Data Vault Reports
US EIA Weekly Report
This report reviews the key data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Onyx Positioning Accumulator – 26 August 2025
When there was no commitment of traders data, technical analysts looked for a workaround to infer overall position changes in the market. The analysis tests joint changes in a futures contract’s price and open interest to determine whether long or short positions were being added or whether long or short positions were covered. These outcomes are illustrated in Table 1 below.
To build our series, we test the conditions in Table 1 below and then qualify the change as one of the four outcomes. We then count the number of occurrences of each outcome in a lookback period to give the percentage of each outcome. The four outcomes over the lookback period always add up to 100%. The look-back period rolls over daily. Table 2 shows the price implications of the four outcomes. Tables 3 and 4 illustrate Open Interest, Volume and Price relations and Open Interest, respectively.
Onyx Positioning Report – 26 August 2025
This report aims to provide a position index for energy futures between -50 and 50, with 0 as the neutral position. The full methodology is at the back of the report. When the position index is at the extremes, above 40 or below -40, the market is overstretched relative to its average position in the previous 3-year rolling window. As such, it is ripe for mean reversion. Consequently, when the index is high, deleveraging will follow, having a negative impact on price, while when the index is low, we expect accumulation that will push the price higher.
Weekly Oil Inventories Report
This report reviews weekly oil inventory data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report, Global Insights’ ARA Independent Storage and International Enterprise’s Singapore product storage
US EIA Weekly Report
This report reviews the key data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Onyx Positioning Accumulator – 19 August 2025
When there was no commitment of traders data, technical analysts looked for a workaround to infer overall position changes in the market. The analysis tests joint changes in a futures contract’s price and open interest to determine whether long or short positions were being added or whether long or short positions were covered. These outcomes are illustrated in Table 1 below.
To build our series, we test the conditions in Table 1 below and then qualify the change as one of the four outcomes. We then count the number of occurrences of each outcome in a lookback period to give the percentage of each outcome. The four outcomes over the lookback period always add up to 100%. The look-back period rolls over daily. Table 2 shows the price implications of the four outcomes. Tables 3 and 4 illustrate Open Interest, Volume and Price relations and Open Interest, respectively.
Onyx Positioning Report – 19 August 2025
This report aims to provide a position index for energy futures between -50 and 50, with 0 as the neutral position. The full methodology is at the back of the report. When the position index is at the extremes, above 40 or below -40, the market is overstretched relative to its average position in the previous 3-year rolling window. As such, it is ripe for mean reversion. Consequently, when the index is high, deleveraging will follow, having a negative impact on price, while when the index is low, we expect accumulation that will push the price higher.
Flux CFTC Style COT Reports – 18 Aug 2025
Onyx’s in-house CTA positioning model determines the net positioning of CTAs in a range of futures benchmarks. CTA positioning declined further, from -48k on 11 Aug to -69k by 18 Aug. While positioning is still marginally more bullish than the April-May lows, this leaves room for additional selling pressure. The crude benchmarks are driving the bearish tilt, with Brent futures showing the weakest net positioning. Onyx’s CTA positioning index also highlights that Brent and WTI positions are now converging toward their long-term averages, marking a steady retreat from the relatively bullish stance seen in June-July.
Refinery Margins Report
In the week ending 15 August, refinery margins fell down the forward curve, with M1 Asian Refinery Margins down to $7.78/bbl and M1 European margins to $8.25/bbl.
Weakening across the Dubai cracks were the main driver in Asian Margins, with the GO/Dubai crack falling by $2.14/bbl w/w and the Kero and 380 Cracks falling by $1.55/bbl and $1.50/bbl respectively.
Similarly, in Europe Gasoil Crack fell by $1.60/bbl, and the 3.5 Bgs Crack fell by $1.20/bbl w/w.
Gasoil Cracks saw the largest drop on a Monthly basis, with the M1 Crack in Europe falling by $3.71/bbl, the GO/Dubai Crack fell by $7.47/bbl and the Asian M1 GO/Brent Crack falling by $9.13/bbl.
Weekly Oil Inventories Report
This report reviews weekly oil inventory data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report, Global Insights’ ARA Independent Storage and International Enterprise’s Singapore product storage
US EIA Weekly Report
This report reviews the key data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Onyx Positioning Report – 12 August 2025
This report aims to provide a position index for energy futures between -50 and 50, with 0 as the neutral position. The full methodology is at the back of the report. When the position index is at the extremes, above 40 or below -40, the market is overstretched relative to its average position in the previous 3-year rolling window. As such, it is ripe for mean reversion. Consequently, when the index is high, deleveraging will follow, having a negative impact on price, while when the index is low, we expect accumulation that will push the price higher.
Flux CFTC Style COT Reports – 11 Aug 2025
Onyx’s in-house CTA positioning model determines the net positioning of CTAs in a range of futures benchmarks. CTA net long positioning increased in Brent and WTI futures, amid a stopping out of short positioning and addition to long positions, with net length in Brent rising from -5.8k lots on 25 Jul to +10k lots on 1 Aug. Net long positioning in WTI futures rose from -6k lots on 25 Jul to +6.5k lotson 1 Aug. Interestingly, however, our model anticipates a removal of these positions on 4 Aug, with the projected net length for Brent and WTI futures sitting at 5.2k lots and 4k lots, respectively. Similarly, RBOB futures also recorded a shift from net short to net long positioning, with CTA net length climbing from -3k lots on 25 Jul to +10k lots on 1 Aug, but this is projected to ease to 4.8k lots on 4 Aug. Meanwhile, the middle distillates complex recorded a circa 20% decline in net long positioning to 4.4k lots in ICE gasoil and 9k lots in NYMEX heating oil. Net positioning is projected to continue to pull back in both contracts on 4 Aug.
Bloomberg survey of crude oil price forecasts
This report compares and contrasts the Bloomberg survey of ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI forecast to their high/low range as well the forward curve
Refinery Margins Report
In the week ending 1 August, refinery margins declined across all tenors, US refineries saw the largest drop in M1 of -3.3 followed by Europe -2 and Asia -1.51.
On a month-on-month basis, margins also declined, M1 US by -4.26, Asia -3.25 and Europe -2.
In the Asian forwards curve, M2 and M3 remain slightly higher than M1. Overall the curve has flattened out but still remains in contango. The higher M2 margins are driven by stronger M2 levels across the cracks, with MOPJ, kerosene, gasoil, and 380 Dubai cracks priced higher over the past month.
The European refinery forward curve is in contango from M1 through M4 and flattens out between M4 and M7. The curve hikes up around M8.
The US refinery forward curve is in flat from M1 through M6 as the front of the curve drops compared to last week’s. Prices jump at M7 where refinery margins improve by 2.13 compared to a week ago.