In the week ending 19 Aug, the M1 (Oct’25) Brent futures contract traded sideways, oscillating between the $65 and $66/bbl handles to finally sit at $66/bbl on 19 Aug. The contract subsequently saw more support following an EIA-reported decline in US crude oil inventories, which now sits at $67.30/bbl at the time of writing on 21 Aug. The M1 (Sep’25) ICE gasoil SwSw crack remains rangebound between $20 and $23/bbl, printing at $22.70/bbl on 19 Aug and inching up to $22.85/bbl at the time of writing. Finally, gasoline has seen more support, with the M1 RBBR (Sep’25) SwSw rising from $15.15/bbl on 13 Aug to a high of $16/bbl on 20 Aug, where it met resistance and softened to $15.87/bbl.
We anticipate money managers to add to long and short risk in Brent futures in the week ending 19 Aug, albeit more significantly in long positions. On the contrary, producers/merchants are expected to add to their sell-side positions to a higher degree than their longs, which would point towards increased producer hedging. In the refined products, while RBOB futures and ICE gasoil futures are expected to see a rise in speculative length in the week ending 19 Aug, ICE gasoil is forecast to see a more significant removal of short managed-by-money positions relative to an increase in longs, perhaps due to an overcrowded market with a long bias capping further length into the market.
Further detailed information on other categories and contracts can be found in the report.
