Our latest energy derivatives stories across the World.
In this publication, we leverage Onyx’s proprietary Commitment of Traders data in order to identify changes in swap Open Interest and Positioning against Onyx with a view, in conjunction with long/short entry price levels and volatility analysis to identify potential continuation or reversal trends. In this edition, we take a look at the Jul’25 Brent/Dubai
In this publication, we leverage Onyx’s proprietary Commitment of Traders data in order to identify changes in swap Open Interest and Positioning against Onyx with a view, in conjunction with long/short entry price levels and volatility analysis to identify potential continuation or reversal trends.
In this edition, we take a look at the Aug’25 EBOB crack.
This report reviews weekly oil inventory data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report, Global Insights’ ARA Independent Storage and International Enterprise’s Singapore product storage
See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
This report reviews the key data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report
When there was no commitment of traders data, technical analysts looked for a workaround to infer overall position changes in the market. The analysis tests joint changes in a futures contract’s price and open interest to determine whether long or short positions were being added or whether long or short positions were covered. These outcomes are illustrated in Table 1 below.
To build our series, we test the conditions in Table 1 below and then qualify the change as one of the four outcomes. We then count the number of occurrences of each outcome in a lookback period to give the percentage of each outcome. The four outcomes over the lookback period always add up to 100%. The look-back period rolls over daily. Table 2 shows the price implications of the four outcomes. Tables 3 and 4 illustrate Open Interest, Volume and Price relations and Open Interest, respectively.
This report aims to provide a position index for energy futures between -50 and 50, with 0 as the neutral position. The full methodology is at the back of the report. When the position index is at the extremes, above 40 or below -40, the market is overstretched relative to its average position in the previous 3-year rolling window. As such, it is ripe for mean reversion. Consequently, when the index is high, deleveraging will follow, having a negative impact on price, while when the index is low, we expect accumulation that will push the price higher.
This report covers the correlation in daily returns (on different rolling window periods) between the main energy contracts listed on the ICE and NYMEX exchange and the S&P 500 and the DXY dollar index.
Onyx’s in-house CTA positioning model determines the net positioning of CTAs in a range of futures benchmarks. In the week ending 23 Jun, we saw an overall 146% increase in CTA net length across the futures benchmarks. More granularly, Brent futures recorded a 183% increase from -15k lots to +18.4k lots this week, its highest level since January 2024. In refined products, RBOB futures recorded a 174% increase to +20k lots on 23 Jun. In distillate fuel oil, ICE LS gasoil and NYMEX heating oil witnessed a 190% and 138% increase w/w, respectively, to +18.9k lots and +16.8k lots. CTA net long positioning is approaching max long levels across the futures benchmarks. Such one-sided positioning tends to flag a contrarian CTA sell-side signal, which could cap further gains in oil prices. Hence, further rallies in price due to geopolitical risk may be driven by non-CTA speculative players.
Click below to explore our new Refinery Margins Report, offering a clear, detailed analysis of weekly and monthly shifts in key regional refinery margins. This report enables readers to pinpoint where margins are tightening or loosening across regions, drawing on proprietary yields and our leading market share in swaps to build a world class financial refinery margin—essential for understanding the evolving landscape of regional refinery economics.
Click below to explore our ETFs report, providing a detailed analysis of price movements, trading volume, and counterparty shifts in ETF underlyings, along with open interest trends in the options market. Featured funds include USO, SCO, UCO, KOLD, BOIL, and UNG. For each ETF, we offer a comprehensive breakdown of price trends, volume, open interest, and key market participants.
This report reviews weekly oil inventory data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report, Global Insights’ ARA Independent Storage and International Enterprise’s Singapore product storage
In this publication, we leverage Onyx’s proprietary Commitment of Traders data in order to identify changes in swap Open Interest and Positioning against Onyx with a view, in conjunction with long/short entry price levels and volatility analysis to identify potential continuation or reversal trends. In this edition, we take a look at the Jul’25 CP (Saudi Aramco) propane
In this publication, we leverage Onyx’s proprietary Commitment of Traders data in order to identify changes in swap Open Interest and Positioning against Onyx with a view, in conjunction with long/short entry price levels and volatility analysis to identify potential continuation or reversal trends.
In this edition, we take a look at the Jul’25 Naphtha East/West (MOPJ – NWE Naphtha).
See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
This report reviews the key data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report
When there was no commitment of traders data, technical analysts looked for a workaround to infer overall position changes in the market. The analysis tests joint changes in a futures contract’s price and open interest to determine whether long or short positions were being added or whether long or short positions were covered. These outcomes are illustrated in Table 1 below.
To build our series, we test the conditions in Table 1 below and then qualify the change as one of the four outcomes. We then count the number of occurrences of each outcome in a lookback period to give the percentage of each outcome. The four outcomes over the lookback period always add up to 100%. The look-back period rolls over daily. Table 2 shows the price implications of the four outcomes. Tables 3 and 4 illustrate Open Interest, Volume and Price relations and Open Interest, respectively.
This report aims to provide a position index for energy futures between -50 and 50, with 0 as the neutral position. The full methodology is at the back of the report. When the position index is at the extremes, above 40 or below -40, the market is overstretched relative to its average position in the previous 3-year rolling window. As such, it is ripe for mean reversion. Consequently, when the index is high, deleveraging will follow, having a negative impact on price, while when the index is low, we expect accumulation that will push the price higher.
