In the week ending 9 Sep, the M1 Brent futures contract dropped significantly at first, from $69.55/bbl on 2 Sep to finally seeing support around the $65/bbl handle on 5 Sep. Prices climbed to a high of $67.37/bbl on 9 Sep, before easing to $66.50/bbl. The contract finally broke above $67/bbl and sits at $67.40/bbl at the time of writing on 11 Sep, although still below the week ending 2 Sep’s highs. With this, Flux Insight’s CFTC predictor expects a removal of 12.4mb in long speculative risk in the week ending 9 Sep. Should this hold, it would mark the first removal of longs after three weeks of additions to length.
Interestingly, producers/merchants are expected to add to risk this week, with long prod/mercs notably expected to add around 12.4mb to their longs. Should this hold, it would signal that the aforementioned money managers looking to offload their long risk may have provided liquidity to these hedgers.
Further detailed information on other categories and contracts can be found in the report.
