Our latest energy derivatives stories across the World.
In this publication, we leverage Onyx’s proprietary Commitment of Traders data in order to identify changes in swap Open Interest and Positioning against Onyx with a view, in conjunction with long/short entry price levels and volatility analysis to identify potential continuation or reversal trends.
In this edition, we take a look at the Jul’25 Naphtha Crack.
In this publication, we leverage Onyx’s proprietary Commitment of Traders data in order to identify changes in swap Open Interest and Positioning against Onyx with a view, in conjunction with long/short entry price levels and volatility analysis to identify potential continuation or reversal trends.
In this edition, we take a look at the Jul’25 Gasoline Arb (RBOB – EBOB).
This report reviews weekly oil inventory data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report, Global Insights’ ARA Independent Storage and International Enterprise’s Singapore product storage
See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
This report reviews the key data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Onyx’s in-house CTA positioning model determines the net positioning of CTAs in a range of futures benchmarks. In the week ending 6 June, CTA net short positions became less negative in crude oil futures (Brent and WTI) alongside refined product futures (gasoil and heating oil). Brent and WTI futures saw a small net change in the week to -20.46k lots and -12.36k lots, respectively. Brent increased by under 8k lots and WTI rose by just shy of 12k lots. In the products, RBOB net positioning remains negative, seeing next to no net change, at -7.8k lots. On the other hand, both heating oil and gasoil saw strong weekly increases to become less negative at -14.1k lots and -10.8k lots.
This report covers the correlation in daily returns (on different rolling window periods) between the main energy contracts listed on the ICE and NYMEX exchange and the S&P 500 and the DXY dollar index.
Click below to explore our new Refinery Margins Report, offering a clear, detailed analysis of weekly and monthly shifts in key regional refinery margins. This report enables readers to pinpoint where margins are tightening or loosening across regions, drawing on proprietary yields and our leading market share in swaps to build a world class financial refinery margin—essential for understanding the evolving landscape of regional refinery economics.
Click below to explore our ETFs report, providing a detailed analysis of price movements, trading volume, and counterparty shifts in ETF underlyings, along with open interest trends in the options market. Featured funds include USO, SCO, UCO, KOLD, BOIL, and UNG. For each ETF, we offer a comprehensive breakdown of price trends, volume, open interest, and key market participants.
In this publication, we leverage Onyx’s proprietary Commitment of Traders data in order to identify changes in swap Open Interest and Positioning against Onyx with a view, in conjunction with long/short entry price levels and volatility analysis to identify potential continuation or reversal trends.
In this edition, we take a look at the Q3’25 Sing 380 crack.
In this publication, we leverage Onyx’s proprietary Commitment of Traders data in order to identify changes in swap Open Interest and Positioning against Onyx with a view, in conjunction with long/short entry price levels and volatility analysis to identify potential continuation or reversal trends.
In this edition, we take a look at the Jul’25 Naphtha East/West.
This report reviews weekly oil inventory data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report, Global Insights’ ARA Independent Storage and International Enterprise’s Singapore product storage
See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
This report reviews the key data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report
When there was no commitment of traders data, technical analysts looked for a workaround to infer overall position changes in the market. The analysis tests joint changes in a futures contract’s price and open interest to determine whether long or short positions were being added or whether long or short positions were covered. These outcomes are illustrated in Table 1 below.
To build our series, we test the conditions in Table 1 below and then qualify the change as one of the four outcomes. We then count the number of occurrences of each outcome in a lookback period to give the percentage of each outcome. The four outcomes over the lookback period always add up to 100%. The look-back period rolls over daily. Table 2 shows the price implications of the four outcomes. Tables 3 and 4 illustrate Open Interest, Volume and Price relations and Open Interest, respectively.
This report aims to provide a position index for energy futures between -50 and 50, with 0 as the neutral position. The full methodology is at the back of the report. When the position index is at the extremes, above 40 or below -40, the market is overstretched relative to its average position in the previous 3-year rolling window. As such, it is ripe for mean reversion. Consequently, when the index is high, deleveraging will follow, having a negative impact on price, while when the index is low, we expect accumulation that will push the price higher.
Update to Onyx Global Oil Balance: this update’s key revision revolves around supply, with lower non-OPEC supply growth in 2025 and an upward readjustment in Iraqi crude production following methodological changes by Petro-Logistics SA. Following a comprehensive review of Iraq’s crude balance, Petro-Logistics SA has reclassified “other” refinery feedstocks as crude oil, accounting for most of the revision in the country’s output.
This report contains Onyx Advisory’s Global Oil Liquids Balance, with projections of world oil supply (including OPEC crude oil production) and world oil demand to derive implied global oil stock changes by quarter.