This report covers the correlation in daily returns (on different rolling window periods) between the main energy contracts listed on the ICE and NYMEX exchange and the S&P 500 and the DXY dollar index.
Onyx’s in-house CTA positioning model determines the net positioning of CTAs in a range of futures benchmarks. In the week ending 13 Jun, we saw an overall 103% increase in CTA net length across the futures benchmarks. More granularly, WTI futures recorded a significant 135% increase from -15k lots to +5.6k lots this week, while Brent futures clocked a 92% increase to -1.8k lots. In refined products, RBOB futures recorded a 125% increase as CTAs offloaded their shorts, taking net long positioning up to 2.25k lots on 13 Jun. In distillate fuel oil, ICE LS gasoil and NYMEX heating oil witnessed a 95% and 83% increase w/w, respectively, to -670 lots and -2.7k lots.
Click below to explore our new Refinery Margins Report, offering a clear, detailed analysis of weekly and monthly shifts in key regional refinery margins. This report enables readers to pinpoint where margins are tightening or loosening across regions, drawing on proprietary yields and our leading market share in swaps to build a world class financial refinery margin—essential for understanding the evolving landscape of regional refinery economics.
Click below to explore our ETFs report, providing a detailed analysis of price movements, trading volume, and counterparty shifts in ETF underlyings, along with open interest trends in the options market. Featured funds include USO, SCO, UCO, KOLD, BOIL, and UNG. For each ETF, we offer a comprehensive breakdown of price trends, volume, open interest, and key market participants.
In this publication, we leverage Onyx’s proprietary Commitment of Traders data in order to identify changes in swap Open Interest and Positioning against Onyx with a view, in conjunction with long/short entry price levels and volatility analysis to identify potential continuation or reversal trends.
In this edition, we take a look at the Jul’25 Naphtha Crack.
In this publication, we leverage Onyx’s proprietary Commitment of Traders data in order to identify changes in swap Open Interest and Positioning against Onyx with a view, in conjunction with long/short entry price levels and volatility analysis to identify potential continuation or reversal trends.
In this edition, we take a look at the Jul’25 Gasoline Arb (RBOB – EBOB).
This report reviews weekly oil inventory data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report, Global Insights’ ARA Independent Storage and International Enterprise’s Singapore product storage
See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
This report reviews the key data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Onyx’s in-house CTA positioning model determines the net positioning of CTAs in a range of futures benchmarks. In the week ending 6 June, CTA net short positions became less negative in crude oil futures (Brent and WTI) alongside refined product futures (gasoil and heating oil). Brent and WTI futures saw a small net change in the week to -20.46k lots and -12.36k lots, respectively. Brent increased by under 8k lots and WTI rose by just shy of 12k lots. In the products, RBOB net positioning remains negative, seeing next to no net change, at -7.8k lots. On the other hand, both heating oil and gasoil saw strong weekly increases to become less negative at -14.1k lots and -10.8k lots.
This report covers the correlation in daily returns (on different rolling window periods) between the main energy contracts listed on the ICE and NYMEX exchange and the S&P 500 and the DXY dollar index.
Click below to explore our new Refinery Margins Report, offering a clear, detailed analysis of weekly and monthly shifts in key regional refinery margins. This report enables readers to pinpoint where margins are tightening or loosening across regions, drawing on proprietary yields and our leading market share in swaps to build a world class financial refinery margin—essential for understanding the evolving landscape of regional refinery economics.
Click below to explore our ETFs report, providing a detailed analysis of price movements, trading volume, and counterparty shifts in ETF underlyings, along with open interest trends in the options market. Featured funds include USO, SCO, UCO, KOLD, BOIL, and UNG. For each ETF, we offer a comprehensive breakdown of price trends, volume, open interest, and key market participants.
In this publication, we leverage Onyx’s proprietary Commitment of Traders data in order to identify changes in swap Open Interest and Positioning against Onyx with a view, in conjunction with long/short entry price levels and volatility analysis to identify potential continuation or reversal trends.
In this edition, we take a look at the Q3’25 Sing 380 crack.
In this publication, we leverage Onyx’s proprietary Commitment of Traders data in order to identify changes in swap Open Interest and Positioning against Onyx with a view, in conjunction with long/short entry price levels and volatility analysis to identify potential continuation or reversal trends.
In this edition, we take a look at the Jul’25 Naphtha East/West.
This report reviews weekly oil inventory data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report, Global Insights’ ARA Independent Storage and International Enterprise’s Singapore product storage
See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
Everyone just wanted a calm lead-up to the weekend after the carnage of the last week. Brent oscillated gently in a 50c range throughout the European session, reaching the close at $68.31/bbl. Expiry is looming on Monday and the prompt spread remains beefy at $1.11. The Aug WTI/Brent spread has closed in significantly in recent sessions, from around -$2.80 on Wednesday morning to -$2.38 by today’s close.
The headline that OPEC+ is considering another fake output hike in its early July meeting sent Brent down again, all the way to $67.45/bbl. Our question has to be: why does the market still care what OPEC decides? They’re doing whatever they like anyway! And have been for months! Furthermore, early analysis by The Officials suggests even Saudi Arabia is at or approaching its commercial maximum output. They’re all maxed out!
