The Jan’25 Brent futures contract initially was rangebound between $74 and $75.50/bbl into the week ending 29 Oct. However, the Jan’25 contract sold-off on 28 Oct to an intraday low of almost $71.00/bbl, following Israel’s 26 Oct retaliation on Iran. Prices were pressured down amid fading geopolitical risk premia, with Israel’s attack solely targeting Iranian military targets and leaving nuclear and oil infrastructure unscathed. In line with this weakness, Onyx’s weekly CFTC COT predictor anticipates a large reduction in speculative long positions in Brent alongside an increase in shorts for the week ending 29 Oct. In addition, we expect producers/merchants to be risk-off, removing 2.6mb in longs and 17.6mb in shorts, while other reportable players are projected to add 5.1mb in longs and remove 14.4mb in shorts.
