Our latest energy derivatives stories across the World.
In this publication, we leverage Onyx’s proprietary Commitment of Traders data in order to identify changes in swap Open Interest and Positioning against Onyx with a view, in conjunction with long/short entry price levels and volatility analysis to identify potential continuation or reversal trends.
In this edition, we take a look at the Sep’25 NWE Naphtha Crack.
In this publication, we leverage Onyx’s proprietary Commitment of Traders data in order to identify changes in swap Open Interest and Positioning against Onyx with a view, in conjunction with long/short entry price levels and volatility analysis to identify potential continuation or reversal trends. In this edition, we take a look at the Sep’25 Singapore 380 cst crack.
This report reviews weekly oil inventory data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report, Global Insights’ ARA Independent Storage and International Enterprise’s Singapore product storage
See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
This report reviews the key data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report
This report examines the distribution of open interest over a selected range of strikes for exchange-listed options on ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI
This report aims to provide a position index for energy futures between -50 and 50, with 0 as the neutral position. The full methodology is at the back of the report. When the position index is at the extremes, above 40 or below -40, the market is overstretched relative to its average position in the previous 3-year rolling window. As such, it is ripe for mean reversion. Consequently, when the index is high, deleveraging will follow, having a negative impact on price, while when the index is low, we expect accumulation that will push the price higher.
When there was no commitment of traders data, technical analysts looked for a workaround to infer overall position changes in the market. The analysis tests joint changes in a futures contract’s price and open interest to determine whether long or short positions were being added or whether long or short positions were covered. These outcomes are illustrated in Table 1 below.
To build our series, we test the conditions in Table 1 below and then qualify the change as one of the four outcomes. We then count the number of occurrences of each outcome in a lookback period to give the percentage of each outcome. The four outcomes over the lookback period always add up to 100%. The look-back period rolls over daily. Table 2 shows the price implications of the four outcomes. Tables 3 and 4 illustrate Open Interest, Volume and Price relations and Open Interest, respectively.
Update to Onyx Global Oil Balance: this update’s key revision revolves around supply, with lower non-OPEC supply growth in 2025 and an upward readjustment in Iraqi crude production following methodological changes by Petro-Logistics SA. Following a comprehensive review of Iraq’s crude balance, Petro-Logistics SA has reclassified “other” refinery feedstocks as crude oil, accounting for most of the revision in the country’s output.
This report contains Onyx Advisory’s Global Oil Liquids Balance, with projections of world oil supply (including OPEC crude oil production) and world oil demand to derive implied global oil stock changes by quarter.
The report is split into two parts: a detailed global balance on page 3 and a summary balance on page 4, which shows individual OPEC country crude production assumptions over the forecast period. The OPEC crude production level is contrasted with the ‘Call on OPEC’ crude to obtain the implied global stock change.
Historical data are sourced from the IEA, while Petro-logistics SA data are used for OPEC crude production.
Onyx’s in-house CTA positioning model determines the net positioning of CTAs in a range of futures benchmarks. CTA net long positioning increased in Brent and WTI futures, amid a stopping out of short positioning and addition to long positions, with net length in Brent rising from -5.8k lots on 25 Jul to +10k lots on 1 Aug. Net long positioning in WTI futures rose from -6k lots on 25 Jul to +6.5k lotson 1 Aug. Interestingly, however, our model anticipates a removal of these positions on 4 Aug, with the projected net length for Brent and WTI futures sitting at 5.2k lots and 4k lots, respectively. Similarly, RBOB futures also recorded a shift from net short to net long positioning, with CTA net length climbing from -3k lots on 25 Jul to +10k lots on 1 Aug, but this is projected to ease to 4.8k lots on 4 Aug. Meanwhile, the middle distillates complex recorded a circa 20% decline in net long positioning to 4.4k lots in ICE gasoil and 9k lots in NYMEX heating oil. Net positioning is projected to continue to pull back in both contracts on 4 Aug.
Click below to explore our ETFs report, providing a detailed analysis of price movements, trading volume, and counterparty shifts in ETF underlyings, along with open interest trends in the options market. Featured funds include USO, SCO, UCO, KOLD, BOIL, and UNG. For each ETF, we offer a comprehensive breakdown of price trends, volume, open interest, and key market participants.
In the week ending 1 August, refinery margins declined across all tenors, US refineries saw the largest drop in M1 of -3.3 followed by Europe -2 and Asia -1.51.
On a month-on-month basis, margins also declined, M1 US by -4.26, Asia -3.25 and Europe -2.
In the Asian forwards curve, M2 and M3 remain slightly higher than M1. Overall the curve has flattened out but still remains in contango. The higher M2 margins are driven by stronger M2 levels across the cracks, with MOPJ, kerosene, gasoil, and 380 Dubai cracks priced higher over the past month.
The European refinery forward curve is in contango from M1 through M4 and flattens out between M4 and M7. The curve hikes up around M8.
The US refinery forward curve is in flat from M1 through M6 as the front of the curve drops compared to last week’s. Prices jump at M7 where refinery margins improve by 2.13 compared to a week ago.
This report covers the correlation in daily returns (on different rolling window periods) between the main energy contracts listed on the ICE and NYMEX exchange and the S&P 500 and the DXY dollar index.