This afternoon, the front-month Brent futures contract was initially rangebound between $68 and $68.40/bbl but softened further to $67.25/bbl at 16:40 BST. Prices found more support at this level and have since risen to $67.65/bbl at the time of writing (17:45 BST).
They’re playing ping pong with the market! But nobody’s laughing. Adnoc is undoing its cut to cargo allocations after a monumental backlash from lifters and the market at large. Some hedges had already been lifted as they had to adapt to receiving 400 kb rather than 500 kb, but now they’ll be getting 500 kb again! This has totally ruined risk management for the affected players and is the worst commercial mistake we’ve ever seen in oil markets! As one source commented, the lifters’ hedges could be 10 bucks higher due to the war craziness of the past week.
The question is now how lifters react: they could refuse to take the full 500 kb amount, having prepared to receive 400 kb they were told to expect. It comes down to who controls the taps pumping the crude into the ship – will they back Adnoc or the lifter…? One trader said “This feels like even more of a spit in the face!” People are not happy – even those not directly affected by the unilateral chopping and changing of allocations. We feel most of all for those who’ve been messed around by this. These wounds are entirely self-inflicted and we ask what kind of market understanding was lacking by those making the decisions…
The Aug’25 Brent crude futures was stable and trading in a 40c range on Friday morning, supported above $68/bbl and printed $68.20/bbl at 11:30 BST (time of writing). Whilst prices have stabilised at this level, they are set for their steepest weekly decline since March 2023 as geopolitical risk premiums evaporated, with the market returning its focus to fundamentals. The U.S. Department of Energy has delayed scheduled crude oil deliveries to the SPR until the end of 2025 due to maintenance, pushing completion as much as seven months behind the original timeline. Gulf shipping costs fell after the Israel-Iran ceasefire, but may rise again if tensions return. The U.S. plans to hold a Gulf of Mexico oil and gas lease sale on December 10, offering 80 million acres with lower deepwater royalty rates to boost industry participation. China’s imports of Iranian oil surged to record levels in June, driven by strong demand from independent refineries and accelerated deliveries ahead of regional tensions, with analysts expecting elevated volumes to continue. The U.S. and China have agreed on a framework to expedite rare earth exports to the U.S., easing trade tensions and addressing supply chain disruptions caused by earlier export curbs amid the ongoing trade negotiations. Finally, the front (Aug/Sep) and 6-month (Aug/Feb) Brent futures spreads are at $1.13/bbl and $3.12/bbl respectively.
The Americans are in a good mood again: no more war, their 401(k) balances bulging as the S&P 500 hunts an all-time high! The vibes are good. Just don’t look ahead too far and see the ugly tariffs rearing their head again on 9 July. Oh, and the dollar is getting hammered. Pound Sterling reached $1.3769 in terms of US dollar this afternoon. Everyone is scrambling to get their money out of the US.
Flat price was on the up today as well, for the first time since Israel and Iran cooled their heels. It even peaked just over the $69 mark shortly before the close, though it fell back to $68.92/bbl. Time spread structure has solidified a little with the front spread firming at $1.28/bbl. But we still have a lingering contango from March 26 tenor forwards…
The world had its eyes glued to the price of Brent, and bam, just like that, the geopolitical risk premium is gone. There were vast escalations to be sure, including direct US involvement, but add a bit of nuance and you realise the sequence of events was almost telegraphed, much like the 2024 Iran-Israel conflict, or Operation Martyr Soleimani from 2020. Approaching $80/bbl, the bullish momentum in Brent was already waning, and the market barely blinked following the US’s strikes on Iranian nuclear sites. Once Iran retaliated by attacking an American air base in Qatar, the market quickly sold into this, and Brent fell by $10. Apart from a few diverted flights away from Doha and thousands of jetlagged passengers, the damage was minimal. People knew the base was empty – it was said that the gym at the base was less busy than usual; online commenters joked that it was leg day. Once it became clear that the Strait of Hormuz wouldn’t be disrupted, boom goes Brent; the last two weeks were a fever dream. Now that we are back to the 60s, more pressing fundamental issues lie ahead of us: What of increased OPEC+ supply? What of bearish oil balances? What of Trump’s tariffs? The 90-day tariff deadline is looming. As US equities approach record highs, they are laser-focused on that September rate cut. Friday’s US PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, could indicate what lies ahead.
The Aug’25 Brent futures contract rallied all afternoon to $69.01/bbl at 16:28 BST but have since softened to $68.45/bbl at 17:30 BST (time of writing). In the news, Sierra Leone will decide on launching its next offshore oil and gas licensing a senior official said on Jun 26. The six-week survey aims to de-risk exploration and attract interest for a possible licensing launch in October. Sierra Leone estimates it holds 30 B barrels of recoverable offshore resources. Director General Foday Mansaray noted that major firms like Shell, Petrobras, Hess, and Murphy Oil have recently purchased exploration data. In other news, Sudan and South Sudan have not reached a deal on revising the oil transit fees South Sudan pays to export its crude through Sudan’s pipeline network, Radio Tamazuj reported Thursday. South Sudan relies on a pipeline through Sudan to access Port Sudan on the Red Sea. Sudan is now seeking higher fees, citing logistical challenges at the Bashayer terminal. With continued uncertainty, South Sudan is exploring alternatives, including a potential pipeline to Djibouti via Ethiopia. Associated British Foods has warned it will shut the Vivergo bioethanol plant by September unless the government provides immediate support. The closure would be a blow to Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who hailed last month’s UK-US trade deal as a win for British industry. The deal eliminated the UK’s 19% tariff on US ethanol, allowing 1.4 B litres duty-free, equivalent to the entire UK market. British producers argue this, combined with existing regulatory imbalances, makes UK operations unviable. Finally, the front-month Aug/Sep and 6-month Aug/Feb’26 spreads are at $0.93/bbl and $3.23/bbl respectively.
