Data Vault Reports
Refinery Margins Report
In the week ending 12 September Refinery Margins weakened in Asia with M1 down to $8.23/bbl (- $1.18/bbl w/w). European and US Refinery Margins saw little change: the first increasing by $0.07/bbl w/w and the latter falling by -$0.01/bbl w/w.
Weakening in the Dubai product cracks drove down Asian Margins, with the Kero/Dubai crack falling by -$1.50/bbl w/w, the GO Dubai Crack fell by -$1.83/bbl and the 380 Dubai Crack by -$1.78/bbl.
Cracks in Europe were mixed: Naphtha, EBOB and 3.5 Bgs Cracks increased by $0.65/bbl, $1.27/bbl and $0.40/bbl respectively whereas GO and RBOB Cracks fell by -$0.42/bbl and -$1.55/bbl respectively.
Weekly Oil Inventories Report
This report reviews weekly oil inventory data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report, Global Insights’ ARA Independent Storage and International Enterprise’s Singapore product storage
US EIA Weekly Report
This report reviews the key data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Flux CFTC Style COT Reports – 08 Sep 2025
Flux Insight’s CTA positioning model highlights net short CTA positioning across the crude and gasoline benchmarks, while net positions in middle distillates benchmarks (gasoil and heating oil) flipped long. With the z-score of gasoil reaching 45 on 5 Sep, the saturation of long positions raises the likelihood of a mean reversion. Positions in RBOB futures saw the most dramatic decline, falling from +6k to -16k lots over the week. To highlight this, its z-score fell from +40 to -2 over the week, indicating a rapid normalisation. WTI positioning remains the most short, at -21k lots. In contrast, ICE gasoil positioning is the most bullish, at +4k lots.
Overall positioning across the benchmarks is around -50k lots, although at 2-week lows, they remain considerably higher than the lows seen in April-May.
Onyx Positioning Accumulator – 09 September 2025
When there was no commitment of traders data, technical analysts looked for a workaround to infer overall position changes in the market. The analysis tests joint changes in a futures contract’s price and open interest to determine whether long or short positions were being added or whether long or short positions were covered. These outcomes are illustrated in Table 1 below.
To build our series, we test the conditions in Table 1 below and then qualify the change as one of the four outcomes. We then count the number of occurrences of each outcome in a lookback period to give the percentage of each outcome. The four outcomes over the lookback period always add up to 100%. The look-back period rolls over daily. Table 2 shows the price implications of the four outcomes. Tables 3 and 4 illustrate Open Interest, Volume and Price relations and Open Interest, respectively.
Onyx Positioning Report – 09 September 2025
This report aims to provide a position index for energy futures between -50 and 50, with 0 as the neutral position. The full methodology is at the back of the report. When the position index is at the extremes, above 40 or below -40, the market is overstretched relative to its average position in the previous 3-year rolling window. As such, it is ripe for mean reversion. Consequently, when the index is high, deleveraging will follow, having a negative impact on price, while when the index is low, we expect accumulation that will push the price higher.
Refinery Margins Report
In the week ending 5 September refinery margins strengthened down the forward curve, with M1 Asian Refinery Margins up to $9.41/bbl (+ $2.97/bbl w/w), M1 European up to $8.89/bbl (+ $0.45/bbl w/w), and M1 US margins up to $14.39/bbl (+ $1.00/bbl w/w).
Strength in the Dubai product cracks drove up Asian Margins, with the Kero/Dubai crack rallying by $2.48/bbl w/w, the Gasoil Dubai Crack increasing by $2.85/bbl and the 92 Dubai Crack increasing by $1.54/bbl.
Cracks in Europe also saw some strength with GO and EBOB Cracks rallying by $2.46/bbl and $2.29/bbl respectively over the week.
Weekly Oil Inventories Report
This report reviews weekly oil inventory data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report, Global Insights’ ARA Independent Storage and International Enterprise’s Singapore product storage
US EIA Weekly Report
This report reviews the key data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Onyx Positioning Accumulator – 02 September 2025
When there was no commitment of traders data, technical analysts looked for a workaround to infer overall position changes in the market. The analysis tests joint changes in a futures contract’s price and open interest to determine whether long or short positions were being added or whether long or short positions were covered. These outcomes are illustrated in Table 1 below.
To build our series, we test the conditions in Table 1 below and then qualify the change as one of the four outcomes. We then count the number of occurrences of each outcome in a lookback period to give the percentage of each outcome. The four outcomes over the lookback period always add up to 100%. The look-back period rolls over daily. Table 2 shows the price implications of the four outcomes. Tables 3 and 4 illustrate Open Interest, Volume and Price relations and Open Interest, respectively.
Onyx Positioning Report – 02 September 2025
This report aims to provide a position index for energy futures between -50 and 50, with 0 as the neutral position. The full methodology is at the back of the report. When the position index is at the extremes, above 40 or below -40, the market is overstretched relative to its average position in the previous 3-year rolling window. As such, it is ripe for mean reversion. Consequently, when the index is high, deleveraging will follow, having a negative impact on price, while when the index is low, we expect accumulation that will push the price higher.
Flux Insight Global Oil Balance
This report contains Flux Insight’s Global Oil Liquids Balance, with projections of world oil supply (including OPEC crude oil production) and world oil demand to derive implied global oil stock changes by quarter. This month’s revision to our global oil balance stems from the demand side, primarily from the US, China and India.
Flux CFTC Style COT Reports – 01 Sep 2025
Flux Insight’s CTA positioning model highlights net short CTA positioning across the futures benchmarks, except in RBOB, where net long positioning stood at +5.6k lots on 29 Aug. Meanwhile, Brent and WTI futures stood at -8.4k lots and -15k lots, respectively, on 29 Aug. Moreover, CTA net length in NYMEX heating oil and ICE gasoil stood at a muted -0.269k lots and -2.7k lots on 29 Aug, with net positioning in heating flipping from net long to short on 27 Aug. Finally, we caveat that while RBOB positioning remains above zero, normalising these levels shows that RBOB CTA positioning sits on the higher end of historical averages, with a z-score of +40 (between -50 and 50), which may encourage CTA sell-side interest.
Refinery Margins Report
In the week ending 29 August, refinery margins fell down the forward curve, with M1 Asian Refinery Margins down to $6.44/bbl, M1 European margins to $8.44/bbl, and M1 US margins down to $13.39/bbl.
Weakening across both the Brent and Dubai product cracks drove down Asian Margins, with the Kero/Dubai crack falling by $1.05/bbl w/w and the Gasoil and Sing 0.5 Brent Cracks falling by $0.69/bbl and $0.58/bbl respectively.
Cracks in Europe also weakened slightly with both GO and EBOB Cracks falling by $0.38/bbl over the week.
3.5 Bgs Crack saw the largest drop on a Monthly basis, with the M1 Crack in Europe falling by $2.05/bbl.
Weekly Oil Inventories Report
This report reviews weekly oil inventory data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report, Global Insights’ ARA Independent Storage and International Enterprise’s Singapore product storage