In the week ending 18 Nov, the M1 Brent futures contract traded down from $65.03/bbl on 11 Nov to $63.16/bbl on 13 Nov. Prices found support here, rising to $64.92/bbl by the week’s close. Initial pressure in the contract was seen as an OPEC report suggested that global oil supply will closely match demand in 2026, shifting away from its earlier deficit forecast. Meanwhile, the IEA also shifted away from its ‘peak oil’ narrative on 13 Nov, stating that oil demand will likely increase in the next year. However, prices rose as Iran seized an oil tanker shortly after it passed the Strait of Hormuz, signalling growing geopolitical tensions. Dec’25 RBOB futures crack eased this week, from $16.93/bbl on 12 Nov to $16.30/bbl by week’s close. In contrast, Dec’25 ICE gasoil swap crack prices rose from $32.80/bbl on 12 Nov to $38.42/bbl by week’s close.
This week in Brent and ICE gasoil, money managers are expected to cut length and increase shorts; these players are expected to take the opposite stance in RBOB futures. Producers/merchants are anticipated to be risk-on in Brent, adding exposure across the board while taking the opposite stance in ICE gasoil and RBOB.
Further detailed information on other categories and contracts can be found in the report.