In this publication, we leverage Onyx’s proprietary Commitment of Traders data in order to identify changes in swap Open Interest and Positioning against Onyx with a view, in conjunction with long/short entry price levels and volatility analysis to identify potential continuation or reversal trends. In this edition, we take a look at the Sep’25 C3 FEI/MOPJ.
In this publication, we leverage Onyx’s proprietary Commitment of Traders data in order to identify changes in swap Open Interest and Positioning against Onyx with a view, in conjunction with long/short entry price levels and volatility analysis to identify potential continuation or reversal trends.
In this edition, we take a look at the Aug/Sep’25 NWE Naphtha Swaps spread.
See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
This report reviews the key data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report
This report aims to provide a position index for energy futures between -50 and 50, with 0 as the neutral position. The full methodology is at the back of the report. When the position index is at the extremes, above 40 or below -40, the market is overstretched relative to its average position in the previous 3-year rolling window. As such, it is ripe for mean reversion. Consequently, when the index is high, deleveraging will follow, having a negative impact on price, while when the index is low, we expect accumulation that will push the price higher.
When there was no commitment of traders data, technical analysts looked for a workaround to infer overall position changes in the market. The analysis tests joint changes in a futures contract’s price and open interest to determine whether long or short positions were being added or whether long or short positions were covered. These outcomes are illustrated in Table 1 below.
To build our series, we test the conditions in Table 1 below and then qualify the change as one of the four outcomes. We then count the number of occurrences of each outcome in a lookback period to give the percentage of each outcome. The four outcomes over the lookback period always add up to 100%. The look-back period rolls over daily. Table 2 shows the price implications of the four outcomes. Tables 3 and 4 illustrate Open Interest, Volume and Price relations and Open Interest, respectively.
Onyx’s in-house CTA positioning model determines the net positioning of CTAs in a range of futures benchmarks. CTAs have gone increasingly net short in WTI, with net positioning declining from -1.1k lots on 18 Jul to -6k lots on 25 Jul. Meanwhile, Brent futures saw a relatively calmer decline of 32% w/w to -5.8k lots on 28 Jul. In refined products, middle distillate fuel oil continues to see net long positioning by CTAs and recorded a relatively stagnant week, with net length coming off by 4% w/w in both Heating Oil and ICE LS Gasoil to +5.8k lots and +10.5k lots, respectively. Finally, RBOB futures saw a remarkable 180% removal in net long positions w/w from +3.8k lots on 18 Jul to -3k lots on 25 Jul.
In the week ending 25 July, refinery margins declined slightly across all tenors, with Asian refineries, seeing the largest descrease.
On a month-on-month basis, margins were relatively unchanged, wit the exception of M1 in Europe and US whcih increased by 1.47 and 2.24 respectively.
In the Asian forwards curve, M2 and M3 remain slightly higher than M1 with the rest of the curve still in contango. The higher M2 margins are driven by stronger M2 levels across the cracks, with MOPJ, kerosene, gasoil, and 380 Dubai cracks priced higher over the past month.
The European refinery forward curve similarly showed a higher-priced M2, with prices further along the curve also elevated, as M9 through M12 traded above M8. This is mainly driven by low M1 margins in the Naphtha Crack.
The US refinery forward curve is in contango from M1 through M7, but prices jump at M8 and remain higher than M7 through to M12.
This report covers the correlation in daily returns (on different rolling window periods) between the main energy contracts listed on the ICE and NYMEX exchange and the S&P 500 and the DXY dollar index.
This report reviews weekly oil inventory data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report, Global Insights’ ARA Independent Storage and International Enterprise’s Singapore product storage
Click below to explore our ETFs report, providing a detailed analysis of price movements, trading volume, and counterparty shifts in ETF underlyings, along with open interest trends in the options market. Featured funds include USO, SCO, UCO, KOLD, BOIL, and UNG. For each ETF, we offer a comprehensive breakdown of price trends, volume, open interest, and key market participants.
In this publication, we leverage Onyx’s proprietary Commitment of Traders data in order to identify changes in swap Open Interest and Positioning against Onyx with a view, in conjunction with long/short entry price levels and volatility analysis to identify potential continuation or reversal trends.
In this edition, we take a look at the Aug’25 Gasoline Arb.
In this publication, we leverage Onyx’s proprietary Commitment of Traders data in order to identify changes in swap Open Interest and Positioning against Onyx with a view, in conjunction with long/short entry price levels and volatility analysis to identify potential continuation or reversal trends. In this edition, we take a look at the Aug’25 MOPJ crack contract.
See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
This report reviews the key data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report
When there was no commitment of traders data, technical analysts looked for a workaround to infer overall position changes in the market. The analysis tests joint changes in a futures contract’s price and open interest to determine whether long or short positions were being added or whether long or short positions were covered. These outcomes are illustrated in Table 1 below.
To build our series, we test the conditions in Table 1 below and then qualify the change as one of the four outcomes. We then count the number of occurrences of each outcome in a lookback period to give the percentage of each outcome. The four outcomes over the lookback period always add up to 100%. The look-back period rolls over daily. Table 2 shows the price implications of the four outcomes. Tables 3 and 4 illustrate Open Interest, Volume and Price relations and Open Interest, respectively.
