Data Vault Reports
Onyx Positioning Report – 11 November 2025
This report aims to provide a position index for energy futures between -50 and 50, with 0 as the neutral position. The full methodology is at the back of the report. When the position index is at the extremes, above 40 or below -40, the market is overstretched relative to its average position in the previous 3-year rolling window. As such, it is ripe for mean reversion. Consequently, when the index is high, deleveraging will follow, having a negative impact on price, while when the index is low, we expect accumulation that will push the price higher.
Flux CFTC Style COT Reports – 10 November 2025
Looking at Flux Insight’s CTA positioning for the week ending 10 Nov, CTA positioning in gasoil and heating oil continues to be extremely strong, with both products almost equal at +22k lots. This positioning lies at the tail end of historical ranges, which may encourage a mean-reversion of prices in the near-term. The strength across the barrel is not uniform, and although net positioning in Brent and WTI inched up initially in the week, they both dropped to see w/w losses and remained well in the negative territory. There has, however, seemed to be a refreshed bearish attitude in the crude flat prices, with Brent and WTI losing around 6k lots from 04-07 Nov. Although RBOB remains negative, it has continued to move up in the week, reaching its highest level since mid-August, well post-driving season.
Refinery Margins Report
In the week ending 07 November, Refinery Margins rose across all regions: Asian M1 Margins up to $13.21/bbl (+$0.64/bbl w/w), European M1 Margins up to $11.77/bbl (+$0.56/bbl w/w), and US Margins up to $17.38/bbl (+$0.65/bbl w/w).
Asian margins were driven up by 92 Brent Crack and Dubai 92 Crack which increased by +$1.81/bbl w/w and +$2.01/bbl w/w respectively. The S10 Brent Crack was the biggest mover, increasing by +$2.87/bbl w/w, the Kero Dubai Crack was close by increasing by +$2.75/bbl w/w.
In Europe ICE Gasoil crack was the biggest mover, increasing by +$3.19/bbl w/w, EBOB Cracks also saw strength, increasing by $2.63/bbl.
Weekly Oil Inventories Report
This report reviews weekly oil inventory data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report, Global Insights’ ARA Independent Storage and International Enterprise’s Singapore product storage
US EIA Weekly Report
This report reviews the key data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Onyx Positioning Report – 04 November 2025
This report aims to provide a position index for energy futures between -50 and 50, with 0 as the neutral position. The full methodology is at the back of the report. When the position index is at the extremes, above 40 or below -40, the market is overstretched relative to its average position in the previous 3-year rolling window. As such, it is ripe for mean reversion. Consequently, when the index is high, deleveraging will follow, having a negative impact on price, while when the index is low, we expect accumulation that will push the price higher.
Flux CFTC Style COT Reports – 03 November 2025
Looking at Flux Insight’s CTA positioning for the week ending 3 Nov, net long positioning in Brent and WTI futures has risen moderately since 28 Oct, reflecting a decline in risk following the exodus of shorts in the week ending 28 Oct. Positioning in Brent and WTI futures remains net short, at -17k lots and -20k lots, respectively, on 3 Nov. Meanwhile, CTA net length in RBOB futures climbed from -25k lots on 28 Oct to a projected -17.7k lots on 3 Nov. Still, the middle distillates complex continues to outperform the remaining futures, with CTA net length in both NYMEX heating oil and ICE gasoil futures sitting at +15.8k lots, up from +10.8k lots and +11.65k lots on 28 Oct, respectively. Nonetheless, this positioning lies at the tail end of historical ranges, which may encourage a mean-reversion of prices in the near-term.
Refinery Margins Report
In the week ending 31 October Refinery Margins rose across all regions: Asian M1 Margins up to $12.57/bbl (+$0.96/bbl w/w), European M1 Margins up to $11.21/bbl (+$1.16/bbl w/w), and US Margins up to $16.73/bbl (+$1.55/bbl w/w).
Asian margins were driven up by Sing Gasoil Brent Crack and Dubai Gasoil Crack which increased by +$1.24/bbl w/w and +$2.49/bbl w/w respectively, the MOPJ Dubai Crack also increased by +$2.19/bbl w/w.
In Europe ICE Gasoil crack was also the biggest mover, increasing by +$1.49/bbl w/w, Naphtha Cracks also saw some strength, increasing by $0.79/bbl.
Weekly Oil Inventories Report
This report reviews weekly oil inventory data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report, Global Insights’ ARA Independent Storage and International Enterprise’s Singapore product storage
US EIA Weekly Report
This report reviews the key data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Onyx Positioning Report – 28 October 2025
This report aims to provide a position index for energy futures between -50 and 50, with 0 as the neutral position. The full methodology is at the back of the report. When the position index is at the extremes, above 40 or below -40, the market is overstretched relative to its average position in the previous 3-year rolling window. As such, it is ripe for mean reversion. Consequently, when the index is high, deleveraging will follow, having a negative impact on price, while when the index is low, we expect accumulation that will push the price higher.
Flux CFTC Style COT Reports – 27 October 2025
Looking at Flux Insight’s CTA positioning, positioning in Brent futures trended downward from -34k lots on 14 Oct to -51k lots on 21 Oct before reversing to reach -20k lots on 27 Oct. Like Brent, middle distillate positioning also fell before increasing; NYMEX heating oil fell from -10k lots on 14 Oct to -19k lots on 21 Oct before increasing to +6k lots on 27 Oct. ICE gasoil fell from -11k lots to -22k lots and rose to +4k lots during the same time period. RBOB futures followed the same trend, from -37k lots to -42k lots and back up to -23k lots on 27 Oct. From an index perspective, NYMEX heating oil and ICE LS gasoil are moving towards the overbought territory, perhaps signaling an impending reversal.
Refinery Margins Report
In the week ending 24 October Refinery Margins rose across all regions: Asian M1 Margins up to $11.61/bbl (+$0.64/bbl w/w), European M1 Margins up to $10.05/bbl (+$0.97/bbl w/w), and US Margins up to $15.18/bbl (+$1.09/bbl w/w).
Asian margins were driven up by Sing Gasoil Brent Crack and Dubai Gasoil Crack which increased by +$4.43/bbl w/w and +$5.24/bbl w/w respectively, the Kero Dubai Crack also increased by +$2.19/bbl w/w.
In Europe Gasoil crack was also the biggest mover, increasing by +$5.7/bbl w/w
Weekly Oil Inventories Report
This report reviews weekly oil inventory data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report, Global Insights’ ARA Independent Storage and International Enterprise’s Singapore product storage
US EIA Weekly Report
This report reviews the key data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report