Data Vault Reports
US EIA Weekly Report
This report reviews the key data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Onyx Positioning Accumulator – 30 September 2025
When there was no commitment of traders data, technical analysts looked for a workaround to infer overall position changes in the market. The analysis tests joint changes in a futures contract’s price and open interest to determine whether long or short positions were being added or whether long or short positions were covered. These outcomes are illustrated in Table 1 below.
To build our series, we test the conditions in Table 1 below and then qualify the change as one of the four outcomes. We then count the number of occurrences of each outcome in a lookback period to give the percentage of each outcome. The four outcomes over the lookback period always add up to 100%. The look-back period rolls over daily. Table 2 shows the price implications of the four outcomes. Tables 3 and 4 illustrate Open Interest, Volume and Price relations and Open Interest, respectively.
Onyx Positioning Report – 30 September 2025
This report aims to provide a position index for energy futures between -50 and 50, with 0 as the neutral position. The full methodology is at the back of the report. When the position index is at the extremes, above 40 or below -40, the market is overstretched relative to its average position in the previous 3-year rolling window. As such, it is ripe for mean reversion. Consequently, when the index is high, deleveraging will follow, having a negative impact on price, while when the index is low, we expect accumulation that will push the price higher.
Flux CFTC Style COT Reports – 29 Sep 2025
Looking at Flux Insight’s CTA positioning model over the week ending 26 Sep, CTA positioning in middle distillates remains positive, while positioning in Brent is now trending upwards from -14k lots on 23 Sep to -1.1k lots on 26 Sep. RBOB futures remains relatively pressured, with CTA net length moving from -17.9k lots on 23 Sep to -15.4k lots on 26 Sep. Normalising these CTA positions (with z-scores from -50 to +50) highlights that RBOB’s positioning consolidated around -1.5 towards the end of last week. However, it is projected to rise to +3.9 on 29 Sep, signalling near-term support. Meanwhile, Brent positioning is trending close to the overbought territory of +40, which could limit further gains.
Refinery Margins Report
In the week ending 26 September Refinery Margins strengthened across all regions: Asia M1 up to $10.08/bbl (+$0.93/bbl w/w), European M1 Margins up to $9.25/bbl (+$0.13/bbl w/w), and US Margins up to $14.58/bbl (+$0.30/bbl w/w)
Strength in the Gasoil Brent Crack and Dubai product cracks drove up Asian Margins. The first increasing by +$4.90/bbl, whereas with the Kero/Dubai crack, and the GO Dubai Crack rose by +$2.35/bbl and +$2.26/bbl respectively.
Cracks in Europe were mixed: GO and 3.5 Bgs Cracks increased by $1.92/bbl and $0.90/bbl respectively whereas Naphtha, and 0.5 Bgs Cracks fell by -$1.25/bbl, and -$0.60/bbl respectively.
Weekly Oil Inventories Report
This report reviews weekly oil inventory data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report, Global Insights’ ARA Independent Storage and International Enterprise’s Singapore product storage
US EIA Weekly Report
This report reviews the key data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Onyx Positioning Report – 23 September 2025
This report aims to provide a position index for energy futures between -50 and 50, with 0 as the neutral position. The full methodology is at the back of the report. When the position index is at the extremes, above 40 or below -40, the market is overstretched relative to its average position in the previous 3-year rolling window. As such, it is ripe for mean reversion. Consequently, when the index is high, deleveraging will follow, having a negative impact on price, while when the index is low, we expect accumulation that will push the price higher.
Flux CFTC Style COT Reports – 22 Sep 2025
Looking at Flux Insight’s CTA positioning model over the week ending 22 Sep, CTA positioning in middle distillates remains positive. However, this long positioning softened on 19 Sep and is expected to drop further on 22 Sep. CTA positions in RBOB futures and WTI futures have moved in tandem, rising to nearly -14k lots on 18 Sep before dropping to -16.7k lots on 22 Sep. Normalising these CTA positions (with z-scores from -50 to +50) highlights that RBOB’s positioning climbed above zero on 18 Sep but has eased and is projected to revert to -4.2 on 22 Sep. Meanwhile, although positioning in Brent and WTI futures is skewed to the sell-side, net long positioning remains above its long-term average, signalling room for further downside.
Refinery Margins Report
In the week ending 19 September Refinery Margins strengthened across all regions: Asia M1 up to $9.54/bbl (+$0.76/bbl w/w), European M1 Margins up to $9.49/bbl (+$0.26/bbl), and US Margins up to $14.62/bbl (+$0.28/bbl w/w)
Strength in the Dubai product cracks drove up Asian Margins, with the Kero/Dubai crack increasing by +$2.05/bbl w/w, the GO Dubai Crack rose by +$1.86/bbl and the 380 Dubai Crack by +$1.00/bbl.
Cracks in Europe were mixed: GO and 3.5 Bgs Cracks increased by $1.29/bbl and $0.80/bbl respectively whereas Naphtha, EBOB, and 0.5 Bgs Cracks fell by -$0.75/bbl , -$0.14/bbl, and -$0.55/bbl respectively.
Weekly Oil Inventories Report
This report reviews weekly oil inventory data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report, Global Insights’ ARA Independent Storage and International Enterprise’s Singapore product storage
US EIA Weekly Report
This report reviews the key data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Onyx Positioning Report – 16 September 2025
This report aims to provide a position index for energy futures between -50 and 50, with 0 as the neutral position. The full methodology is at the back of the report. When the position index is at the extremes, above 40 or below -40, the market is overstretched relative to its average position in the previous 3-year rolling window. As such, it is ripe for mean reversion. Consequently, when the index is high, deleveraging will follow, having a negative impact on price, while when the index is low, we expect accumulation that will push the price higher.
Onyx Positioning Accumulator – 16 September 2025
When there was no commitment of traders data, technical analysts looked for a workaround to infer overall position changes in the market. The analysis tests joint changes in a futures contract’s price and open interest to determine whether long or short positions were being added or whether long or short positions were covered. These outcomes are illustrated in Table 1 below.
To build our series, we test the conditions in Table 1 below and then qualify the change as one of the four outcomes. We then count the number of occurrences of each outcome in a lookback period to give the percentage of each outcome. The four outcomes over the lookback period always add up to 100%. The look-back period rolls over daily. Table 2 shows the price implications of the four outcomes. Tables 3 and 4 illustrate Open Interest, Volume and Price relations and Open Interest, respectively.
Flux CFTC Style COT Reports – 15 Sep 2025
There has been an interesting divergence in Flux Insight’s CTA positioning model. CTA positioning in middle distillates remains positive, with both ICE gasoil and NYMEX heating oil futures reaching their monthly highs before beginning to drop. CTA positions in RBOB futures saw the most dramatic decline in the week to 09 Sep, falling from +5k to -19k lots over the week. Normalising these CTA positions (with z-scores from -50 to +50) highlights that its z-score dropped from an overextended long position, with the index over 45, to a neutral z-score of -8.1 on 09 Sep.
Crude has a low CTA net position, with WTI the lowest, dropping around 12k, and Brent’s positioning is the second lowest, dropping around 15k further into negatives in the week to 09 Sep.