The report is split into two parts: a detailed global balance on page 3 and a summary balance on page 4, which shows individual OPEC country crude production assumptions over the forecast period. The OPEC crude production level is contrasted with the ‘Call on OPEC’ crude to obtain the implied global stock change.
Historical data are sourced from the IEA, while Petro-logistics SA data are used for OPEC crude production.
Click below to explore our new Refinery Margins Report, offering a clear, detailed analysis of weekly and monthly shifts in key regional refinery margins. This report enables readers to pinpoint where margins are tightening or loosening across regions, drawing on proprietary yields and our leading market share in swaps to build a world class financial refinery margin—essential for understanding the evolving landscape of regional refinery economics.
This report covers the correlation in daily returns (on different rolling window periods) between the main energy contracts listed on the ICE and NYMEX exchange and the S&P 500 and the DXY dollar index.
Click below to explore our ETFs report, providing a detailed analysis of price movements, trading volume, and counterparty shifts in ETF underlyings, along with open interest trends in the options market. Featured funds include USO, SCO, UCO, KOLD, BOIL, and UNG. For each ETF, we offer a comprehensive breakdown of price trends, volume, open interest, and key market participants.
In this publication, we leverage Onyx’s proprietary Commitment of Traders data in order to identify changes in swap Open Interest and Positioning against Onyx with a view, in conjunction with long/short entry price levels and volatility analysis to identify potential continuation or reversal trends.
In this edition, we take a look at the Jun’25 380 E/W.
In this publication, we leverage Onyx’s proprietary Commitment of Traders data in order to identify changes in swap Open Interest and Positioning against Onyx with a view, in conjunction with long/short entry price levels and volatility analysis to identify potential continuation or reversal trends.
In this edition, we take a look at the Jul’25 northwest Europe (NWE) naphtha crack.
This report reviews the key data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report
See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
When there was no commitment of traders data, technical analysts looked for a workaround to infer overall position changes in the market. The analysis tests joint changes in a futures contract’s price and open interest to determine whether long or short positions were being added or whether long or short positions were covered. These outcomes are illustrated in Table 1 below.
To build our series, we test the conditions in Table 1 below and then qualify the change as one of the four outcomes. We then count the number of occurrences of each outcome in a lookback period to give the percentage of each outcome. The four outcomes over the lookback period always add up to 100%. The look-back period rolls over daily. Table 2 shows the price implications of the four outcomes. Tables 3 and 4 illustrate Open Interest, Volume and Price relations and Open Interest, respectively.
This report aims to provide a position index for energy futures between -50 and 50, with 0 as the neutral position. The full methodology is at the back of the report. When the position index is at the extremes, above 40 or below -40, the market is overstretched relative to its average position in the previous 3-year rolling window. As such, it is ripe for mean reversion. Consequently, when the index is high, deleveraging will follow, having a negative impact on price, while when the index is low, we expect accumulation that will push the price higher.
This report compares and contrasts the Bloomberg survey of ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI forecast to their high/low range as well the forward curve
This report covers the correlation in daily returns (on different rolling window periods) between the main energy contracts listed on the ICE and NYMEX exchange and the S&P 500 and the DXY dollar index.
In this publication, we leverage Onyx’s proprietary Commitment of Traders data in order to identify changes in swap Open Interest and Positioning against Onyx with a view, in conjunction with long/short entry price levels and volatility analysis to identify potential continuation or reversal trends.
In this edition, we take a look at the Jun’25 gasoline E/W.
This report reviews weekly oil inventory data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report, Global Insights’ ARA Independent Storage and International Enterprise’s Singapore product storage
See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
This report reviews the key data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report
When there was no commitment of traders data, technical analysts looked for a workaround to infer overall position changes in the market. The analysis tests joint changes in a futures contract’s price and open interest to determine whether long or short positions were being added or whether long or short positions were covered. These outcomes are illustrated in Table 1 below.
To build our series, we test the conditions in Table 1 below and then qualify the change as one of the four outcomes. We then count the number of occurrences of each outcome in a lookback period to give the percentage of each outcome. The four outcomes over the lookback period always add up to 100%. The look-back period rolls over daily. Table 2 shows the price implications of the four outcomes. Tables 3 and 4 illustrate Open Interest, Volume and Price relations and Open Interest, respectively.
This report aims to provide a position index for energy futures between -50 and 50, with 0 as the neutral position. The full methodology is at the back of the report. When the position index is at the extremes, above 40 or below -40, the market is overstretched relative to its average position in the previous 3-year rolling window. As such, it is ripe for mean reversion. Consequently, when the index is high, deleveraging will follow, having a negative impact on price, while when the index is low, we expect accumulation that will push the price higher.
