5 December 2025, exchange traded futures volumes were significantly higher w/w across instruments in the first three tenors except the February Brent futures contract, which fell 7.29%. But March and April tenors showed robust weekly growth. WTI, on the other hand, showed major increases across all three tenors, with the February contract up over 60%. Heating oil, gasoil and RBOB futures all reported higher traded volumes across the strip, with the lowest increase in April gasoil, which rose just 3.24%.
Saudi allocations for January are in and they are big! Much higher than the softish volumes of recent months. Theallocations totalled 49.5 million bbls vs a paltry 36 mil bbls in December and 39.5 mil bbl in November. It was the big boysgetting more, as allocations to both PetroChina and Rongsheng got an extra 8 mil bbl from the previous month, back to “Bizas usual”, as a source said. Smaller volumes are allocated to the likes of Cnooc and Fujian – and Hengli got nothing at all!
The M1 Brent futures contract has been quite rangebound over the week, trading between $62 and $64/bbl. The 50-day moving average continues to prove a challenge for prices to break above, and so $63.68/bbl is the major resistance level here. Above that, the lower span of the Ichimoku cloud at $64/bbl will also pose a major hurdle. On the downside, the $62/bbl level could provide initial support, as prices found support here last week. Below this is the $60/bbl psychological level, which supported M1 prices from 17-21 Oct.
The Feb’26 Brent futures reached an early morning low of $62.25/bbl at 06.10 GMT, strengthened slightly to above $62.50/bbl at around 07.30 GMT and softened slightly to below $62.40/bbl at 09.30 GMT (time of writing). Saudi Arabia’s crude exports to China are expected to reach a three-month high in January after Saudi Aramco cut official selling prices to Asia. About 49.5mb (1.6 mb/d) are allocated to Chinese refiners, the most since October, up from under 40 mb in the previous two months. PetroChina, Rongsheng Petrochemical and Shenghong Petrochemical plan to increase liftings, while CNOOC and Hengli Petrochemical will take less. Iraq has resumed output at Lukoil’s West Qurna-2 oilfield, one of the largest globally, after a leak in an export pipeline forced production cuts, two Iraqi energy officials told Reuters this morning. Oil prices had earlier trimmed losses when sources reported that operations were halted at the field, which typically produces about 460 kb/d. Iran is seeking more international partners for its oil and gas sector, promoting “golden investment opportunities,” oil minister Mohsen Paknejad said during talks with Belarus. He noted that Tehran has already secured contracts with “friendly nations” following recent high-level cooperation agreements between the two countries. Under Western sanctions, Iran is increasingly relying on China and Russia, with China taking most of its oil exports. Ukraine is preparing to present a revised peace plan to the White House, refusing to make territorial concessions to Russia after President Volodymyr Zelensky said he has “no right” to surrender land under Ukrainian or international law. The proposal aims to offer alternatives to the US after recent negotiations between American and Ukrainian officials failed to yield an acceptable deal. Zelensky reiterated Kyiv’s position during meetings with European and NATO leaders, who worry that a deal involving major territorial concessions could leave Ukraine vulnerable to future aggression. Finally, at the time of writing, the front-month Feb/Mar’26 and 6-month Feb/Aug’26 spreads are at $0.32/bbl and $0.78/bbl, respectively.
Australia’s hawkish pivot is ripping through global rates. Bullock’s “no cuts for the foreseeable future” stance has catapulted AU 10-year yields to the top of the developed-market league table, widening the AU–US spread to the highest since early 2022. With Q4 CPI now the swing factor for a potential RBA hike in May, divergence versus a Fed still cutting has become the dominant theme. The 10-year differential (Figure 1) shows Australia breaking away, dragging AUD higher.
Meanwhile, the Fed is set for a third cut tomorrow, but support for more easing is thinning out, now only 72bps of cuts priced in the next 12 months, compared to over 90 bps at the end of November (Figure 2). USTs cheapened a little ahead of FOMC with 10yr pinned in its 4.00–4.20% range. NY Fed survey shows inflation expectations steady but household sentiment souring.
