Trade Idea: Long Sep 25 EBOB Crack
Trade Setup:
- Entry Level: Around $13.00 (USD/bbl)
- Stop Loss: $12.50 (risking $0.50 per barrel)
- Target: $14.50 to $15.00, offering a 3:1 to 4:1 risk/reward
- Size: 2,000 barrels (standard $1,000 risk with $0.50 per barrel stop)
Source: Onyx Markets
Source: Flux
Why:
- EBOB cracks have recently sold off from $15 to $13, creating a potential opportunity for a rebound
- Current levels represent a consolidation zone around $13, forming a technically attractive base for a long entry
- The $0.50 stop sits just below recent lows ($12.50 – $12.60), offering a clean technical containment
- With summer demand peaking, bullish seasonal trends support higher gasoline crack values
- Targets around $14.50 and $15.00 align with recent July highs, offering clear upside levels
Setup Advantages:
- Clean, simple expression of a bullish gasoline crack fire with defined risk
- No scaling in – full size placed at once due to low volatility enviroment
- Straightforward setup ideal for short-term summer trading themes
- Avoids August expiry risks by using the September contract, giving time for the trade to develop
Conclusion
The EBOB crack offers a compelling tactical long setup into peak summer. With strong seasonality and recent price consolidation providing a solid technical foundation, this trade balances defined risk with attractive reward potential.
CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.