Over the past week, the Jan’25 Brent futures contract initially saw strength, rising from an intraday low of just under $73/bbl on 21 Nov up to a weekly high of $75.30/bbl on 22 Nov. However, weakness quickly followed as Brent sold off by almost $2 to $73.15/bbl on 25 Nov, inching further down to $72.60/bbl at the time of writing on 28 Nov. Crude oil markets were pressured down by news of progress in Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire talks, with both sides formally reaching an agreement for a 60-day truce on 26 Nov. In line with this bearish sentiment, Onyx’s weekly CFTC COT predictor anticipates speculative players to be risk-off, removing longs while adding to their short positions, for the week ending 26 Nov. Managed-by-money long positions are expected to decrease by 8.9mb, compared to last week’s increase of 9.8mb, while speculative players are projected to increase their short positions by 2.7mb.