This report aims to provide a position index for energy futures between -50 and 50, with 0 as the neutral position. The full methodology is at the back of the report. When the position index is at the extremes, above 40 or below -40, the market is overstretched relative to its average position in the previous 3-year rolling window. As such, it is ripe for mean reversion. Consequently, when the index is high, deleveraging will follow, having a negative impact on price, while when the index is low, we expect accumulation that will push the price higher.
Onyx’s in-house CTA positioning model determines the net positioning of CTAs in a range of futures benchmarks. CTA positioning in Brent futures increased by 73% in the week ending 14 Jul, although positioning remains below zero at -1.8k lots. Positioning in WTI futures climbed by a significant 187% w/w, flipping from -2k lots to +1.9k lots in the week ending 14 Jul. In refined fuel, ICE LS gasoil and NYMEX heating oil recorded a 15% and 36% increase w/w, although RBOB futures recorded a 300% increase in this time from -2.4k lots to +4.8k lots.
– In the week ending 18 July, refinery margins declined slightly across all tenors, with the Asian refinery margin remaining almost unchanged in the prompt but weakening systematically down the curve.
– In the prompt, crude and products saw a relatively quiet week, with slight crude weakness and diesel/gasoil strength providing support to margins across regions, with Asian and European margins increasing by $0.03/bbl and $0.48/bbl, respectively.
This report covers the correlation in daily returns (on different rolling window periods) between the main energy contracts listed on the ICE and NYMEX exchange and the S&P 500 and the DXY dollar index.
In this publication, we leverage Onyx’s proprietary Commitment of Traders data in order to identify changes in swap Open Interest and Positioning against Onyx with a view, in conjunction with long/short entry price levels and volatility analysis to identify potential continuation or reversal trends. In this edition, we take a look at the Aug’25 Sing 0.5% Crack.
In this publication, we leverage Onyx’s proprietary Commitment of Traders data in order to identify changes in swap Open Interest and Positioning against Onyx with a view, in conjunction with long/short entry price levels and volatility analysis to identify potential continuation or reversal trends. In this edition, we take a look at the Aug’25 Brent/Dubai contract.
And just as we thought we were having one of the quietest afternoons, boom boom, prices came crashing down! We hope you weren’t long in the early afternoon session! If you are like our European neighbours -here reporting from the UK- who like to take an afternoon nap after lunch, we feel sorry for you, because Brent went for a skydiving session! Don’t get caught napping. Remember, you snooze, you lose! Prices fell from $67.03/bbl all the way down to $65.52/bbl in just 8 minutes. Brent said hasta la vista to the $67 level -for now. The orange man wants cheap oil and he gets it! You can argue with his tactics, but you cannot argue with the end result 🤣.
The Oct’25 Brent crude futures strengthened throughout the day before losing almost a dollar in a minute, to $65.84/bbl at 15.08 BST following the Russia/US talk headline. Prices have corrected to $66.90/bbl by 17.19 BST (time of writing). Washington and Moscow are working on a potential Ukraine peace deal that would formalise Russia’s control over occupied territories, including Crimea and the Donbas region. A summit between President Trump and Putin could occur as early as next week. The U.S. is seeking support from Ukraine and European allies, though the deal remains uncertain. China’s President Xi Jinping told Vladimir Putin he welcomes US-Russia contact on resolving the Ukraine war and reaffirmed Beijing’s support for peace talks. The call, held at Putin’s request, followed Kremlin reports that Putin plans to meet Donald Trump soon to seek a diplomatic solution. Exxon Mobil has brought its fourth FPSO online in Guyana, four months ahead of schedule, targeting production of approximately 250 kb/d. This raises the country’s total installed output to around 900 kb/d. Four more FPSOs are planned by 2030. Norway plans its first new oil and gas licensing round in unexplored frontier areas since 2021, aiming to reinforce its role as a key energy supplier to Europe. Energy Minister Terje Aasland emphasised the sector’s importance for jobs and national revenue. The move follows a four-year moratorium agreed in 2021, and comes ahead of parliamentary elections on 8 Sep, with the Labour government narrowly leading in polls. A competing bid has emerged in the US auction of Citgo’s parent company. While a $7.4 billion offer from Gold Reserve was recommended, court officials are now reviewing an unsolicited bid, though it hasn’t yet been deemed superior. Iraq’s navy detained a Liberian-flagged tanker, Liliana, carrying 93,000 mt of fuel oil, as part of a crackdown on smuggling. The ship was seized near Basra and is suspected of attempting to smuggle Iraqi oil. Authorities are holding the vessel pending a judicial review. Finally, the front (Oct/Nov) and 6-month (Oct/Apr) Brent futures spreads are at $0.67/bbl and $1.63/bbl, respectively.
Trump back on his favourite hobby -after golf- tariffs! He likes them, doesn’t he? Yesterday, he announced tariffs on 1kg and 100-ounce gold bars, a sudden blow to Switzerland, the world’s top gold refining hub. Switzerland exported $61.5 billion in gold to the US in the 12 months to June. But gold is fungible, so Switzerland will export the offending gold bars elsewhere, which will then export their own, or melt it, or whatever. Why is Trump doing this stuff? It does not matter; the price of gold went up. In our opinion, Trump or no Trump, gold is still a buy.
