Morning Macro 19th December
Japan hikes 25bp as expected, BOE cuts 25 as expected (but split 5-4), US CPI comes in way below expectations (but ignored due to huge BLS adjustments) and ECB on hold as expected but they lower their inflation forecasts for 2026. Disinflation will be next years Eurozone story with rate cuts more likely than hikes. Despite all the events markets did very little, bonds yields edged lower on the CPI data with equities creeping higher, and precious metals nudged higher with gold close to breaking all-time highs at $4,381. (Chart 1, Gold, Bloomberg)
UK retail sales weaker than expected -0.1% MoM (est +0.4%), +0.6% YoY (est +0.9%).
Trump Media jumps 28% on news the company is venturing into fusion power plant development.
Data today – UniMich consumer sentiment
