Data Vault Reports
Energy futures correlation with the S&P 500 and the DXY dollar index
This report covers the correlation in daily returns (on different rolling window periods) between the main energy contracts listed on the ICE and NYMEX exchange and the S&P 500 and the DXY dollar index.
Weekly Oil Inventories Report
This report reviews weekly oil inventory data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report, Global Insights’ ARA Independent Storage and International Enterprise’s Singapore product storage
US EIA Weekly Report
This report reviews the key data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Option Open Interest Monitor
This report examines the distribution of open interest over a selected range of strikes for exchange-listed options on ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI
Onyx Positioning Report – 05 August 2025
This report aims to provide a position index for energy futures between -50 and 50, with 0 as the neutral position. The full methodology is at the back of the report. When the position index is at the extremes, above 40 or below -40, the market is overstretched relative to its average position in the previous 3-year rolling window. As such, it is ripe for mean reversion. Consequently, when the index is high, deleveraging will follow, having a negative impact on price, while when the index is low, we expect accumulation that will push the price higher.
Onyx Positioning Accumulator – 05 August 2025
When there was no commitment of traders data, technical analysts looked for a workaround to infer overall position changes in the market. The analysis tests joint changes in a futures contract’s price and open interest to determine whether long or short positions were being added or whether long or short positions were covered. These outcomes are illustrated in Table 1 below.
To build our series, we test the conditions in Table 1 below and then qualify the change as one of the four outcomes. We then count the number of occurrences of each outcome in a lookback period to give the percentage of each outcome. The four outcomes over the lookback period always add up to 100%. The look-back period rolls over daily. Table 2 shows the price implications of the four outcomes. Tables 3 and 4 illustrate Open Interest, Volume and Price relations and Open Interest, respectively.
Onyx Global Oil Balance
Update to Onyx Global Oil Balance: this update’s key revision revolves around supply, with lower non-OPEC supply growth in 2025 and an upward readjustment in Iraqi crude production following methodological changes by Petro-Logistics SA. Following a comprehensive review of Iraq’s crude balance, Petro-Logistics SA has reclassified “other” refinery feedstocks as crude oil, accounting for most of the revision in the country’s output.
This report contains Onyx Advisory’s Global Oil Liquids Balance, with projections of world oil supply (including OPEC crude oil production) and world oil demand to derive implied global oil stock changes by quarter.
The report is split into two parts: a detailed global balance on page 3 and a summary balance on page 4, which shows individual OPEC country crude production assumptions over the forecast period. The OPEC crude production level is contrasted with the ‘Call on OPEC’ crude to obtain the implied global stock change.
Historical data are sourced from the IEA, while Petro-logistics SA data are used for OPEC crude production.
FluxCFTC Style COT Reports – 04 Aug 2025
Onyx’s in-house CTA positioning model determines the net positioning of CTAs in a range of futures benchmarks. CTA net long positioning increased in Brent and WTI futures, amid a stopping out of short positioning and addition to long positions, with net length in Brent rising from -5.8k lots on 25 Jul to +10k lots on 1 Aug. Net long positioning in WTI futures rose from -6k lots on 25 Jul to +6.5k lotson 1 Aug. Interestingly, however, our model anticipates a removal of these positions on 4 Aug, with the projected net length for Brent and WTI futures sitting at 5.2k lots and 4k lots, respectively. Similarly, RBOB futures also recorded a shift from net short to net long positioning, with CTA net length climbing from -3k lots on 25 Jul to +10k lots on 1 Aug, but this is projected to ease to 4.8k lots on 4 Aug. Meanwhile, the middle distillates complex recorded a circa 20% decline in net long positioning to 4.4k lots in ICE gasoil and 9k lots in NYMEX heating oil. Net positioning is projected to continue to pull back in both contracts on 4 Aug.
ETFs Report
Click below to explore our ETFs report, providing a detailed analysis of price movements, trading volume, and counterparty shifts in ETF underlyings, along with open interest trends in the options market. Featured funds include USO, SCO, UCO, KOLD, BOIL, and UNG. For each ETF, we offer a comprehensive breakdown of price trends, volume, open interest, and key market participants.
Refinery Margins Report
In the week ending 1 August, refinery margins declined across all tenors, US refineries saw the largest drop in M1 of -3.3 followed by Europe -2 and Asia -1.51.
On a month-on-month basis, margins also declined, M1 US by -4.26, Asia -3.25 and Europe -2.
In the Asian forwards curve, M2 and M3 remain slightly higher than M1. Overall the curve has flattened out but still remains in contango. The higher M2 margins are driven by stronger M2 levels across the cracks, with MOPJ, kerosene, gasoil, and 380 Dubai cracks priced higher over the past month.
The European refinery forward curve is in contango from M1 through M4 and flattens out between M4 and M7. The curve hikes up around M8.
The US refinery forward curve is in flat from M1 through M6 as the front of the curve drops compared to last week’s. Prices jump at M7 where refinery margins improve by 2.13 compared to a week ago.
Energy futures correlation with the S&P 500 and the DXY dollar index
This report covers the correlation in daily returns (on different rolling window periods) between the main energy contracts listed on the ICE and NYMEX exchange and the S&P 500 and the DXY dollar index.
US EIA Weekly Report
This report reviews the key data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Onyx Positioning Report – 29 July 2025
This report aims to provide a position index for energy futures between -50 and 50, with 0 as the neutral position. The full methodology is at the back of the report. When the position index is at the extremes, above 40 or below -40, the market is overstretched relative to its average position in the previous 3-year rolling window. As such, it is ripe for mean reversion. Consequently, when the index is high, deleveraging will follow, having a negative impact on price, while when the index is low, we expect accumulation that will push the price higher.
Onyx Positioning Accumulator – 29 July 2025
When there was no commitment of traders data, technical analysts looked for a workaround to infer overall position changes in the market. The analysis tests joint changes in a futures contract’s price and open interest to determine whether long or short positions were being added or whether long or short positions were covered. These outcomes are illustrated in Table 1 below.
To build our series, we test the conditions in Table 1 below and then qualify the change as one of the four outcomes. We then count the number of occurrences of each outcome in a lookback period to give the percentage of each outcome. The four outcomes over the lookback period always add up to 100%. The look-back period rolls over daily. Table 2 shows the price implications of the four outcomes. Tables 3 and 4 illustrate Open Interest, Volume and Price relations and Open Interest, respectively.
Onyx CFTC Style COT Reports – 28 Jul 2025
Onyx’s in-house CTA positioning model determines the net positioning of CTAs in a range of futures benchmarks. CTAs have gone increasingly net short in WTI, with net positioning declining from -1.1k lots on 18 Jul to -6k lots on 25 Jul. Meanwhile, Brent futures saw a relatively calmer decline of 32% w/w to -5.8k lots on 28 Jul. In refined products, middle distillate fuel oil continues to see net long positioning by CTAs and recorded a relatively stagnant week, with net length coming off by 4% w/w in both Heating Oil and ICE LS Gasoil to +5.8k lots and +10.5k lots, respectively. Finally, RBOB futures saw a remarkable 180% removal in net long positions w/w from +3.8k lots on 18 Jul to -3k lots on 25 Jul.