Oct’25 Brent Futures sank in the early morning to a low of $65.80/bbl at 07.43 BST but rose to $66.80/bbl at 11.10 BST (time of writing). Pakistan Refinery Limited (PRL) will import its first Nigerian Bonny Light crude shipment from Vitol in September 2025, signalling a shift from its traditional reliance on Middle Eastern oil. The 500kb shipment offers a cheaper alternative and follows a similar move by Cnergyico to import US crude in October. Oil remains Pakistan’s most significant import, totalling $11.3 billion in FY 2025, about 20% of its total imports. Petrobras reported weaker-than-expected results as lower oil prices offset strong output. It raised investments 30.6% y/y to $4.4B but cut its Q2 dividend to $1.6B, below the $2.2B expected. CEO Magda Chambriard aims to control spending while expanding production. Hindustan Petroleum Corp is seeking alternative crude sources amid rising Russian oil prices and sanctions. Chairman Vikas Kaushal said the move is a precaution in case the company stops Russian imports. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said a pause in the Ukraine war may be near, citing signals and his conversation with President Zelensky. He noted there is hope for a potential freeze in the conflict, though not necessarily an end. At the time of writing, the front (Oct/Nov) and 6-month (Oct/Apr’26) Brent Futures spreads are printing at $0.59/bbl and $1.43/bbl, respectively.
Trump is handing tariff letters as if they were paper towels. In fact he announced a 100% tariff on chips and semiconductors, but companies that invest in US manufacturing will not face any levies. He also stands firm against the Swiss and they’re playing their last card now, asking the FIFA President to negotiate 🤣. How about giving him a pamper full of chocolates and Swiss cheese for the trips in the Qatari plane? But the tiny hand man isn’t focusing on the real threat, the loss of stature of the US and the fact that BRICS had enough. The Officials have been flagging this as it could turn into a full-fledged exit from anything American. India and Russia met to address the “terrorism” from the US. On Wednesday, they signed a new protocol to enhance industrial cooperation across various sectors. The BRICS are getting stronger and this is only the start…And of course, Modi, who is really aggrieved, is soon meeting China’s leader, Xi.
Trump’s drums of liberation are relentless, and India is the latest country on the receiving end of that “liberation”. Perhaps, a special gift ahead of India’s Independence Day next Friday.
The Oct’25 Brent crude futures weakened from $67.30/bbl at 13.55 BST to $66.47/bbl at 16.41 BST before correcting slightly to $66.90/bbl by 17.36 BST (time of writing). US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin are expected to meet in the coming days, according to Kremlin adviser Yuri Ushakov. The meeting could take place as early as next week, with the location already decided but not yet disclosed. Iran maintained near-record oil exports in June, shipping around 1.8 mb/d, one of its strongest performances since 2018. Earlier reports from July had noted similar export volumes over recent months. The latest data confirms that Iran has managed to stabilise its crude oil shipments at these elevated levels. Montenegro has approved its 2025 plan to build mandatory oil reserves, aiming to stockpile 112,340 mt of oil products by mid-2026 to cover three months of supply. The hydrocarbons administration will handle 60% of this, while large importers will cover the rest. Due to funding and storage constraints, the government will only purchase 14,000–19,000 mt of diesel in 2025. China’s crude oil imports rose 11.5% year-on-year in July to 11.12 mb/d, driven by higher run rates from state refiners post-maintenance. However, imports fell 5.4% from June’s 12.14mb/d, when independent refiners stocked up on discounted sanctioned barrels. Refinery utilisation reached 71.84% in July, up from both June and the same period last year. Finally, the front (Oct/Nov) and 6-month (Oct/Apr) Brent futures spreads are at $0.56/bbl and $1.45/bbl, respectively.
The gasoline market softened into the latter half of July, with Oct’25 RBOB – Brent futures (RBBR) reaching resistance at $14.80/bbl and seeing lower highs to reach support at $12.55/bbl on 01 Aug. There has been good support in the first week of August. RBBR reached $14.50/bbl at the time of writing on 07 Aug, and the prompt EBOB crack is supported at $15.00/bbl at the time of writing. This is above the 100-day moving average and the strongest the M1 contract has been since 18 Jul. EIA stats for the week to 18 Jul showed a 1.74mb draw in gasoline stocks, with the following week’s data, released on 06 Aug, showing a further draw of 1.32mb in total US gasoline inventories. This remains around 2.0mb higher than last year and essentially level with the 2020-24 average.
India’s robust reply to Trump’s tariffs stunned quite a few traders. They say now that India had no other option. If this is the case, why did Trump push them to the brink? Tactically and strategically the US is losing friends faster than an oil trader without a job.🤣But enough of that, what did traders think of the jump in Saudi OSPs? High, they said, but the market demand is there. Traders expect China and India to continue to focus on Russian, Iranian and of course Other PG crude streams. Demand is good but the resumption of India’s buying for Russian crude altered the perception and reality of supply and the flat price is struggling. We have heard now of at least 6 Russian cargoes to discharge in India. Trump…take that! The Brent/Dubai swap went downhill this morning, it opened at -65c, and at Singapore close, it plunged to -$1!