The gasoline market saw a choppy fortnight amid sluggish fundamentals. Nonetheless, the Asian 92 complex has been more resilient than Atlantic Basin gasoline. In Europe, the Aug’25 EBOB crack endured a volatile stretch, pressured initially by EBOB/Gasoil stop-outs before rebounding on Dangote supply concerns
Flat price may have found some firmer ground and steadied in the upper 60s, but the prompt spread is beavering its way up again: by today’s Asian close it had climbed to $1.19, with that strength filtering down the curve. Supply and demand balances
are still showing supply overhangs into Q4 this year, as the Onyx Global Oil Balance projects a 500 kb/d surplus. Once the
summer burn and peak demand season filters out, the longer tem market outlook is a bit shaky, as the global economy continues to struggle with tariff threats and lukewarm growth.
The Aug’25 Brent futures contract initially rallied to $68.45/bbl at 08:50 BST before falling to $67.72/bbl at 11:25 BST. Prices have since fallen further to $67.65/bbl at 11:25 BST (time of writing). In the news, according to the API, US crude inventories dropped by 4.277 mb for the week ending Jun 20. Gasoline stocks increased by 764kb but remain 2% below the five-year average. Distillates fell by 1.026mb, Cushing hub inventories edged down by 75kb. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) rose slightly by 200kb to 402.5 mb. In other news, Brazil is expanding its oil sector auctioning 19 offshore blocks in the sensitive Foz do Amazonas region and is investing $900 million to boost refinery capacity. With oil output at 3.5 mb/d and limited refining capacity, the focus is on energy security. At the same time, Brazil seeks $6.2 B more from the energy industry through tax changes or new licenses. The recent conflict between Israel and Iran has heightened Beijing’s concerns over energy security and renewed its interest in Russia’s proposed Power of Siberia 2 (POS 2) pipeline. According to the Wall Street Journal, Chinese officials are now more open to the project despite previous hesitations over ownership, pricing, and fears of over-reliance on Russian gas. In addition to gas, China may also look to reduce its dependence on Iranian oil by increasing imports from Russia. Finally, the front-month Aug/Sep spread is at $0.86/bbl and the 6-month Aug/Feb’26 spread is at $2.69/bbl.
In addition to our regular Monday CFTC COT analysis report, Onyx Insight will publish its own in-house CFTC COT forecast ahead of the official Friday report. The model forecasts changes in long and short positions using machine learning, utilising Onyx’s proprietary data.
Trump’s on a victory lap at the NATO summit, boasting about how bombing Iran ended the war in an unprecedented chain of events. But now he likes them and he wants Iran to sell oil to China, “They’re going to need money to put that country back into shape. We want to see that happen”, he said. Trump’s rolling out the red Iranian carpet, saying “We’re not taking over the oil” and he won’t stop oil flows to China – he wants to see Iran back on its feet. BFF time. Israel is very mature so surely they aren’t jealous. The Americans, Israelis and even CIA can’t agree! Iran’s now claiming the facilities were gravely damaged – convenient… And the IAEA’s stumbling around in the dark trying to figure out what’s up. They’re playing ‘4D chess,’ said a source.
The Aug’25 Brent futures contract initially fell to $67.33/bbl before rallying up to $68.74/bbl at 17:31 BST (time of writing). In the news, Shell has entered early-stage discussions to acquire rival BP, according to a Wall Street Journal report citing sources familiar with the matter. The talks are said to be active, with BP carefully weighing Shell’s approach. No deal terms have been disclosed, and there is no certainty that the negotiations will result in a merger. In other news, Saudi Arabia’s oil export revenues dropped 21.2% yy/y in April to $16.5 B due to falling oil prices amid oversupply concerns and weaker global growth. Prices dipped about 15% that month following OPEC+’s surprise plan to ramp up production and a fresh wave of US tariffs. Oil exports made up 68.6% of total exports in April, down from 77.5% a year earlier. While total exports fell 10.9%, non-oil exports rose 24.6%, data from Saudi Arabia’s General Authority for Statistics showed. Israel’s Leviathan and Karish gas fields have resumed operations after nearly two weeks offline due to the conflict with Iran, restoring a key energy supply to Egypt and Jordan. The shutdown, left only the older Tamar field running for domestic use. Leviathan partners NewMed and Ratio Energies estimate the halt cost $12 million in lost revenue and said they may seek state compensation. Israel’s Energy Ministry confirmed the restart after a security review, saying exports and tax revenues would rise and electricity and industry operations would benefit. Finally, the front-month Aug/Sep and 6-month Aug/Feb’26 spreads are at $1.00/bbl and $3.46/bbl respectively.