This report covers the correlation in daily returns (on different rolling window periods) between the main energy contracts listed on the ICE and NYMEX exchange and the S&P 500 and the DXY dollar index.
The Aug’25 Brent futures fell to $73.92/bbl before bouncing back to $74.95/bbl. Prices fell for the rest of the afernoon to $73.49/bbl at 17:45 BST (time of writing). In the news, The IEA stated it was prepared to release oil from emergency reserves if Israel’s attack on Iran caused significant market disruptions. The agency emphasized that global supplies remained stable, with 1.2B barrels available in strategic reserves. OPEC sharply criticized the IEA’s remarks, accusing it of stoking unnecessary fear and insisting there was no need for such measures. While Iran’s energy infrastructure hasn’t been hit, markets remain anxious about potential escalation, particularly risks to the Strait of Hormuz or a repeat of the 2019 drone attacks on Saudi facilities. Analysts warn future price trends will depend on whether Iran targets regional energy infrastructure in retaliation. In other news, analysts at Goldman Sachs and Citi believe Israel’s strikes on Iran are unlikely to significantly disrupt global oil supply. Goldman has raised its geopolitical risk premium but still expects Brent and WTI prices to fall to $59/bbl – $55/bbl in Q4 2025, and $56/bbl – $52/bbl in 2026. Citi echoed this, saying sustained high prices are unlikely. However, Goldman warned that a worst-case scenario involving a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could push prices above $100/bbl. Finally, the front-month Aug/Sep and the 6-month Aug/Feb’26 spreads are at $1.39/bbl and $4.52/bbl respectively.
The Aug’25 Brent futures contract gapped up overnight, firstly to $74.19/bbl then gapped up again to $77.72/bbl atround 04:00 BST. Prices fell in the morning to $73.36/bbl at 08:09 BTS before bouncing back to $75.16/bbl at 11:30 BST (time of writing). This price surges comes after Israel launched widespread strikes on Iran, targeting nuclear sites, missile factories, and top military commanders in an effort to prevent Tehran from developing a nuclear weapon. Iran retaliated with about 100 drones aimed at Israel, most of which were reportedly intercepted. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei vowed harsh retribution. In other news, Energean has temporarily halted production from its power FPSO offshore northern Israel following orders from Israel’s Ministry of Energy. The company, which operates in Israel, Egypt, and Europe, notified customers and stakeholders of the suspension. The FPSO is a significant contributor to Energean’s total output. The Trump administration appears unlikely to back the EU’s push to lower the G7-led price cap on Russian oil from $60/bbl to $45/bbl, though options remain for both sides to pressure Moscow. Russian oil exports hit a seven-month high in May, complicating enforcement. The EU may still act unilaterally, proposing a refined product ban and tighter enforcement. Experts say tougher US sanctions on major Russian firms could be a stronger tool. Finally the front-month Aug/Sep spread is at $1.50/bbl and the 6-month Aug/Feb’26 spread is at $4.85/bbl.
The drums of war are rolling across the Middle East again. Israel bombed Iran. The signs were there to see, from the pull out of American personnel from the embassy in Iraq to persistent buying of high strike call options and rising flat price ahead of the actual strikes. But some of us felt reason would prevail – big error in thinking – that nothing of significance would happen on the TACO Thursday night Washington/Friday the 13th in other areas of the world. Iran is a big place and it would take a massive effort to move the needle, so we felt the action would not happen because any pinprick would be futile.
The gasoline market remains broadly bearish, with front-month European cracks under pressure and participants showing little urgency to add length. Jul’25 EBOB cracks fell to $14.50/bbl, their lowest level since late April. The Jul/Aug/Sep EBOB fly weakened further to -$5.50/mt, reflecting strong selling in the front, including from trade houses and refiners. Open interest in Jul’25 EBOB swaps is elevated at 160% above the 5-year average and have surpassed the 5-year high. Arbs bounced modestly on short covering after a supply-led sell-off, but selling returned on 11 June with trade houses adding over 1mb. The East/West structure firmed but eased slightly to -$5.25/bbl as trade houses took profit. The Eastern market is comparatively more constructive, with refiners defending length and the Pertamina tender prompting a bullish reaction in front 92 spreads. Still, concerns persist as 92 cracks struggle to break $10/bbl, while gasnaph selling exerts additional downward pressure. While there’s strong open interest building into Q1’26, particularly in gasnaphs and East/West, Q4 positioning and prompt demand remain soft. Overall, the gasoline complex lacks a near-term bullish catalyst, and with export outlets constrained and hurricane season still ahead, bulls remain cautious.
Price action never lies, and renewed fears of geopolitical risk in the Middle East saw Brent flirt with 70, with prices reaching their highest level since OPEC+ first announced their output hike.
