Morning Macro 5th September
With the month’s key macro data today U.S. non-farm payrolls (estimate is +75k and unemployment rate to rise to 4.3%) this week’s anecdotal data has been weaker than expected, ISM employment, ADP, JOLTS and Challenger layoffs.
ADP: US Firms Add 54,000 Jobs in ADP Data, Less Than Forecast (est +68k)
Employment components in both ISM Manufacturing (blue) and Employment (orange) remained in contraction in August (Chart 1, Bloomberg, @LizAnnSonders)
In August, ISM Services (orange) was in a much better place relative to Manufacturing (blue), with latter remaining in contraction (Chart 2, Bloomberg, @LizAnnSonders)
GOLDMAN SAYS GOLD NEAR $5,000 POSSIBLE IF FED STANDING DAMAGED
STABLECOIN GROUP TETHER HOLDS TALKS TO INVEST IN GOLD MINERS – FT
Weaker news out of Germany: GERMANY JULY FACTORY ORDERS FALL 2.9% M/M; EST. +0.5% – BBG *GERMANY JULY FACTORY ORDERS FALL 3.4% Y/Y; EST. -0.6%
Germany July industrial orders -2.9% vs +0.5% m/m expected
REDFIN: U.S. HOUSING MARKET SEES RECORD IMBALANCE — SELLERS OUTNUMBER BUYERS BY OVER 500,000, LARGEST GAP EVER RECORDED
John Williams, the President of New York Fed: “I expect GDP growth this year to be between 1-1/4 and 1-1/2 percent. With this slowdown in growth, I expect the unemployment rate to gradually rise to about 4-1/2 percent next year. And I expect PCE inflation to come in between 3 and 3-1/4 percent this year, before declining to around 2-1/2 percent next year, and reaching 2 percent in 2027.”
Chinese stocks bounce back from yesterday’s sell off….. CHINA’S CHINEXT PRICE INDEX EXTENDED INTRADAY GAINS TO 6%. SHANGHAI COMPOSITE INDEX UP MORE THAN 1%. BLUE-CHIP CSI300 INDEX UP 2%.
Data today – US August Jobs Report, UK retail sales, Canadian jobs data