Square one. It’s a comforting place. You know where you stand. Maybe it’s around a negotiating table again for the US and Iran, following their well-mannered de-escalation earlier this week. Whether or not Trump’s bombing actually destroyed Iran’s nuclear facilities (even the CIA said the damage at Fordow was minimal), he’s certainly quick to claim it as a win, even despite Iran sauntering out of cooperation with the IAEA and being able to continue unfettered oil exports. Credit where credit is due, Trump can rightfully claim that he stopped the shooting between Israel and Iran. Well done! He needed a win as his diplomatic scorecard hasn’t been looking pretty since he came into office. But hey at least he’s got cheap oil again.
According to conversations with market sources, as the under allocation by Adnoc filters through the system, buyers are physically short on the number of barrels received and this causes issues on their refining systems which were counting on the cargoes. And critically the hedges are losing money big time, ‘it is a $12 million loss,’ said a source. Lawsuits are launched through the chain – likely to hit even Adnoc-said equity sources.
The Aug’25 Brent futures contract initially rallied to $68.45/bbl at 08:50 BST before falling to $67.72/bbl at 11:25 BST. Prices have since fallen further to $67.65/bbl at 11:25 BST (time of writing). In the news, according to the API, US crude inventories dropped by 4.277 mb for the week ending Jun 20. Gasoline stocks increased by 764kb but remain 2% below the five-year average. Distillates fell by 1.026mb, Cushing hub inventories edged down by 75kb. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) rose slightly by 200kb to 402.5 mb. In other news, Brazil is expanding its oil sector auctioning 19 offshore blocks in the sensitive Foz do Amazonas region and is investing $900 million to boost refinery capacity. With oil output at 3.5 mb/d and limited refining capacity, the focus is on energy security. At the same time, Brazil seeks $6.2 B more from the energy industry through tax changes or new licenses. The recent conflict between Israel and Iran has heightened Beijing’s concerns over energy security and renewed its interest in Russia’s proposed Power of Siberia 2 (POS 2) pipeline. According to the Wall Street Journal, Chinese officials are now more open to the project despite previous hesitations over ownership, pricing, and fears of over-reliance on Russian gas. In addition to gas, China may also look to reduce its dependence on Iranian oil by increasing imports from Russia. Finally, the front-month Aug/Sep spread is at $0.86/bbl and the 6-month Aug/Feb’26 spread is at $2.69/bbl.
It was quite the turnaround in Brent this week. Markets did a quick 180 as Middle East tensions de-escalated following Iran’s telegraphed attack at a US military base in Qatar, in retaliation for American strikes against its nuclear sites. The geopolitical risk premium popped like a balloon. Bullish momentum was already waning before that, given the market’s muted reaction on Monday’s open, alongside the presence of Eni and Shell in the physical window, selling Forties. So synchronised were the directions of Brent futures and Dated. The futures rally on 13 June magnified the squeeze on deliverable supplies in Cushing, tightening the market and buoying Total’s bids in the North Sea physical. DFLs were sent to the stratosphere, with Jul’25 touching $2/bbl. But as the old adage goes, what goes up must come down. Since the geopolitical risk deflation on 23 June, Brent spreads and DFLs are back to square one, before the geopolitical rally.
The forward curve is implying weaker, especially the prompt week of 30-04 July. Glencore joined in on the selling party on 24 June, offering Midland, while BP put a Midland cargo into chains, the first of the month. We expect this trend to continue, but the fate of the prompt rolls will depend on how much the physical weakens, forming a basis for our dual trade idea. The front (July rolls) are slightly oversold, while the back (August rolls) is more overbought. Even at lower levels, there is a lack of buying, apart from refiner bids. As Dated weakens, it may be more difficult to fix arbs from the US to Europe, especially amid higher freight rates. Demand outlets would need to come from Chinese players lifting Forties, which is currently setting the curve. Stronger refinery margins may provide renewed support, especially as we’ve observed hedge selling flows of cracks with the refinery margins forward curve shifting noticeably higher.
However, the market is more risk-off, given the elevated, headline-driven volatility recently. Despite our cautiously bearish views, renewed geopolitical headlines could see another upside breakout and volatility spike. Open interest is above average in Jun’25 contracts, but is trending in line with the 5-year average in Jul’25, underscoring the relatively subdued interest by the market. The question now becomes, how low does Dated Brent go? Prices have retraced below pre-event rally levels, but remain high on a notional basis. There is room to go longer, but are we approaching a consolidation?
Good manners are back! First Trump thanks Iran for the heads up before the theocracy hit the US base in Qatar. Then he doubles up on his graciousness and says openly China can buy Iranian oil! He even said China can “continue purchasing” Iranian oil – recognising the open secret that China’s been buying shedloads of Iran’s supply for years. This will surely open the floodgates to more nations demanding the right to buy cheap Iranian crude – based on market conversations, there’s certainly appetite in India for cheap Iranian oil if sanctions loosen. Mr T also hopes China will buy “plenty” of US crude. But he’s got to remove the tariffs! Even 10% on oil kills competitiveness of American grades, so only a complete removal of tariffs would see that happen.
