Looking at the past week, the oil market was too long and had to de-risk.
Brent Futures saw a week of stagnation and mean reversion, $90/bbl oil was very short lived and sell-off was driven by speculative positioning cycles as market participants took off length amid a waning geopolitical premium.
Looking to the refinery margin change, Dated Brent was weaker than last week and is now seeing a little bit of support, whilst gasoil continued to weaken. Martha notes the difference between the straight run and more complex products including some interesting moves in VGO prices.
The ones to watch this week are gold and tech stocks. Gold broke higher out of the $2080 resistance level the same week S&P and Nasdaq topped. However tech stock giant, Nvidia was down 21.8% from all-time highs on the week.
The big stories to follow in our “Googling Oil” segment this week are; US reimposing oil sanctions on Venezuela after broken election promises and Louisiana State University allowing Shell to influence studies after a $25m donation.
The Trade Idea for this week is to go long May Gasoline E/W.