The October Brent Futures contract has seen a mixed overnight session, initially trading rangebound between $67.20/bbl and $67.60/bbl before falling sharply at 09:00 BST to $66.70, and subsequently rising back to $67.45/bbl, where it trades at the time of writing, 11:10 BST. In headlines, at a press conference earlier today, Trump hinted that China could face similar tariffs to those levied against India earlier in the week, stating, “We did it with India. We’re doing it probably with a couple of others. One of them could be China.” He justified the move as “necessary and appropriate” to penalise indirect support of the Russian economy, framing the move as part of broader efforts to curb Russia’s oil revenues amid the Ukraine conflict. On Wednesday, Trump also stated there was a “very good chance” he would soon meet with both Putin and Zelenskyy as part of renewed efforts to broker peace, as the US special envoy Steve Witkoff held talks in Moscow yesterday. Meanwhile, China’s crude oil imports rose 11.5% y/y in July to 11.12 mb/d, according to data from the General Administration of Customs cited by Reuters, primarily driven by state refiners ramping up processing after maintenance. However, imports were down 5.4% from June’s nearly two-year high of 12.14 mb/d, when independent teapot refiners stocked up on heavily discounted sanctioned crude, including from Iran. In contrast, July saw reduced buying by independents, while state-owned refiners increased activity. According to Oilchem, China’s refinery utilisation rate climbed to 71.84% in July, up 1.02 percentage points from June and 3.56 points higher than July 2024. At the time of writing, the front (Oct/Nov) and 6-month (Oct/Apr’26) Brent Futures spreads are printing at $0.59/bbl and $1.63/bbl, respectively.
In line with these price movements, Flux Insight’s CFTC Predictor anticipates an unwinding of long managed-by-money positioning and rise in speculative shorts in ICE Brent futures and ICE gasoil futures in the week ending 5 Aug.
Day 1 of the BRICS Liberation Day! Many nations encompassing billions of people and at least twice the US GDP are finally showing some resolve and standing up to Trump. India is the most vocal leader, with Brazil not too far behind, while China has stated its independent position clearly from the very beginning. Trump pushed the new Tariffs on India, and well…he broke the US leadership position. Brent flat price plummeted from $69.17 all the way to $67.95 in just 11 minutes in the aftermath of the US poorly timed action. We hope you went short! Some will ask, why is this bearish? India published a statement saying, “India will take all actions necessary to protect its national interests”. This means the Russian supply is back on officially. But why “BRICS Liberation Day”? India this afternoon realised it’s over with the papa Trump, China is already shifting -now seeking global market share in its currency-, Brazil talking about a BRICS currency, and Russia has been waving to the US for the last 3 years from afar. See more in the details!
The Oct’25 Brent crude futures weakened on Wednesday afternoon, falling from $69/bbl to $67.20/bbl before rebounding towards $68/bbl by 17:45 BST (time of writing). In the news, Saudi Aramco raised the OSP for Arab Light to Asia by $1/bbl to $3.20/bbl above the Oman/Dubai average for September. President Trump announced an additional 25% tariff on goods from India in response to its continued purchase of Russian oil, on top of the existing 25%. According to Reuters sources, a restart of Iraq’s Kurdish oil exports via Turkey’s Ceyhan pipeline is not imminent, despite Iraqi oil minister saying that a resumption was expected on Wednesday or Thursday, after a two-year hiatus. TotalEnergies sold a 45% stake in two Vaca Muerta oil and gas blocks to YPF for $500 million, aiming to refocus on lower-cost core assets in Argentina and major projects in Suriname and Brazil. Dubai-based oil trader 2Rivers, formerly Coral Energy, has begun formal dissolution after UK and EU sanctions, despite denying any breach of Russian oil measures and pledging to challenge the restrictions. Finally, the front (Oct/Nov) and 6-month (Oct/Apr) Brent futures spreads are at $0.65/bbl and $1.80/bbl respectively.
Saudi OSPs are on the menu today -as confirmed by the Saudis- but it looks like the main course will arrive fashionably later than expected! ‘OSPs are slow,’ said a source. According to sources, Saudi Arabia was still calling people up this morning as they have extra crude to sell! So, dear reader, brace for lower OSPs than the $1.11 -what the monthly structure implies. Some sources are eyeing levels closer to 85c.
We said in the Euro 2.150 report that the KSA has room to crank the pumps, with a source saying, “We are looking at an additional 400 kbpd from Saudi in September.” Supply is increasing and yes, we expect the Saudis to underreport the production number. We, The Officials will remind you again, never trust government data!
The Oct’25 Brent futures contract has seen more support since declining to $67.55/bbl at 21:05 BST on 5 Aug. Prices have since risen to $68.65/bbl at 11:23 BST (time of writing), and appear to be meeting resistance at the $68.70/bbl handle.
Brent crude futures softened this week after rallying from $69.87/bbl on 29 Jul’s open to close just below $73.50/bbl the next day. The contract dropped to $67.65/bbl on 05 Aug at the time of writing, breaking below the previous uptrend. M1 Brent is now testing support at the 100-day moving average at around $68.00/bbl. Past this moving average, the next level of support may be found near $66.45/bbl, which acted as support on 01 Jul, having served as resistance throughout May. If the market buys into the current dip, the contract must test the uptrend line previously outlined (dashed white line) at around $69.50/bbl to resume the uptrend of the past months. If the price can overcome this hurdle, we will likely resume the previous regime, whereby the 200-day moving average (dark blue line) acts as resistance at $71.25/bbl.