The Aug’25 Brent Futures contract initially rallied to $69.26/bbl at 14:08 BST but quickly fell off to $67.78/bbl. Prices have since fallen further to $66.93/bbl at 17:50 BST (time of writing). The drop in price comes after US President Trump stated that China could now resume buying Iranian oil. Further fuelling today’s bearish sentiment was the announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran. President Trump later accused both sides of violating it, noting Israeli strikes and Iranian retaliation. Explosions were reported in Tehran despite Trump’s claim he had urged Israel to hold back. Barclays noted that without a broader regional escalation, supply disruptions remain unlikely. In other news, US oil and gas producer Coterra Energy will keep its rig count steady at nine in the Permian Basin, CEO Tom Jorden said Tuesday. Speaking at the J.P. Morgan Energy, Power & Renewables Conference, Jorden noted the company had considered reducing to seven rigs in the second half of 2025, fearing a price collapse. EU diplomats expect to reach a deal this week on a new round of sanctions against Russia, though Slovakia and Hungary are pushing for concessions on Russian energy. The proposed 18th sanctions package includes measures targeting Russia’s energy revenues, banks, and shadow tanker fleet, aiming to pressure Moscow into a Ukraine ceasefire. Slovakia, citing economic impact, wants exemptions for landlocked countries, capped transit fees, and guarantees against shortages. Finally, the front/month Aug/Sep and the 6-month Aug/ Feb’26 spreads are at $0.75/bbl and $2.08/bbl respectively.
The M1 Brent futures contract opened at $70/bbl on 13 Jun and subsequently rallied to a peak of $81/bbl on 23 Jun, its highest level since January 2025. However, prices sharply sold off to $71/bbl on 23 Jun and retreated further to $68.10/bbl at the time of writing on 24 Jun. Short-term resistance may be seen at the $70/bbl mark, which coincides with the structural 100-day moving average.
In this podcast, our Onyx Commodities Head of Trading Desks discuss the latest trends and developments in the oil, gas, power and carbon markets in which Onyx Commodities trades. This episode was recorded on Tuesday,24 June 2025, at 11:30 a.m. London time. Please listen to the end of this podcast for important disclaimers.
Amidst mounting tensions in the Middle East and speculation of possible US involvement -ahead of the weekend strikes- in the week ending 20 June 2025, exchange traded futures volumes in Brent, RBOB and WTI declined w/w across the board. For Brent, August contract volumes fell the most (-13.35%), while for WTI it was the September contract that saw the steepest drop (-54.11%). Heating Oil August exchange traded volumes declined w/w, whereas volumes for September and October contracts rose w/w. By contrast, Gasoil exchange traded futures volumes rose across the board w/w, the only instrument to post universal increase.
The Aug’25 Brent Futures contract gapped down to $69.62/bbl at market opening and continued falling to $67.68/bbl at 07:43 BST before recovering to $69.86/bbl at 09:08 BST. Price have since come off to $69.49/bbl at 12:00 BST (time of writing). The drop in prices comes after Israel accepted US President Trump’s ceasefire proposal with Iran, easing fears of a broader conflict and potential supply disruptions. The 12-day conflict had caused sharp volatility, but with direct US strikes on Iranian nuclear sites failing to escalate the situation further, markets pulled back. Analysts caution, however, that tensions remain high and the ceasefire’s durability is uncertain. In other news, China remains Iran’s largest oil customer, buying around 90% of its seaborne exports. In 2024, Iranian oil has made up about 13.6% of China’s total crude imports, averaging 1.38 mb/d, mostly purchased by independent refiners or “teapots” in Shandong. US sanctions have made Iranian oil less accessible, pressuring some Chinese teapots to reduce imports amid fears of penalties. Still, Beijing continues to defend its trade with Iran, with imports often disguised as originating from other countries like Malaysia. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipping costs have hit their highest levels since October. Atlantic freight rates for standard LNG carriers reached $51,750/day, while Pacific rates climbed to $36,750/day, according to Spark Commodities. Fears of a potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid the Israel-Iran conflict have also driven up insurance costs and war risk premiums, further pressuring the market. Finally, the front/month Aug/Sep spread is at $0.86/bbl and the 6-month Aug/ Feb’26 spread is at $2.93/bbl.
Back to the 60s! The ceasefire between Israel and Iran double tapped flat price after yesterday evening’s plunge. Having ended yesterday’s trading above $72, it dropped to open today at $69.60. We were talking yesterday about how the spreads also had to weaken from their inflated and bulked up position near $1.50 and we saw evidence of that today, as the prompt spread dropped to below a buck, reaching the Asian close at 92c.
The dust is settling as the market falls and teams are busy assessing the damage. We saw the bombardment of Qatar’s American base and even Iraq also reported drone attacks targeting military sites and bases. And now Israel’s reported missile launches from Iran and ordered its people to get to safe spaces! Iran denied firing missiles. And Israel vowed to retaliate with force. Some things are clear but there is a lot of misinformation about. But the narrative and the direction of the war has shifted, and we are in the de-escalation mode. This war is over, folks!
In the week ending 17 June, open interest declined in the benchmark crude futures contracts (Brent and WTI futures). Brent and WTI futures saw a combined open interest dip of nearly 175mb (-3.55%) this week. Still, managed-by-money players were bullish this week and saw a combined increase of 6.4mb (+1.21%) in longs while liquidating 36.8mb (-19.76%) of their short positions. This was notably due to the addition of long positions in Brent, with WTI futures noting a removal of both long and short managed-by-money positions, albeit more significantly among short positions.