Everyone took a breath! Flat price cooled from its flirtation with $70, descending through the European morning towards $68.50 by lunchtime. Team America didn’t want to miss out on the bullish fun, though and the afternoon saw it back up above $69 and having another punt at $70! The structure had a relatively muted response to yesterday evening’s assault on the 70 handle but post-close it skyrocketed to near $1! The strongest we’ve seen since April, excluding expiry wackiness at the May roll. Having flirted with contango for a while, the Dec/Jan spread is now at a robust 20c!
The Aug’25 Brent futures contract rallied this afternoon from $68.45/bbl at 13:00 BST to $69.80/bbl at 17:00 BST before softening to $69.50/bbl at 17:15 BST (time of writing). US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said it’s “unlikely” oil production will fall next year, pushing back on a government forecast predicting a decline. In a Bloomberg interview, Wright said the outlook depends on oil prices and whether companies cut investment as planned. The Energy Information Administration on Tuesday projected the first production drop since 2021. South Sudan has resumed oil exports through Sudan after repairing a pipeline damaged by an airstrike. Petroleum official Deng Lual Wol confirmed on June 10 that shipments have restarted, crediting the swift fix to efforts by South Sudanese leaders, Sudanese authorities, and oil companies. President Donald Trump voiced frustration over rising oil prices, “I don’t like – the oil prices have gone up just a little bit over the last few days,” Trump said at a White House event. “It’s gonna keep going down a little bit, right? Because we have inflation under control.”. Finally, the front-month Aug/Sep and the 6-month Aug/Feb’26 spreads are at $0.91/bbl and $2.86/bbl, respectively.
The market’s twitchy! There are lots of itchy small fingers hovering ominously over big red buttons. But it is Taco Thursday, so don’t worry! The buy button was in hot demand as Brent surged – and $70 was so close it could almost taste it! It peaked at $69.92/bbl but failed to get a hold on the elusive handle – it would have been the first time since 3 April, just after Trump barged into the world economy with a huge machete on ‘Liberation Day’. While Brent failed to breach $70, GME reported Oman futures trading at $70.20 early in Singapore! Crude oil outside of the Strait of Hormuz is particularly tasty in the event of an almighty mess. Imagine the impact of gasoline for the summer driving season in the US. But we really hope cooler heads prevail and respect the sovereignty of countries, while doing what is best at home!
The Aug’25 Brent futures contract bounced around $69/bbl, before falling to $68.68/bbl at 10:35 BST. Prices then softened further to $68.63/bbl at 11:31 BST (time of writing). In the news, US has evacuated non-government personnel from several Middle Eastern countries due to heightened tensions. Despite this, foreign energy companies are continuing normal operations in Iraq, according to a senior Iraqi official. The Iraqi oil ministry has not been notified of any staff reductions by energy firms, the official added. In other news, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright dismissed EIA projections of a 2026 decline in US oil output, saying current weak prices may slow drilling slightly but likely won’t reduce overall production. The EIA expects output to drop from 13.5 mb/d in mid-2025 to 13.3 mb/d in 2026, citing low prices and shale exhaustion. Wright told Bloomberg it’s too early to confirm a downturn. Cenovus Energy announced on Jun 12 that it has resumed production at its Christina Lake oil sands facility in Alberta after a temporary shutdown caused by nearby wildfires. TotalEnergies has partnered with French AI startup Mistral to develop digital tools aimed at improving industrial efficiency, cutting emissions, and enhancing customer support. The collaboration focuses on building an AI assistant to help optimize project development and operations. This move supports TotalEnergies’ broader push to integrate AI into its energy business, including past collaborations for wind turbine maintenance, electricity trading, and renewable project planning. Finally, the front-month Aug/Sep spread is at $0.80/bbl and the 6-month Aug/Feb’26 spread is at $2.53/bbl.
In addition to our regular Monday CFTC COT analysis report, Onyx Insight will publish its own in-house CFTC COT forecast ahead of the official Friday report. The model forecasts changes in long and short positions using machine learning, utilising Onyx’s proprietary data.
