In the week ending 14 Oct, the M1 Brent futures contract saw initial strength, reaching $66.47/bbl on 08 Oct before falling to $62.15/bbl on 10 Oct. Concerns over Russian fuel shortages supported prices early in the week before a Gaza ceasefire deal offset bullish sentiment, pressuring prices. The contract briefly recovered to $63.90/bbl on 13 October as US President Trump announced new tariffs on China, though prices eased to $62.48/bbl at the week’s close. The Nov’25 RBOB swaps crack choppily traded in the week ending 14 Oct but remained stuck in the $12/bbl handle. ICE gasoil cracks steadily rose in the week ending 14 Oct, from $23.89/bbl to $24.80/bbl on 14 Oct. However, prices saw a sharp drop in the afternoon of 14 Oct as trade tensions between the US and China escalated, dropping to $23.51/bbl on week’s close.
This week in Brent, we anticipate money managers to be bearish, trimming longs and adding to shorts. However, these volumes are expected to be offset by heavily risk-on producers/merchants this week, who are expected to add to both their longs and shorts in Brent, RBOB futures, and gasoil.
Further detailed information on other categories and contracts can be found in the report.