And the trade rhetoric continues… with Trump singling out India, which “has not been a good partner.” He vowed to raise tariffs “within 24 hours” due to New Delhi’s continued appetite for Russian crude. A trader summed up the market view, “We are also asking ourselves if Russia stops into India (which I believe is extremely unlikely), how much more Russian can China absorb?” But the oil will only stop in qan imaginary world. Nearer us in Dubai, the trade carries on. The traders continue to move Russian barrels and three vessels are scheduled to be discharged imminently for IOC, Reliance and HPCL. Meanwhile, another source said, “Even over the weekend, EU/UK-sanctioned vessels were discharging”.
While outright values suggest that the physical market is tight, whether or not this translates to a bullish market is a subjective matter. Notional values are high, but CFD rolls continue to roll down weekly. The 21-25 July 1-week roll is down from $0.50 to $0.10/bbl, and the 28-01 Aug 1-week roll is down from $0.45 to $0.30/bbl. The culprit? A relentlessly strong physical market. The market is implying forward differentials at stratospherically high levels, so even if the physical strengthens, it is insufficient, weakening the CFD rolls. As it stands, early August weeks are pricing above $1/bbl. The 21 July physical window was constructive, with the physical rising from $0.69 to $0.77/bbl, but there are still ways to go.
The Oct’25 Brent Futures contract fell to $68.75/bbl at 08:57 BST. Prices then traded rangebound between $68.99/bbl and $68.80/bbl before falling to $68.60/bbl at 11:30 BST (time of writing). In the news, OPEC+ agreed to a September output increase of 54kb/d, completing the reversal of earlier cuts totalling about 2.5 mb/d. While the hike met expectations, traders remain cautious amid escalating geopolitical risks, including potential new US sanctions on Russia and threats of 100% tariffs on Russian oil buyers as Washington pressures Moscow over Ukraine. In other news, smaller Chinese oil companies are expanding rapidly in Iraq, investing billions and aiming to double their output there to 500kb/d by 2030. This marks a shift in Iraq’s oil sector, long dominated by large Chinese state firms and Western majors, many of which have scaled back. These companies have significantly reduced drilling costs and timelines, often completing developments in two to three years compared to five to ten for Western firms. However, concerns remain about transparency, technical standards, and heavy reliance on Chinese labour over local hires. BP announced its largest oil and gas discovery in 25 years in Brazil’s deepwater Santos basin. BP plans to develop a major production hub offshore Brazil and currently holds 100% of the Bumerangue block under a production-sharing contract with Pré-Sal Petróleo SA. Early tests show high carbon dioxide levels, with further analysis planned to assess the block’s potential. BP’s shares rose 1.4% on the news, ahead of its second-quarter earnings report. Finally, the front-month Oct/Nov spread is at $0.77/bbl and the 6-month Oct/Apr spread is at $2.24/bbl.
In this podcast, our Onyx Commodities Head of Trading Desks discuss the latest trends and developments in the oil, gas, power and carbon markets in which Onyx Commodities trades. This episode was recorded on Tuesday, 05 August 2025, at 11:30 a.m. London time. Please listen to the end of this podcast for important disclaimers.
This communication is for informational purposes only and based on the information available at the time the podcast was recorded. This is not an offer to buy or sell, nor a solicitation, and no recommendations are implied. It does not consider your financial circumstances or objectives and may not be suitable for you. Copyright 2025, Onyx Capital Group – all rights reserved.
In the week ending 1 August 2025, as trading rolled into the October contracts, exchange traded futures volumes rose w/w across Brent, Gasoil and WTI in the first three tenors. Brent volumes experienced a particularly strong increase w/w with the December contract posting the largest gain – up nearly 53% w/w. WTI also recorded its biggest rise in the December tenor, though more modest at 22.46% w/w. By contrast, volumes in Heating Oil and RBOB futures declined in the October contract, down 13.14% and 1.06% w/w, respectively.
The Oct’25 Brent Futures contract initially rallied to $68.79/bbl at 08:23 BST before falling to $68.02/bbl at 11:00 BST (time of writing). In the news, Saudi Aramco reported a 22% drop in Q2 profit to $22.7 Bn amid falling crude prices and rising debt, prompting cost cuts and potential asset sales to raise capital. Aramco’s realized crude price averaged $66.7/bbl, down from $85.70/bbl a year ago, putting pressure on Saudi finances, which require oil above $90.00/bbl to balance the 2025 budget. The kingdom is now expected to run a budget deficit of around 5% of GDP, more than double prior forecasts. In other news, Russia’s seaborne diesel and gasoil exports declined 5% in July to 3.26 mmt due to refinery maintenance and higher domestic demand, LSEG data shows. Shipments via Primorsk fell 11.3% from June to 1.26 mt. Turkey and Brazil remained top buyers, though exports to Turkey dropped 14% to 1.25 mt and to Brazil fell 29% to 0.37 mt. Deliveries to African nations, including Morocco, Senegal, Ghana, and Libya, decreased by about 25% to 0.69 mt. Over 400 kt of diesel are also undergoing ship-to-ship transfers near Cyprus, with final destinations yet unconfirmed. Saudi Arabian oil drilling firm ADES International Holding has agreed to acquire Oslo-listed Shelf Drilling for 3.9 Bn Norwegian crowns ($379 million) in cash. The deal values Shelf Drilling at 14 crowns per share and has been recommended by Shelf’s board. The combined company will operate 83 offshore jack-up drilling rigs, strengthening ADES’s position in shallow-water offshore drilling. Finally, the front-month Oct/Nov spread is at $0.66/bbl and the 6-month Oct/Apr spread is at $1.86/bbl.