The Aug’25 Brent futures contract saw a volatile afternoon with prices bouncing between $67.76/bbl and $68.29/bbl. Prices then rallied to $68.35/bbl at 17.30 BST (time of writing). In the news, US crude inventories fell by 3.6 mb in the week to Jun 6 to 432.4 mb, a larger draw than expected, as refinery activity picked up, the EIA reported. Refinery utilization rose to 94.3%, the highest crude intake since December 2019. Gasoline and distillate stocks increased by 1.5 mb and 1.2 mb, respectively, while distillate demand fell to its lowest level since April. Notably, the US recorded no crude imports from Saudi Arabia for the first time since early 2021. In other news, MEG Energy announced that its Christina Lake project in Alberta is ramping back up to full operations after recent wildfires in the region. The company has safely returned all staff and begun restarting Phase 2B, which had been delayed by a wildfire-induced power outage. This phase contributes roughly 70 kb/d of production. In May, wildfires across Alberta disrupted operations for several oil producers, including Canadian Natural Resources and Cenovus Energy. Hokchi Energy, one of Mexico’s top private oil and gas producers, is seeking to change its sale contract to PMI Comercio Internacional, the commercial arm of Pemex, after months of delayed payments from the state energy company. Sources say Pemex owes Hokchi over $300 million, though official disclosures show much lower amounts. The request to amend the contract has been denied twice, most recently by Mexico’s energy minister. Finally, the front-month Aug/Sep and the 6-month Aug/Feb’26 spreads are at $0.75/bbl and $2.46/bbl respectively.
The dip didn’t last long. Trump’s pessimism on Iran and optimism on China had Brent bounding up to the $68 level again, breaking above there for the first time since 23 April! 55% tariffs on Chinese imports into the US and 10% tariffs on China’s imports of US goods. Americans should feel so grateful that now they get to pay 55% more for the Chinese products they import while the Chinese people equally should feel grateful they only pay ten percent more for what they import from America! Let me ask y’all who got the better deal when you buy your next TV? While Brent reacted, other markets quietly sat on their hands, digesting the announcement: equities ebbed and flowed and the DXY only wilted marginally. The first of many? Lutnick assured us of “deal after deal” next week – but he’s not one to under-promise, having said the same many times before… Lunatic times!
It’s more important than ever to be fluent in reading tea leaves and consulting the stars or coffee grounds to understand where the market’s going. With so much up in the air at the minute, the market is unsure which way to go: trading off scraps of clues coming out of the US-China trade talks is tricky game, while Iran and the US contradict themselves in their public and private statements. A “framework” for US-China trade is a good start, but it’s nothing for the market to work with. In whatever analysis, you or we are making, take into consideration TACO as well as a growing reluctance for any self-respecting country to just give
in. This means that the global growth rate will be lower than expected with energy crimped slightly. A trading source expected the adjusted growth rate pre import/exports accounting to go negative, job losses to mount and industrial activity to decline.
The Aug25 Brent futures contract fell off slightly to $66.54/bbl at 10:12 BST before rallying to $67.75/bbl at 11: 35 BST(time of writing). In the news, the Kremlin criticised the European Commission’s proposal to lower the G7 price cap on Russian oil from $60/bbl to $45/bbl, calling it illegal and unhelpful for global energy market stability. The proposal aims to further cut Russia’s energy revenues ahead of a G7 leaders’ meeting in Canada. While Russia’s crude exports remain strong, mostly to China and India, Western enforcement gaps have allowed shipping services to resume. In other news, OPEC Secretary-General Haitham Al Ghais said this week that global crude oil demand will continue rising until at least 2050, with a projected 24% cumulative increase driven by population growth. Speaking at the Canadian Global Energy Show, he dismissed the idea of peak oil demand and warned against underinvestment in oil and gas, estimating $17.4 T is needed over the next 25 years. This contrasts with the IEA’s slower growth forecast of less than 1mb/d. Shell plans to add up to 12 mmt of LNG capacity by 2030 through projects already under construction in Canada, Qatar, Nigeria, and the UAE. Shell expects 60% of new LNG supply by 2030 to come from the US and Qatar, with demand driven by Asia and sectors difficult to electrify. Shell forecasts global LNG demand to rise 60% by 2040. Finally the front-month Aug/Sep spread is at $0.78/bbl and the 6-month Aug/Feb’26 spread is at $2.35/bbl.
In this podcast, our Onyx Commodities Head of Trading Desks discuss the latest trends and developments in the oil, gas, power and carbon markets in which Onyx Commodities trades. This episode was recorded on Tuesday,10 June 2025, at 11:30 a.m.
The window’s been chaotic of late and today continued to be busy, though somewhat more orderly. BP led the charge on the sellside, lowering offers for both Midland and CIF Forties. It was the Midland that attracted buying interest, as Totsa swept in to lift the offer for 22-26 June at Dated +$1.25, while PetroIneos picked up Vitol’s offer at $1.95 over Dated for 3-7 July – that’s a steep curve!
The M1 Brent futures contract recorded more support this week, climbing from a weekly nadir of $64.50/bbl on 3 Jun to $67.45/bbl at the time of writing on 10 Jun, its highest level since 23 April.
