In the week ending 27 May, the M1 Brent futures contract trended sideways, moving between $63.50/bbl and $66.50/bbl, closing the week at $64.30/bbl. OPEC+ maintained its output policy and the US barred Chevron from exporting Venezuelan crude. Despite earlier expectations of a production increase, OPEC+ instead focused on long-term planning for 2027 output baselines, while a separate group of eight OPEC+ members will decide on a potential July output hike. Additional support for prices came from declining US crude inventories, flat non-OPEC+ production, and potential supply disruptions from Canadian wildfires and geopolitical developments in Iran and Ukraine.
Interestingly, however, Onyx’s weekly CFTC COT predictor forecasts money managers will remove length in Brent futures, but add length in ICE LS gasoil futures and the US RBOB gasoline futures.