Talk the market up! Bomb! Rinse! Repeat! It’s a broken record. Even the greatest conductors of all time would be envious of such orchestration. The market saw through the transparency and Iran was quick to reassure its “friendly and brotherly” neighbours it meant no harm… Because there was nobody where they fired! They were nice enough to fire the slow ones that are easy to intercept and Qatar reported no casualties. Everyone’s a winner. What a rinse it was, if you were a long holder you were rinsed, bleached, dried out and are now wondering ‘why didn’t I read The Officials?’ We have been telling you the Strait cannot be closed and the supply is healthy and uninterrupted. Don’t forget Trump wants low prices. A winning combo… if you’re short!
Another week brings another selection of new trade ideas from Onyx Research. This week, we focus on geopolitical risk and look at trades in Crude and Distillates swaps. Our weekly Onyx Alpha report presents speculative and hedging trades based on technical analysis and data-driven tradecraft methods on Onyx Commitment of Traders (COT) and Flux Financials data.
The Aug’25 Brent Futures contract fell off to $75.99/bbl at 15:22 BST before recovering to $77.30/bbl at 17:30 BST. Prices then dropped to $75.18/bbl at 17:45 BST (time of writing). The price drops comes after reports of Iran launching attacks against US bases in Qatar. In the news, US President Donald Trump called for lower oil prices following recent US and Israeli strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities that stoked fears of a supply disruption. “Everyone, keep oil prices down, I’m watching! You’re playing into the hands of the enemy, don’t do it,” Trump posted in all caps on Truth Social. He also urged the Department of Energy to “drill, baby, drill,” prompting Energy Secretary Chris Wright to respond on X: “We’re on it!”. Venezuela’s Cardon refinery, the country’s second-largest with a capacity of 310kBrent/Dubai was shut down on 23 June due to a power outage, according to two sources familiar with the matter. Operated by state-owned PDVSA, the plant plays a key role in processing heavy crude from the Orinoco Belt. The blackout began early in the day and did not impact the nearby 645kBrent/Dubai Amuay refinery. PDVSA is transferring equipment between the two sites to restore power. In other news, US electricity prices surged to their highest levels since winter as a severe heat wave swept across the eastern half of the country, straining regional power grids. Next-day power prices at the PJM West hub in Pennsylvania soared over 430% to $211/MWh, while New England prices rose 180% to $161/MWh. PJM Interconnection expects power demand to peak at 160,000 MW Monday, prompting alerts for generators to operate at full capacity. Finally, the front-month Aug/Sep spread is at $1.38/bbl and the 6-month Aug/Feb’26 spread is at $5.11/bbl.
Brent crude futures rose by 11% over the past week, reaching 5-month highs as the Iran-Israel conflict worsened, with the market pricing in a higher geopolitical risk premium. In the latest escalation, strikes from the US on Iranian nuclear sites
The Americans wanted to play ‘whack-a-mole’ but now they’re busy playing ‘Where’s Wally’, searching for where Iran’s stashed its uranium stockpiles – regardless of how “spectacular” a success Trump claims! He came in to end the wars but has become what he promised to destroy! He went from ‘Big Beautiful Bill’ to ‘Big Bad Bombs’. Talk the market up, bomb, rinse, repeat! After gapping up on open to a 5-month high above $80, the market realised there’s no actual disruption and Brent got depressed through the Asian session, dropping back towards $77. In this kind of operation, you need to be on the same page as your allies, but the US and Israel seemed divided on the regime change question. Trump just wanted to blow something up, while Netanyahu wanted to topple an empire. But now Mr T fancies a go at toppling too, because Iran’s regime can’t “MAKE IRAN GREAT AGAIN”. An Israeli strike on a road to Fordow this morning did “very significant damage”, according to IAEA chief.
The Aug’25 Brent futures gapped up to $79.16/bbl at market opening. Prices then started falling throughout the morning to $76.44/bbl at 09:16 BST, before bouncing back to $77.56/bbl at 11: 34 BST (time of writing). The hike comes after the US joined Israel in striking Iranian nuclear sites, escalating tensions in the Middle East and driving fears of potential supply disruption. Analysts say the market is pricing in a geopolitical risk premium, especially around the threat of disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. While a sustained closure would hurt Iran’s own economy, even short-term threats could spike prices. Goldman Sachs warned Brent could temporarily hit $110/bbl if flows through the strait were halved for a month. In other news, Italian energy giant Eni has reduced staffing at its Zubair oil and gas field in Iraq as a precaution, a company spokesman said Monday. Eni is closely monitoring the situation in coordination with authorities. Meanwhile, Shell and Chevron, which also operate in Iraq, declined to comment. Vår Energi (VAR.OL) announced Monday that its long-delayed Balder X project in the North Sea is now operational. The development is expected to extend the Balder field’s life beyond 2045 and boost gross production by 80 kb/d. Balder X is key to Vår’s plan to increase output to over 400 kb/d by year-end, up from 272 kb/d in Q1. Finally, the front-month Aug/Sep and 6-month Aug/Feb’26 spreads are at $1.48/bbl and $5.62/bbl.