Germany is accelerating its military build-out, with Merz vowing to turn the Bundeswehr into Europe’s strongest army and committing to hit NATO’s new 3.5%-of-GDP defence target by 2029 – six years early. Berlin is leaning heavily on Rheinmetall, KNDS and the US–Israeli Arrow 3 system as it rewires Europe’s security architecture.
RBI launches unprecedented FX operation, with traders reportedly selling $100 million USD per minute, in an attempt to curb record depreciation without draining liquidity. Governor Malhotra is embracing a more flexible, two-way regime to deter speculation, but a widening trade deficit, 50% US tariffs and foreign outflows keep pressure intense as the rupee now holds just below the psychologically critical 90 level.
Trump permits sales of Nvidia H200 chips to China, though Nvidia share price reaction was muted, up 1.7% yesterday. Nvidia shares are still 12.5% down from record high at end of October, while S&P 500 index is just 1.1% off its late-October high. Globally, indices remain near record highs: Kopsi just 2% down, Nikkei 3.3% down.
Data today: JOLTS, ADP weekly, NFIB business optimism, BoE Bailey speech.
The European and Asian naphtha markets saw diverging fortunes as the M1 East/West reached highs of $40/mt last week. Eastern strength was driven by a combination of softer crude, MOPJ MOC buying, and propane strength. Given the continued narrowing of FEI/MOPJ differentials, and the greater selling flows this spawns, this may lend continued strength to MOPJ as crackers seek to buy the relatively cheaper and more competitive naphtha. Meanwhile, Europe saw relative weakness, with blending demand softening on the back of weaker gasoline cracks and higher ARA inventories. Cracks rallied modestly on 8 Dec but sentiment remains subdued. Open interest in the Jan’26 NWE crack is nearly on par with the 5-year high of 21mb. Positioning in cracks see a sell side split in 1H26, with the exception of Mar’26. The East/West has come off from highs of over $40/mt towards $37.50/mt in Jan’26, while front E/W boxes remain elevated. The FEI/MOPJ rallied by $20 in Jan’26 over the week, while the Jan’26 gasnaph fell by over $10 over the week.
From a technicals perspective, momentum is generally getting softer. The MOPJ crack remains confined within its horizontal channel between -$0.60 and $0.60/bbl, with momentum indicators showing weakening trend strength and the MACD crossing below zero, a breakout beyond the channel is required to shift sentiment. The East/West reversed lower from $40/mt, confirming a shooting star reversal pattern with fading RSI and weakening stochastics, with potential for a retracement toward $35/mt. Gasnaph continues to trade with a bearish bias, slipping lower toward $113/mt as negative momentum builds and candles widen; a further test of trendline support and potentially the $102/mt level looks likely. In contrast, FEI/MOPJ retains a constructive tone, supported by hammer candlesticks and a confirmed rising trendline; RSI sits above 60 and stochastics remain comfortably below overbought, suggesting room for further upside toward the late-November resistance around -$23/mt.
Another week brings another selection of new trade ideas from Flux Insights. This week, we look at trades in Gasoline and Naphtha. Our weekly Alpha report presents speculative and hedging trades based on technical analysis and data-driven tradecraft methods on Flux Commitment of Traders (COT) and Financials data.
The gasoline complex has reversed sentiment from its recovery last week, showing a weaker performance. This weakness has coincided with a 4.52mb (+2.2% w/w) build in US gasoline inventories for the week ending 28 November; current stock levels are on par with 2024 levels but remain well below the 2020-24 average. The front RBOB swap crack has fallen nearly $2 w/w, from $15.59/bbl on 01 Dec to $13.74/bbl on 08 Dec.