The Aug’25 Brent futures contract slightly fell off to $67.13/bbl before rallying to $67.95/bbl at 16:35 BST. Prices have since softened to $67.47/bbl at 17:45 BST (time of writing). In the news, US-China trade talks continue in London, President Trump described the discussions as positive, fuelling market confidence. Irving Oil has begun a $100 million upgrade of the fluid catalytic cracking unit at its St. John refinery in New Brunswick, Canada’s largest refinery with a capacity of 320kb/d. The project aims to enhance the facility’s ability to produce gasoline and diesel, and is expected to create 675 construction jobs. New permitting guidelines for wastewater disposal wells in Texas are expected to raise costs for oil producers. The rules aim to limit injection pressures and volumes to prevent produced water from contaminating freshwater sources, particularly in the Permian Basin. These changes could increase water disposal costs by 20–30% in parts of the Delaware sub-basin, where water-to-oil ratios are high and seismic activity has grown due to heavy injection volumes. In other news, ADNOC Gas has approved a $5B investment for the first phase of its Rich Gas Development Project, aiming to expand processing capacity and efficiency at its onshore and offshore facilities. Contracts were awarded to UK firms Wood Group, Petrofac, and Kent. Finally the front-month Aug/Sep and 6-monht Aug/Feb’26 spreads are at $0.80/bbl and $2.31/bbl respectively.
Well, the bull run did happen, and it was the perfect storm. Peak summer demand. Backwardated prompt spreads. Refineries are back from maintenance. Gold rush. The Dated structure saw a good rally with Total bidding the physical, and the June and July DFLs surpassed $1/bbl, and the bulls were rewarded for their patience, with the recent run likely funding their summer holidays. The rally was well telegraphed, but we do not think the rally has a further leg up, and hold a cautiously bearish view in the short term as the bulls fade out. The 16-20 Jun week is implied at nearly $1/bbl in the physical, but the bulls are in no rush, with the market seemingly happy with the $0.80/bbl level in the physical differential. Despite continued bids from Total and friends, we see this as an attempt to support the physical, rather than to push it higher. Whilst strong buying in the paper was seen on 6 June, it was not by the players with the ability to move the physical. With prompt weeks implying higher than the physical, rolls could roll down and see selling into pricing.
In the week ending 6 June 2025, exchange traded futures volumes in Brent, Gasoil, Heating Oil, RBOB and WTI increased across the board w/w. With all instruments seeing steep rises in volumes, especially in September and October, with most
notable ones, Heating Oil (over 81% and 96% respectively). For Brent, it was the September contract volumes that had the largest increase (over 39%), whereas in WTI, the August futures soared the most (over 60%).
The Aug’25 Brent crude futures reached a daily low of $66.95/bbl at 08:45 BST before it was more supported to $67.25/bbl at 11:30 BST (time of writing). The European Commission is planning to propose a fresh set of sanctions against Russia, which includes a reduction in the oil price cap and a prohibition on using the Nord Stream infrastructure, according to a report by the Financial Times. The proposed sanctions package will see the current oil price cap, from $60/bbl, to $45/bbl. Nigeria and Saudi Aramco are struggling to reach an agreement on a record $5 billion oil-backed loan after a recent decline in crude prices sparked concern among banks that were expected to back the deal, four sources told Reuters. The facility would be Nigeria’s largest oil-backed loan to date and Saudi Arabia’s first participation of this scale in the country, although the decline in oil price could shrink the size of the deal, the sources said. Nigeria’s President Bola Tinubu, two of the sources said, first broached the loan in November when he met with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Riyadh at the Saudi-African Summit. Iraq’s total oil exports to Greece surpassed $5 billion in 2024. Iraq supplied almost nine million tons of crude oil to Greece, valued at $5.41 billion, with a 21% annual growth rate between 2020-24, Shafaq News reported. According to the figures, Iraq exported 8.2 million mt of crude oil to Greece, totalling $4.59 billion. It also exported 1.52 million mt of oil derivatives, totalling $812 million. Japanese refinery, Taiyo Oil, announced that it has purchased its first batch of Sakhalin Blend crude oil from Russia in over two years. Finally, the front (Aug/Sep) and 6-month (Aug/Feb) Brent futures spreads are at $0.81/bbl and $2.26/bbl, respectively.
It’s allocation day! And no huge surprises in the July allocations; the Saudis held pretty steady from their June provision to send 47 mil bbl to Chinese refiners in July. Within that, there was some chopping and changing as Unipec and PetroChina got slightly larger allotments, while Rongsheng lost 1 mil bbl – but the ‘teapot’ (bigger than most global refineries) by far the largest share! Allocations for May hit a record since the start of The Officials at 48 mil bbl – the highest since July 2024 allocations – while the June and July allocations occupy second and third spots, respectively.