The Middle East and Asia are hot in more ways than one. Chaos is also reigning supreme in areas beyond Israel and Iran as Adnoc has cut the nominations to equity holders by 20 pct! Look at the document we received and do not ask who gave it but we would appreciate it if you send us more information.
The Aug’25 Brent crude futures rose from $76.02/bbl at 13:29 BST to $76.91/bbl at 14:52 BST and softened to $76.60/bbl at 17:10 BST (time of writing). The UK is withdrawing embassy staff from Iran as a precaution amid ongoing exchanges of fire between Israel and Iran, including new Iranian strikes and Israeli attacks on targets in Tehran. British, French, and German foreign ministers are meeting their Iranian counterparts in Geneva to help ease tensions. The Trump administration announced new sanctions targeting Iran and Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis, citing efforts to disrupt the supply of sensitive machinery and illicit oil trading networks. The Iran-related sanctions hit eight entities, one individual, and one vessel, including Hong Kong-based Unico Shipping Co. Ltd and Athena Shipping Co. Ltd, for supporting Tehran’s ballistic missile and UAV programs. Separately, the Treasury sanctioned four individuals, 12 entities, and two vessels linked to smuggling operations that fund the Houthis. The EU has decided not to lower the Russian oil price cap from $60 to $45/bbl due to rising volatility from the Israel-Iran conflict. The proposal was set for discussion by EU foreign ministers, but diplomats said the unstable Middle East situation made it too risky. G7 countries also agreed to delay action amid fluctuating oil prices. Residents of Nigeria’s Bille and Ogale communities will go to trial in 2027 over oil pollution claims against Shell and its former Nigerian subsidiary. The lawsuit, filed in 2015, alleges years of environmental damage, including contaminated drinking water. The communities seek compensation and cleanup of the oil spills. Finally, the front (Aug/Sep) and 6-month (Aug/Feb) Brent futures spreads are at $1.49/bbl and $5.27/bbl, respectively.
In High Sulphur Fuel Oil (HSFO), Geopolitical headlines initially drove cracks and spreads sharply higher, but the rally was quickly sold off, with the 380-grade structure giving back its gains. Early strength came from reports of stronger Egyptian HSFO demand to compensate for lost Israeli gas flows, yet profit-taking soon set in, and bearish momentum took control. Egypt has launched an emergency energy plan to manage surging demand and dwindling fuel supplies after Israel halted gas exports amid escalating conflict with Iran. Gas deliveries to several industrial sectors have been suspended, with Egypt shifting to heavy fuels like mazut and diesel to stabilise power. The crisis follows the shutdown of Israel’s Leviathan and Karish gas fields, which previously supplied Egypt with nearly 1 bcf/d. Adding to the disruption, Israel’s largest refinery, Bazan, was shut down due to missile damage at Haifa Port. The 380 East/West differential was the standout mover, as the prompt spread slid into single digits. The Jul’25 3.5% barge crack rallied to near -$1.00/bbl, supported by stronger crude and geopolitics, with open interest peaking at 35mb, 45% above average. Net positioning flipped from -45kb to +2mb, driven by trade house and bank buying. The Jul’25 380 East/West surged to $24.50/mt before collapsing to $3.75/mt, with open interest hitting 12.4mb (175% above average). Trade houses remain net short by 1.13mb despite recent buying. The Jul’25 Visco spread stayed rangebound before jumping to $9.50/mt. Open interest rose 27% above average, while net positioning climbed from +1.33mb to +2.72mb, mostly on trade house buying.
Everyone has their limit, and it would seem we might have found Trump’s. Trump wants cheap oil prices; that’s priority number one. And it turns out war isn’t very good at facilitating cheap oil.
We saw a similar Trump reaction function in equities, and to a bigger extent, bonds. Trump’s economic agenda had pushed treasury yields higher and higher, and stocks lower and lower, and as much as he hoped for a saving grace in the form of a Fed cut, it’s not gonna happen. So, he had to moderate his sweeping tariff agenda, slowing the treasury fire sale.
The Aug’25 Brent crude futures saw a choppy Friday morning, with lows of $76.26/bbl and highs of $77.50/bbl, trading at $77/bbl at 11:30 BST (time of writing). Prices are on track for a third consecutive weekly gain. Markets are tentative as the US has delayed its decision on direct Iran involvement. Satellite imagery shows Iran rapidly loading and dispersing oil exports from Kharg Island amid Israeli attacks, signalling a strategic push to maximise shipments while safeguarding infrastructure as regional tensions escalate. Russia has confirmed its delegation is ready to attend a third round of Ukraine talks in Istanbul after June 22, with dates to be announced soon, aiming to exchange comments on recent settlement proposals. Middle East jet fuel demand has fallen over 10% since the Israel-Iran conflict began, with commercial aviation disrupted and flights cancelled, though prices remain elevated amid rising freight rates, military demand, and Brent gains. The UK has issued new climate assessment guidance for fossil fuel projects, allowing Shell’s Jackdaw and Equinor’s Rosebank fields to reapply for permits, a move welcomed by industry but criticised by environmental groups as a test of the government’s climate credibility. Finally, the front (Aug/Sep) and 6-month (Aug/Feb) Brent futures spreads are at $1.54/bbl and $5.33/bbl respectively.