The bears are back. There is a mounting bearish sentiment in the market. Whether OPEC unwind means more barrels or not the signals say this baby is going down. Chevron is back in Venezuela, new discoveries in Brazil, and Saudi look primed to release more. Combine this with the end of summer burn and the poor macro indicators and you have an undeniably bearish concoction. And today Dubai got absolutely crushed. The physical premium shed 43c to $2.56, the softest since June 27. Look at Brent/Dubai September swap, which closed at -71c and is currently trading at around -65c, just on Friday the contract was at -$1.09!
Trump just cannot keep his mouth shut! The Donald decided to fire renewed tariff threats on India, because they don’t want to stop buying Russian. He “will be substantially raising the Tariff paid by India to the USA”… We are sure they are quaking! Are they? Or they see another TACO coming? See India’s response on page 3. Seriously, can the US take on Russia, Iran, China, India and Europe? Europe he can, but that’s about it. But flat price jumped 67c in just 3 minutes on the news and the prompt spread rallied to 85c before retracing to the upper $68 handle and to the 80c mark, respectively.
The frenzy over geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran that sent the oil price rocketing in June gave way to calmer price action in July. Brent consolidated in a range, sandwiched between its structural 100 and 200-day moving averages. With Middle Eastern oil supply disruption fears in the rearview mirror, the market took the opportunity to review global fundamentals against a backdrop of ongoing trade uncertainty. Brent flat price traded on either side of $69.50/bbl in July, while prompt structure on futures softened from above a dollar to around 78 cents at the time of writing, as did the prompt DFLs. In July, while the net position of money managers on the Brent futures rose, risk takers appeared hesitant to make large weekly increments. The US made headway regarding tariffs with key trade partners, such as Japan, the EU, and Korea, but India’s and China’s cases are still unresolved. In the meantime, OPEC+, following its virtual meeting on 3 August, fully rescinded its 2.2 mb/d voluntary cut decided back in November 2023, adding back 548 kb/d of notional barrels to the market. Heading into August, Brent traded above the psychological $70/bbl level only to quickly slip back. Finally, President Trump upped the pressure on the original BRICs countries through trade measures or sanctions, while unleashing new sanctions on Iran.
Another week brings another selection of new trade ideas from Flux Insights. This week, we look at trades in Crude Oil and NGL swaps, and review our trades from July 2025.
The front-month (Oct’25) Brent futures contract eased from $68.60/bbl at noon today to $68.10/bbl at 14:10 BST, where prices met support and climbed to $69.35/bbl by 16:35 BST. Nevertheless, the futures contract eventually retreated to $68.85/bbl at the time of writing (17:48 BST). US President Donald Trump reiterated today that he will substantially raise tariffs on goods from India, stating, in a post on Truth Social, that “India is not only buying massive amounts of Russian Oil, they are then, for much of the Oil purchased, selling it on the Open Market for big profits. They don’t care how many people in Ukraine are being killed by the Russian War Machine.” In line with this, Indian Oil Corp has purchased 7mb of crude oil from the US, Canada, and the Middle East, as per a Reuters report. However, on the domestic front, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has urged the nation to purchase local goods, and his administration has yet to instruct India’s refiners to curb their purchases of Russian oil. In macroeconomic news, new orders for US-manufactured goods eased by 4.8% in June 2025, which was in line with expectations but followed a revised 8.3% increase in May. Finally, at the time of writing, the front-month (Oct/Nov’25) and six-month (Oct/Apr’26) Brent futures spreads stand at $0.78/bbl and $2.25/bbl
Although prices approached $73/bbl last week, the Oct’25 Brent crude futures closed below $70/bbl on Friday following a soft US nonfarm payrolls reading. Meanwhile, over the weekend, it was announced that OPEC+ has completed the unwinding of its 2.2mb/d of
Markets collapsed! The sentiment was extremely bearish and, in a way, it doesn’t matter what OPEC says it does or doesn’t do. The market is reacting to the overall interpretation of supply and things don’t look so good. We told you to go short or maybe we told you we were bearish. Well, here it is, by press time Brent had dropped over $1.00/bbl and was heading to the low $68 handle, why? The Saudi summer burn is over, in the markets we are talking about two months forward and there’s no summer burn there as far as the eye can see. And the broader economic narrative following the US tariffs are expected to chomp a bit of the global GDP. Moreover, product margins are going down as the Chinese crank out exports.
In the week ending 29 Jul, the two major crude oil futures benchmarks (Brent and WTI futures) strengthened, buoyed by rising risk to global supplies as the US threatened to levy sanctions on buyers of Russian energy. There has been little progress regarding US trade agreements with China and India. At the same time, the US has upped its tariffs on Indian and Brazilian goods, alongside an unspecified penalty on India for purchasing Russian crude oil. The uncertainty generated from this tariff disagreement may have filtered into risk assets such as oil, with total open interest in Brent+WTI futures declining by 75mb (-1.6%) in the week ending 29 Jul. This removal was driven by Brent futures, which saw a 90mb decline in open interest (-3.2%), likely from shorts stopping out as prices breached the critical $70/bbl barrier. On the other hand, open interest saw a relatively muted 15mb (+0.8%) increase in WTI futures. Producers/merchants were risk-off, pointing to an unwinding of refiner and producer hedging. Onyx’s general assessment for M1 refinery margins declined in the week ending 29 Jul, moving from a high of $9.35/bbl to $7.50/bbl, amid rising crude prices and a softening middle distillates complex.
