Throughout the week to 08 Oct, the Dec’24 Brent futures contract rallied from an intraday low of $70.34/bbl on 01 Oct up to an intraday high of $81.15/bbl on 07 Oct, before tapering off slightly on 08 Oct to the $77.50/bbl handle by the end of the day. This rally came alongside a regional escalation of conflict in the Middle East, following Iran’s 02 Oct missile attack on Israel. However, prices inched down slightly on 08 Oct as the market shifted its focus to poor Chinese oil demand. In line with this increased strength, Onyx’s weekly CFTC COT predictor anticipates an increase of speculative long positions in Brent alongside a small reduction in shorts for the week ending 08 Oct. Notably, we anticipate both long and short prod/merc positions in Brent futures to increase by 34.7mb and 45.3mb w/w, respectively.