Flat price keeps going! $67 was a tempting target as Brent climbed this morning, stretching out its fingers to reach that elusive level. It brushed $67 at 13:45 BST and another during the window, but failed to gain a toehold and came to the European close at $66.92/bbl. We’ve been bullish for a few weeks now and the market’s finally waking up to the fact OPEC quota hikes don’t equate to supply increases.
The Aug’25 Brent futures contract fell to $66.32/bbl at 14:36 BST before rallying to $67.06/bbl. Prices have since softened to $66.63/bbl at 17:40 BST (time of writing). In the news, OPEC’s oil output rose by 150 kb/d in May, reaching 26.75 mb/d, according to a Reuters survey. The rise was limited as Iraq cut production to compensate for earlier overproduction. Saudi Arabia saw the largest increase at 130 kb/d, still 100kb/d below its quota. Overall, the five OPEC nations involved in the May agreement raised output by 180 kb/d, below the planned 310kb/d due to offsetting compensation cuts. In other news, California’s fuel imports surged to 279 kb/d in May, the highest since 2021, as refinery outages and declining in-state capacity drove the state to rely more heavily on imports, especially from Asia and atypical sources like the Bahamas and India. Imports from South Korea and other Asian countries made up nearly 70% of May volumes, while Bahamas shipments hit a record 38kb/d. Refinery closures and supply crunches are shifting California toward long-term import dependency, raising fuel costs. Kenya plans to begin commercial crude oil production and exports in 2026, according to Energy Cabinet Secretary Opiyo Wandayi. This development hinges on the finalization of Gulf Energy Ltd’s acquisition of Tullow Oil’s assets in the country, including the long-stalled South Lokichar Basin project. The field is expected to produce between 60kb/d and 100kb/d, with an estimated 560 mb recoverable over a 25-year period. The project could position Kenya as a new oil exporter and boost its standing in the global energy market. Finally the front-month Aug/Sep spread is at $0.73/bbl and the 6-month Aug/Feb’26 spread is at $1.89/bbl.
Another week brings another selection of new trade ideas from Onyx Research, this time looking at trades in Crude and Distillate swaps. Our weekly Onyx Alpha report presents speculative and hedging trades based on technical analysis and data-driven tradecraft methods on Onyx Commitment of Traders (COT) and Flux Financials data.
London Calling Last week, the front-month Brent futures contract recorded its first w/w increase in three weeks, with the contract closing above $66/bbl for the first time since 26 April. At the time of writing, the M1 Brent futures contract
Some OSPs bring joy, others bring pain. Joy for consumers ready to gobble up cheap crude, against pain of producers squeezed by low prices. The Murban/Dubai debacle had ADNOC up in arms, frustrated its ‘most valuable’ grade was setting the benchmark, pricing below the heavier, sourer Upper Zakum. For July, Murban is set at $63.62/bbl, down over 4 bucks from June pricing, with Upper Zakum set at a 10c premium, Das at Murban -55c and Umm Lulu at Murban +15c. The 10c UZ/Murban inversion is minor stuff compared to the downward flat price correction. This is real money! Imagine you produce 4 mil b/d and export 3 mil b/d, (this is just illustrative) but this would mean $12 million less revenue per day or $360 mil less per month. We’ll be talking billions if the market doesn’t recover and persistent overproduction continues. You cannot overproduce and have no price impact. In other words: you can’t have your cake and eat it!
The Aug’25 Brent crude futures opened at $66.40/bbl on Monday morning, found support at $66.10/bbl and climbed to $66.60/bbl by 11:00 BST (time of writing). In the news, Venezuela plans a 50% fuel price hike to $0.75/litre as it scrambles to offset lost oil revenue following the exit of Chevron and other foreign operators. China’s daily crude oil imports fell to their lowest level in four months during May, following increases in March and April mid a downward price trend. Iran is set to respond to a new US nuclear proposal on Monday, amid heightened tensions following an IAEA report on Iranian implosion tests and Tehran’s claims of acquiring sensitive Israeli intelligence. The U.S. expects Russia’s full retaliation for Ukraine’s recent drone attack to be a large-scale, multi-pronged strike involving missiles and drones, with symbolic targets likely. The U.S. and China are set to resume trade talks in London focused on rare earths and advanced tech, aiming to revive stalled agreements and ease tensions amid mutual economic pressures and strategic rivalry. Finally, the front (Aug/Sep) and 6-month (Aug/Feb) Brent futures spreads are at $0.73/bbl and $1.89/bbl respectively.
In the week ending 3 June, crude oil futures (Brent and WTI) saw a rangebound performance. Money managers increased their length for the fifth consecutive week, rising by 41.1mb (+9%), with overall long positions sitting at their highest level since early April. Meanwhile, shorts declined by 7.2mb (-3%), driven by liquidations in WTI. The long:short ratio increased from 2.18:1.00 to 2.46:1.00, and sits at the 18th percentile for all weeks since 2013. Combined open interest fell by 32mb over the week (-0.7%), but levels are 9% higher than the start of the year.
