In the week ending 09 Dec, the M1 Brent futures contract initially rose from $62.44/bbl on 02 Dec to the week’s high of $64.09/bbl on 05 Dec. Levels were supported early in the week by failed peace talks between the US and Russia, as Russian President Vladimir Putin declared that the nation was “ready” for war with Europe, should one break out. From here, prices fell to $62.02/bbl by the week’s close, in part due to Iraq restoring oil operations at its West Qurna-2 oilfield (capacity 460kb/d), following an earlier leak on an export pipeline. The M1 RBOB swap crack weakened in the week ending 09 Dec, from $15.59/bbl on 02 Dec to $13.71/bbl by the week’s close. M1 ICE gasoil saw more volatility than the other two contracts, though ultimately eased roughly $1 w/w to $24.45/bbl at week’s close.
This week in Brent and ICE gasoil, money managers are expected to be risk-off as they trim their longs and add to their shorts. In RBOB, these players are expected to add length while leaving their shorts unchanged. Producers/merchants are expected to be risk-on across the board in Brent and RBOB, taking the opposite stance in ICE gasoil.
Further detailed information on other categories and contracts can be found in the report.