The Oct’25 Brent Futures contract fell to $68.75/bbl at 08:57 BST. Prices then traded rangebound between $68.99/bbl and $68.80/bbl before falling to $68.60/bbl at 11:30 BST (time of writing). In the news, OPEC+ agreed to a September output increase of 54kb/d, completing the reversal of earlier cuts totalling about 2.5 mb/d. While the hike met expectations, traders remain cautious amid escalating geopolitical risks, including potential new US sanctions on Russia and threats of 100% tariffs on Russian oil buyers as Washington pressures Moscow over Ukraine. In other news, smaller Chinese oil companies are expanding rapidly in Iraq, investing billions and aiming to double their output there to 500kb/d by 2030. This marks a shift in Iraq’s oil sector, long dominated by large Chinese state firms and Western majors, many of which have scaled back. These companies have significantly reduced drilling costs and timelines, often completing developments in two to three years compared to five to ten for Western firms. However, concerns remain about transparency, technical standards, and heavy reliance on Chinese labour over local hires. BP announced its largest oil and gas discovery in 25 years in Brazil’s deepwater Santos basin. BP plans to develop a major production hub offshore Brazil and currently holds 100% of the Bumerangue block under a production-sharing contract with Pré-Sal Petróleo SA. Early tests show high carbon dioxide levels, with further analysis planned to assess the block’s potential. BP’s shares rose 1.4% on the news, ahead of its second-quarter earnings report. Finally, the front-month Oct/Nov spread is at $0.77/bbl and the 6-month Oct/Apr spread is at $2.24/bbl.
High Sulphur Fuel Oil saw a fortnight of two halves. The 3.5% barge crack initially rallied on short covering flows in the prompt. However, prices quickly retreated from elevated levels, exacerbated by stronger crude. Aug’25 prices saw highs of -$0.50/bbl on 23 July before falling to -$4.25/bbl by 31 July. As the Sing 380 market capitulated, the 380 East/West cratered to lows of -$20/mt, before technical support and weakness in 3.5% barges buoyed the East/West higher. By 1 August, the now Bal-Aug’25 East/West has bounced up to -$12/mt. As crude strengthened, we observed Chinese arbers selling 380 flat price, focused in the Oct’25, Nov’25, and Jan’26 tenors. Finally, the Visco strengthened over the fortnight, supported by Sing 180 MOC, with hedge buying from end users for power generation demand.
Boys and girls, the tariff fluff is over. India freaked out and tried to curry favour with the US and curtailed back usage of Russian crude and bought American crude, sending the market in a tizzy from 66 to 73 roughly. And despite their bending over like the EU they still were tariffed hard. What we have learnt in life is that if you bend over you get tariffed or worse. Ask the EU 🤣. And now it is all done, the Indian issued a tender and did their buying and the bloom came off the rose. See the tender volume results in the details section.
The Oct’25 Brent Futures fell from $71.82/bbl at 13:42 BST to $69.63/bbl at 17:15 BST (time of writing). In the news, OPEC+ is expected to approve another oil output increase at their upcoming meeting on Sunday, though the size of the hike for September is still being debated. Sources suggest the group could raise production by up to 548kb/d, matching August’s increase, though a smaller hike is also possible. This would complete the reversal of earlier 2.2 mb/d cuts. OPEC+ has accelerated output hikes since April to counter low global inventories, shifting from years of cuts to regain market share and respond to US demands for more supply. In other news, at least two vessels carrying Russian oil to India have diverted to other destinations following new US sanctions, trade sources and LSEG data show. The sanctions target over 115 Iran-linked entities and ships involved in transporting Russian oil. The diversions highlight growing disruptions to Russian oil shipments as Western sanctions tighten to curb Moscow’s war revenue. India faces rising challenges to its imports amid US President Donald Trump’s threats of 100% tariffs on countries buying Russian crude. Exxon Mobil reported second-quarter profits above Wall Street expectations as higher oil and gas output and low production costs offset weaker crude prices. The company posted adjusted earnings of $7.1 Bn, or $1.64 per share, beating forecasts of $1.56. Production rose to 4.6 mb/d, the highest second-quarter level since in over 25 years. CEO Darren Woods said Exxon remains open to acquisitions but will only pursue deals that add value, citing potential opportunities in the Permian basin. Finally, the front-month Oct/Nov and 6-month Oct/Apr’26 spreads are at $0.96/bbl and $2.76/bbl respectively.
T-day round two! Trump has pulled out the tariff gatling gun once again, firing import duties seemingly at will, slapping 10% or more or none at all on imports bound for the US. About 40 countries’ exports to the US have been hit with 15% tariffs or more. Few have escaped his wrath, but Trump’s bud Kier has gotten off lightly with the UK only getting the 10% minimum!