Various factors have weighed on crude sentiment, resulting in a bullish tone from money managers. OPEC+ has stated its intention to continue its output hike in July, raising production by 411kb/d, which was in line with market expectations. There is a clear focus on market share, which likely largely benefits Saudi Arabia. There were rumours of an even larger unwind on the Friday before OPEC’s weekend meeting, so the announcement placated fears of further oversupply.
On the 81st anniversary of D-Day, the North Sea was sombrely quiet and there was not a great battle among the traders. But the longs were definitely winning in the flat price front. Brent hit triple six for a while, $66.6+ something. The window players look fatigued after a busy week; Totsa and Mercuria were back, bidding for Midland yet again, bringing bids of +$1.45 and +$1.65 over dated. The sellside was also populated by the usual suspects, as BP and Phillips offered again, bringing +$2.00 and +$2.10 over dated to the table. But neither side wanted to budge much further, and no one traded.
The Aug’25 Brent futures contract strengthened from $65.25/bbl around 13:00 BST this afternoon to $66.48/bbl at 14:40 BST, where it met resistance. Despite finding resistance at this level again at around 15:40 BST, the M1 futures contract ultimately climbed to $66.60/bbl at 17:40 BST (time of writing).
In High Sulphur Fuel Oil (HSFO), Singapore 380 cst recorded a volatile fortnight, with the Bal-Jun’25 380 East/West (Singapore 380 cst vs 3.5% Rotterdam barges) was sold off from a high of $24.75/mt on 23 May to a low of $9.25/mt on 2 Jun, where it met support and rallied to $27.50/mt on 4 Jun due to buying from Chinese players and Singaporean trade houses
Aug ’25 Brent futures slumped overnight to reach $64.90/bbl at 08.30 BST before rising to $65.35/bbl at 11.30 BST (time of writing). Prices are on track for the first weekly gain in three weeks. Equinor has announced Norway’s Mongstad oil refinery is ramping up its output following an outage. China’s consumer inflation eased in March, with the CPI down 0.1% y/y, an improvement from February’s 0.7% drop, and core CPI rose 0.5%, hinting at recovering demand. Food prices fell less sharply, and the monthly CPI decline was linked to ample food supply, off-season travel, and lower oil prices. However, factory-gate prices continued to weaken, as the Producer Price Index (PPI) dropped 2.5%y/y, pointing to ongoing pressure on industrial demand. Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) has reportedly signed at least nine new agreements with foreign service providers, including two Chinese companies, to maintain oil production and sustain foreign currency inflows following the exit of Chevron due to US sanctions. The companies involved include Aldyl Argentina, Anhui Guangda Mining Investing and China Concord Resources, according to internal PDVSA documents reviewed by Bloomberg. According to the document, PDVSA predicts that the nine blocks under these 20-year contracts will yield a combined 600kb/d with $20bn (1.97trn bolivars) in capital expenditure. In April, Spain halted crude oil imports from Venezuela ahead of the US sanctions deadline set by the Trump administration. Repsol had been receiving Venezuelan oil from PDVSA as debt repayment but was ordered to wind down operations by May 27. The move followed a surge in imports earlier in 2024. Finally, the front-month Aug/Sep spread is $0.61/bbl, and the 6-month Aug/Feb ’26 spread is $1.50/bbl.
Rome is burning! Brutus, Cassius, Judas… they’re all out for revenge. The knives are out and everything’s fair game! Reality TV soap operas can’t come close to this level of drama. We wouldn’t blame the US’ global rivals for warming their feet by the fire with a massive bucket of popcorn watching this one go down. The political schism is of monumental scale and could rip the American political scene asunder! As chaos engulfs the US political scene, oil remains largely unchanged, with August Brent still firmly anchored to $65, on a steady downtrend through today’s Asian session.
Unbearably Bearish would aptly describe the naphtha market, as sentiment deteriorated while weakness filtered into the cracks. There is an expectation of more supply coming online as refineries come out of maintenance, while petrochemical demand remains weak. The front NWE crack capitulated and fell below -$5/bbl, while the Bal-Jun/Jul NWE spread fell to $2.50/mt amid intense selling flows from trade houses and majors. Even BP’s CDU outage at its Rotterdam refinery failed to spark bullish appetite, as buying was easily sold into. bearish momentum is accelerating in the naphtha cracks. Here, short positioned players are comfortably in the money, with an average entry level of around -$4/bbl. Nonetheless, we suggest caution with open interest levels above 5-year highs, and an overcrowded short market could be vulnerable to bullish catalysts.