The Jan’26 EBOB crack saw resistance at the $14.40/bbl handle this week, falling from $14.31/bbl on 01 Dec to $13.10/bbl on 08 Dec (time of writing). Good selling flows against Onyx have pressured prices this week. Trade houses were good net sellers of the contract this week. EBOB spreads have also been pressured, with the front Jan/Feb’26 EBOB spread weakening from $5.00/mt on 01 Dec to $3.75/mt on 08 Dec alongside trade houses and refiners cutting length. Feb/Mar’26 also saw weakness, despite buy-side flows against Onyx this week from trade houses.
A pipeline leak and temporary shutdown of the 460 kb/d Iraqi West Qurna 2 field sent Brent flat price back up above $63 at lunchtime following the morning slump. Lukoil’s force majeure declaration didn’t lead to a halt in flows but a leaky pipeline is an insurmountable hurdle for the embattled field – it shouldn’t take too long to fix, though. But the market is very tired and quickly slipped back to under that point again, finally reaching the London close at $62.79/bbl.
The Feb’26 Brent futures contract has traded relatively rangebound this afternoon, between the $62.80/bbl and $63.00/bbl handles. Levels are at $62.81/bbl at 17:00 GMT (time of writing). In the news, Reuters reported that Iraq has halted all oil production at Lukoil’s West Qurna-2 oilfield (capacity 460kb/d), following a leak on an export pipeline. Elsewhere, Reuters also reported that Kazakhstan intends to supply 50kt of crude oil directly from the Kashagan field to China in December, via the Atasu-Alashankou pipeline. This marks the first since a Ukrainian drone attack damaged the Caspian Pipeline Consortium’s (CPC) Black Sea terminal. The CPC reportedly will not return to full export capacity until at least 11 December, due to weather and diving challenges; the terminal handles roughly 80% of Kazakh oil exports. Some volumes have been diverted to other destinations, though options for re-routing the bulk of its oil are limited. Meanwhile, TotalEnergies announced that it will merge its upstream UK business with French major NEO NEXT to create the largest independent oil and gas producer in Britain, NEO NEXT+. The deal is subject to conditions, such as regulatory approvals, which are expected in the first half of next year. NEO NEXT+ will target a production of over 250kb/d in 2026, according to TotalEnergies. In other news, Bloomberg data show that the LNG tanker Valera, sanctioned by the US, has docked at the Chinese LNG port of Beihai. This marks China’s first shipment from a Russian LNG export project on the Baltic Sea sanctioned by the US. Finally, at time of writing, the front-month Feb/Mar’26 and 6-month Feb/Aug’26 spreads are at $0.35/bbl and $0.90/bbl, respectively.
View: Bearish Target Price: $61-63/bb Critical Resistance Ahead The M1 Brent futures contract remains rangebound between $62 and $63/bbl, with a strong resistance level at the 50-day moving average (blue line on the chart below). Despite the bullish optics of
The Feb’26 Brent futures contract has eased this morning, from $63.93/bbl at 07:30 GMT to $63.25/bbl at 10:00 GMT (time of writing). In the news, Platts has announced that, beginning 15 December for cargoes and 02 January for barges, any oil product traced back to Russian crude will not be included in its benchmark price assessments. Elsewhere, Reuters has reported that Chinese crude oil imports have risen 4.9% y/y in November, as daily import volumes reached a 2-year high. According to the General Administration of Customs data, November saw an import rate of 12.4mb/d, up 5.2% compared to October levels. Meanwhile, Hebei Xinhai Holdings Group, a Chinese independent refinery operator, is moving forward with a $3.6bn petrochemicals expansion project despite disruptions to business from US sanctions. According to Reuters sources, the company has “recovered from the initial, brief disruptions” and has found workarounds by operating through entities segregated from the blacklisted firm, continuing to import Iranian oil. In other news, Energy Minister Suhail al-Mazrouei has stated that the United Arab Emirates aims not only to meet its domestic LNG needs but also to increase its exports, citing global demand surpassing supply. Finally, at time of writing, the front-month Feb/Mar’26 and 6-month Feb/Aug’26 spreads are at $0.37/bbl and $0.91/bbl, respectively.
